Houthis seize strategic ground along Red Sea, raising risks for global shipping

Houthi rebels in Yemen have rapidly advanced along the Red Sea coast in recent days, taking control of the vital port of Mocha and strategic islands near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, raising fresh concerns over a key route for global shipping.

The strait is a major maritime chokepoint connecting the Mediterranean Sea with the Indian Ocean. With the Strait of Hormuz opening and closing intermittently this year, Bab el-Mandeb has become an increasingly important alternative route for oil, liquefied natural gas (LNG) and other goods moving through the region, reports The Conversation.

Saudi Arabia, in particular, has been diverting up to 64% of its oil exports through the East-West pipeline to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, from where the oil is shipped through Bab el-Mandeb.

Just days ago, drones struck the Saudi pipeline, pushing oil prices higher. The damage is expected to take weeks to repair. The attacks reportedly originated in Iraq and appeared to have been carried out by an Iranian-backed armed group.

For now, shipping through the Red Sea appears to be continuing largely unaffected. However, the latest escalation could have wider consequences as the conflict between the United States and Iran continues.

Another blow to oil markets

The Houthis' territorial gains add to pressure on Saudi oil exports. Their advance is part of Yemen's ongoing civil war between the Iran-backed Houthis and the Saudi-backed government, the Presidential Leadership Council.

Saudi Arabia was actively involved in a combined air and limited ground campaign against the Houthis from 2015 until a truce was reached in 2022. The fragile truce held until this year.

The Houthis have said Saudi vessels and the country's oil sector are direct targets. But countries across Europe, Asia and Africa also depend on goods moving through Bab el-Mandeb.

Mocha is about 75 kilometres north of the strait. From this strategic position, the Houthis could disrupt shipping in and out of Bab el-Mandeb.

Maritime traffic can be brought to a halt using relatively light asymmetric means, including drones, anti-ship missiles and fast attack boats.

Preparing for a long war

The Houthis' growing control over a vital Red Sea shipping route marks a significant development in the ongoing conflict involving the United States and Iran. It suggests the group, and by extension Iran, may be preparing for a prolonged confrontation with Washington.

Although Iran has not directly acknowledged involvement in the operation, the analysis cited by The Conversation argues that it is highly unlikely the Houthis would have acted without Tehran's approval. Iran and the Houthis now have significant leverage over two vital waterways for global shipping.

The timing and strategic importance of the gains also suggest the move was not coincidental, according to the analysis. It indicates Iran may be seeking to use its leverage to increase pressure on the global economy, the US and neighbouring countries.

Disruption becomes a new reality for global shipping

Global supply chains have become increasingly vulnerable to geopolitical disruptions.

Even before the US-Iran conflict began earlier this year, a 2025 UN Trade and Development report projected that shipping disruptions could continue until at least 2030, with rerouting becoming increasingly common.

The latest Houthi advance also points to an erosion of US influence over global shipping. US President Donald Trump said on 12 September that the Houthis had asked Washington not to intervene.

He also declined a request from the Saudi Crown Prince to join Saudi strikes against Houthi targets in Yemen.

As Bab el-Mandeb becomes increasingly dangerous, countries in the region are likely to step up efforts to develop road and rail routes for transporting goods out of the region.

However, building and fully operationalising such alternatives will take time, and they will not be able to handle the same volume of goods as maritime routes.

Meanwhile, higher fuel prices and rising inflation could put further pressure on the global economy, forcing it to adjust to a changing trade environment.

Europe could be drawn into the conflict

A complete closure of Bab el-Mandeb could draw European allies more directly into the US-Iran conflict, something they have so far sought to avoid.

European leaders have refused to join the US in a military blockade of the Strait of Hormuz or efforts to reopen the waterway by force. Trump has criticised European leaders for their reluctance to join the US war with Iran.

The situation is different in Bab el-Mandeb. The European Union is involved in protecting freedom of navigation in the Red Sea through a defensive maritime operation.

A prolonged crisis could therefore draw European countries more directly into confrontation with the Iranian-backed Houthis and potentially Iran.

Could the crisis escalate further?

The direction of the crisis will depend largely on the actions of Saudi Arabia and the Houthis in the coming weeks.

According to Houthi-controlled media, Saudi Arabia carried out air strikes this week on Mocha airport and other targets in Yemen.

If Saudi Arabia resumes an all-out bombing campaign, it would decisively break the 2022 truce with the Houthis.

Another key question is how far the Houthis will use their new strategic position around Bab el-Mandeb to target commercial vessels.

In August, the Houthis targeted a cargo ship in the Red Sea, killing six people.

Any further attacks on commercial vessels resulting in additional loss of life could trigger a response from Saudi Arabia, the EU and possibly the US.