Maritime traffic through Strait of Hormuz drops sharply amid Iran conflict

Since the beginning of the Iran war on 28 February 2026, maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has declined by roughly 95 percent. The narrow waterway, which previously saw an average of 138 ships per day and carries about one-fifth of the world's oil, now handles only about five to six vessels daily.

Roughly one-third of recent crossings involve ships with Iranian connections, including Iranian-flagged vessels or those under international sanctions for links to Tehran's oil trade. Other ships continuing to use the route are linked to China, India, and Greece, says the BBC.

To avoid attacks or mines, many vessels are abandoning international navigation channels to "hug" the Iranian coastline, effectively entering Iran's territorial waters and following Tehran's maritime rules. Security experts say some ships may have safety agreements with Iranian authorities as long as they remain within defined lanes.

The conflict has led to at least 20 attacks on commercial vessels off the Iranian coast. The incidents have involved drones, missiles, fast attack boats, and possibly mines. Recent casualties include the Thai-flagged Mayuree Naree, where three crew members went missing after an explosion, and the US-owned MT Safesea Vishnu, which reported one fatality.

In addition to following Iranian directions, many vessels are switching off their Automatic Identification System (AIS) trackers as they enter the Gulf of Oman. This tactic allows ships to "disappear" from monitoring maps until they reach safer waters.

"The vast majority of maritime traffic has ceased," said one source, "but some ships are still granted or manage safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz for several reasons tied to political connections, adherence to Iranian regulations, and potential private agreements."

Ships continuing to transit the strait include:

• Vessels with Iranian connections: Approximately one-third of recent crossings, including 14 Iranian-flagged ships and others under sanctions due to suspected links to Tehran's oil trade.

• Ships linked to China and India: Nine ships owned by companies in China and six vessels listing India as their destination.

• Greek-owned vessels: While some have been targeted, others have successfully docked at Iranian ports.

• Ships following Iranian directions: Certain vessels, including a Pakistan-flagged oil tanker, have "hugged" the Iranian coastline instead of using traditional international lanes, likely following rules or lanes dictated by Tehran.

• Ships using "dark" transit tactics: Many ships switch off AIS trackers to evade detection, reappearing on maps only after passing the high-risk zone.

The geography of the strait, with its narrow and shallow channels and mountainous coastline, increases the risks for commercial crews, who have very little time to respond to elevated attacks.

The decline in traffic has contributed to higher global energy prices and market volatility. In India, shortages of natural gas have reportedly forced households to return to using biomass fuels, such as firewood and cow dung, for cooking.

Despite the small number of vessels still navigating the strait, experts warn that the area remains highly volatile and dangerous.