Iran conflict may strain US missile supplies for Ukraine

The United States' military engagement in Iran could affect the supply of US-made air defence missiles to Ukraine, analysts and officials said, as Russia continues to strike Ukrainian cities without signs of slowing.

Since US and Israeli strikes on Iran began on 1 March, Tehran has launched hundreds of ballistic missiles and drones at Gulf countries. Most have been intercepted, including with PAC-3 Patriot missile interceptors that Ukraine relies on to defend its energy and military infrastructure.

The roughly 600 PAC-3s produced annually by Lockheed Martin are already insufficient to cover US needs and those of Gulf allies, let alone Ukraine's, said Serhii Kuzan, head of the Kyiv-based Ukrainian Security and Cooperation Center think tank.

"It's the very simple mathematics of war," Kuzan said, adding that the Franco-Italian SAMP/T air-defence system, which has similar capabilities, had not ramped up production fast enough to offer an alternative.

Fabian Hoffmann, a doctoral research fellow at Oslo University who specialises in missiles, said stockpiling of Patriots by Gulf states meant they were unlikely to run out completely, particularly as the intensity of Iranian missile bombardments appeared to be decreasing, but they might need to become more selective in their use as time goes on.

A wider shortage could be avoided if the US and Israel succeed in destroying Iran's missile stockpiles and launchers, according to Mykola Bielieskov of the state-run National Institute for Strategic Studies in Kyiv.

Russia, which has invested heavily in military production, has fired more than 700 missiles during this year's winter campaign against Ukraine's energy infrastructure, Kyiv says. Last month, it launched 32 ballistic missiles in a single night.

The majority of Patriots supplied to Ukraine are provided by European nations under the Prioritised Ukraine Requirements List (PURL), a NATO-led initiative launched last year to purchase US-made weapons for Kyiv. Ukraine's allies have committed to send 37 PAC-3 missiles since their last meeting in mid-February, a source with knowledge of the matter told Reuters. Italy has ruled out diverting Kyiv's missiles to support Gulf states, according to a separate source.

However, two European diplomats expressed concern that a protracted Iran war could delay PURL supplies as the US depletes its own stockpiles. A senior US defence official confirmed production-related delays in the past and said logjams could worsen if the conflict in Iran continues.

"We can only crank out so much at a time," the official said, adding that the US reserves the right to preempt deliveries to other countries at any time.

Although Lockheed Martin is scaling up PAC-3 production to 2,000 annually under a deal announced in January, that increase will come too late to prevent potential shortages this year. The Pentagon did not respond to requests for comment on weapons supplies to Ukraine.

Ukraine's peace talks affected

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on 3 March that a prolonged and intense war in Iran could reduce the air defence systems available to Ukraine and noted that Russia was preparing a new wave of attacks on infrastructure, logistics, and water supplies.

A new round of US-mediated peace talks, originally scheduled in Abu Dhabi for 6-7 March, has been postponed due to Iran's attacks on Gulf states. No new location has been announced.

"If talks do continue, Russia could try to convince a distracted US to further pressure Ukraine into accepting bad terms," said Yevhen Mahda of the Institute of World Policy in Kyiv.

Ukraine has ruled out giving up territory and has regained more land in February than it lost for the first time since 2023, according to Black Bird Group, a Finland-based security and intelligence analysis team. Emil Kastehelmi of Black Bird Group said that a severe decline in Ukraine's air defences could force the military to make difficult decisions about what to protect.

"Ukraine has to be able to protect not just energy infrastructure, but its industry and its military bases," he said.

Hoffmann added that Ukraine needs to strengthen its ability to strike at Russian missile production facilities.

"Missile defense is supposed to be a temporary measure until you can degrade the adversary's offensive capabilities," he said. "Ukraine and its allies need to invest in its missile capabilities because the payload on Ukraine's long-range drones was too small to inflict significant damage."

Last month, Ukraine said it carried out a strike using its domestically produced FP-5 Flamingo cruise missile on a Russian missile factory in the remote Udmurtia region, about 1,400 km (870 miles) from the Ukrainian border.

"In the end, Ukraine is going to have to invest in offensive capabilities," Hoffmann said. "This is the only way."