Iran left isolated as Middle East rallies behind Gaza ceasefire

As the Middle East broadly welcomes the newly brokered ceasefire in the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza, Iran finds itself increasingly isolated and weakened — arguably at one of its lowest points since the 1979 Islamic Revolution.

For decades, Tehran has maintained what it calls an "Axis of Resistance," supporting militant groups and allied governments opposed to Israel and the United States. But during Israel's latest offensive on Gaza, its forces also targeted senior militant leaders abroad, including figures from Hamas, Lebanon's Hezbollah, and even Iran's own military and nuclear establishment — killing many and disrupting Tehran's influence.

As US President Donald Trump prepares for a Middle East visit where both Arab and Israeli leaders are expected to praise the ceasefire deal, Iran remains notably absent from the table, still reeling from June's 12-day conflict.

"How Iran's leadership responds in the coming weeks — whether by retaliation or focusing on its struggling economy — will be crucial," said Ali Vaez, Iran project director at the International Crisis Group. "Undoubtedly, this is not a proud moment for Iran. Its alliance system lies in ruins, but that doesn't mean the 'Axis of Resistance' is over."

Iran tries to save face

Iranian state media has portrayed the ceasefire as a Hamas victory, despite Gaza's devastation and over 67,000 Palestinian deaths, according to the enclave's Health Ministry. The ministry does not distinguish between civilians and combatants but says about half the victims are women and children.

Iran's Foreign Ministry said it welcomed "any decision that guarantees halting the genocide of Palestinians." Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi reiterated the stance, telling state TV that Tehran has "always supported any plan or action that stops the crimes and genocide committed by Israel."

However, an adviser to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei suggested the truce could shift conflict elsewhere in the region.

"The start of the ceasefire in Gaza may mark the behind-the-scenes end of the ceasefire somewhere else," Ali Akbar Velayati wrote on X, hinting at potential escalations involving Hezbollah, Yemen's Houthi rebels, or Iraqi militias.

Public anxiety remains high in Iran amid fears of renewed Israeli strikes, particularly as much of its air defense system was reportedly destroyed in June. Khamenei has not resumed his customary public addresses, and Iran skipped its annual military parade marking the end of the Iran-Iraq war in September — an event typically showcasing its drones and missiles.

Meanwhile, Iran's sanctions-hit economy continues to falter as global energy prices decline.

"Iran has always acted in its own interest, but now our resources are gone and our economy is weak," said Tehran-based analyst Saeed Leilaz. "Our support for Hamas was a reaction to the US, aimed at diverting pressure from our borders."

Others are more blunt. "Iran is like a bankrupt gambler," said Amir Kazemi, a university student in Tehran. "It celebrated when Hamas attacked Israel, but after the ceasefire, it finds nothing left in its pocket."

A changed Middle East

After its 1979 revolution, Iran sought to export its Shiite ideology across the region. Following the devastating 1980s war with Iraq, Tehran instead pursued deterrence, as Arab neighbors armed themselves with US-supplied jets, bombs, and tanks.

The 1991 Gulf War saw a growing US military presence across the Gulf, fueling Tehran's resentment. Iran's regional influence peaked after the 2003 US invasion of Iraq and Yemen's descent into civil war, when it could count on Hezbollah, Syria's Bashar Assad, Yemen's Houthis, Iraq's militias, and even Hamas — a Sunni movement.

Today, that landscape has shifted dramatically. Syrian rebels overthrew Assad last year, Israeli airstrikes have killed top Hezbollah and Hamas leaders, and Iraqi militias have largely faded. The Houthis, while still capable of attacking Israeli or commercial targets in the Red Sea, are now facing precise Israeli counterstrikes.

The June war also crippled Iran's nuclear program, which Western powers have long suspected of weapons potential.

'Collapsing regional clout'

Tehran has received little tangible support from its key partners China and Russia — despite supplying cheap oil to Beijing and drones to Moscow for its war in Ukraine. At home, authorities face growing defiance as more women reject the compulsory hijab, while executions of prisoners have surged to their highest level in decades.

"The ceasefire underscores Tehran's collapsing regional influence following the breakdown of its once-powerful 'Axis of Resistance' since 2024," said Ali Fathollah-Nejad, director of the Berlin-based Center for Middle East and Global Order. "It will also free up Israeli military capacity, which could now be redirected against Iranian interests — either in Lebanon or inside Iran itself."

US President Donald Trump hailed Iran's acceptance of the ceasefire as "terrific news," though there has been no indication of renewed talks over Tehran's nuclear program.

"Iran is running out of time," said Vaez of the International Crisis Group. "But the bigger problem is that no one is offering Tehran an exit ramp — and even if they did, it's unclear whether its leaders would take it.