Orban's defeat topples a pillar of Europe's far right, prompts scrutiny of MAGA links

Highlights:

• Orban's defeat weakens European far right's influence
• Ties to MAGA movement seen as liability by some far-right politicians
• Orban-backed institutes may persist despite loss, allies remain optimistic

Europe's far right has lost one of its biggest champions with the defeat of Hungary's nationalist leader Viktor Orban in Sunday's election.

Orban's government provided a blueprint for right-wing populist and illiberal politicians, earning plaudits from the likes of US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin.

In his 16 years in office, he promoted ethno-nationalism, clamped down on civil society and the media, and fought against immigration, LGBTQ rights and liberalism. He was also the European leader with by far the closest ties to Trump's MAGA movement – illustrated by Vice President JD Vance's visit to Budapest to endorse him last week.

His loss - blamed on Hungarians' dissatisfaction with the economy, corruption and curbs on democratic freedoms - deprives the growing European far right not only of a model for the nationalist governments they aspire to establish across the region, but a deeply resourced ally who ploughed hundreds of millions of dollars into championing those ideologies.

"Orban has been pretty much the figurehead of the European far right for the last few years and even beyond the European far right," said Gabriela Greilinger, a doctoral researcher based in the United States, focusing on the European far right and democratic erosion.

"He has been the model because he was able to cling to power for so long and really entrench himself and his ideology in the state. And that's something that most other far-right parties have not been able to do so far."

Orban's closeness to the MAGA movement is now seen as a double-edged sword by some far-right politicians, with Trump's threats to seize Greenland and the war with Iran contributing to his deep unpopularity in Europe.

Orban's "ostentatious friendship" with the current US administration "hung like millstones around Orban's neck," wrote Alternative for Germany lawmaker Matthias Moosdorf on X on Monday.

EU veto power

Orban's legacy of regularly wielding Hungary's veto power at the European Union, often to block financing for Ukraine or Russian sanctions, drew praise from other political leaders keen to see the bloc undermined.

"He was a thorn in the side to the EU and that was a good thing," said Ben Habib, the leader of the Advance UK party, an anti-immigration party launched in Britain last year.

In the wake of Orban's defeat by the pro-EU Peter Magyar, Alice Weidel, co-leader of Alternative for Germany, wrote on X: "His achievements for his homeland and his contributions to Europe continue to inspire us to stand up for a continent of sovereign nations."

Much of Orban's influence came not only from his success at home, but his ability to spread his ideas and policies.

With government funding and corporate stakes, Orban gave the equivalent of over a billion dollars to the likes of the Mathias Corvinus Collegium (MCC), a private research institute, and the Danube Institute, which have acted as ideological arms of his Fidesz party.

"Budapest became a pilgrimage - people were over there all the time from MAGA world, so it was a successful strategy," said Daniel Fried, a fellow at the Atlantic Council think tank in Washington, DC.

Political conferences hosted groups from other parts of Europe and the US, including some of the most influential organisations in the current Trump administration such as the Heritage Foundation, America First Policy Institute and Alliance Defending Freedom.

The influence of the Orban-aligned institutes was also palpable in Washington, DC as Trump prepared to begin his second term as US president, said Jacob Ross, a research fellow at the German Council on Foreign Relations.

"I was really surprised to see how many Hungarian delegations were there, how active the Hungarian embassy in DC was interacting with Heritage," he said.

Magyar said on Monday the government would no longer use taxpayer money to finance organisations like MCC or political party events.

But the institutes have already been effective, and are unlikely to disappear even with their funding changed, said Greilinger.

"Most of these organisations are also there to ensure that these ideas kind of live on even beyond the rule of the leader, or in this case, beyond the rule of Viktor Orban," she said.

Orban allies remain optimistic

Orban's European allies also said they believed momentum was still behind them, and that after so long in power governments often face growing dissatisfaction.

"We are going to miss the support of the Hungarian government, but let's see how we move from here," said Tânger Corrêa, a member of the European Parliament in the Patriots for Europe group, which includes Fidesz.

Corrêa said polls were promising for France's National Rally ahead of next year's presidential elections, and last year his own Chega party became the second-largest parliamentary force in Portugal.

"It's not pleasant that one of our members lost an election," said Corrêa.

"But it's life, we move on."