North Korea: Will Kim's daughter and sister fight for power?

Recent news out of North Korea has triggered speculation about the country's future and Kim Jong Un's plans for succession, with his sister gaining more formal power while his young daughter gains more media exposure.

Kim Yo Jong, the sister of the current leader, was promoted to the ministerial-level position of party director at the Ninth Congress of North Korea's ruling Workers' Party, state-run Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) reported last week.

She was also nominated as a candidate for the Politburo — the elite party body reporting to Kim Jong Un.

At the same time, the North Korean dictator seems to be making moves that would put his daughter Kim Ju Ae — believed to be 13 years old — as next in line to one day hold power. She has been appearing along her father's side at high-profile events, including the nighttime military parade last Wednesday.

Rivalries possible in the Kim family

Kim Jong Un's efforts to push his daughter to the forefront could trigger a power struggle with her powerful aunt, Rah Jong-yil, a former deputy chief of South Korean National Intelligence Service (NIS) and ex-ambassador to the UK, according to the UK's Telegraph.

However, another former NIS deputy chief, Han Ki Bum, told DW that such speculation of a power struggle is "a hypothetical scenario with low credibility."

"For example, psychological tensions or rivalry may exist between Ri Sol Ju, Kim Jong Un's wife, and Kim Yo Jong. Ri Sol Ju may express such struggles to her husband, but Kim Yo Jong, as the leader's aide, must heed her brother's authority. Therefore, even if tensions between them exist at present, they cannot be discussed openly," Han said.

"The key point is that Kim Ju Ae is around 13 years old and did not attend the congress. She is too young to be considered an heir," Han said. "Moreover, Kim Jong Un's own power base is not yet fully consolidated. Succession discussions are a distant scenario, relevant only if Kim were to face serious health problems around two decades from now."

Han clarified that Kim Jong Un's frequent public appearances alongside his daughter serve to underscore continuity and validate his leadership.

"Bringing Kim Ju Ae to missile launches or military training sites sends a message about the future generation," he said.

Speculation about Kim's succession 'premature'

Kim Hyongseok, a former South Korean vice minister of unification, also told DW that Kim Ju Ae may be used symbolically to represent the future generation. However, he also noted that giving her any formal title would be a tough sell due to her young age.

Regarding speculation about rivalry between Kim Jong Un's daughter and sister, the expert said this scenario was unlikely — for now.

"These rumors emerged as Kim Yo Jong gained prominence in inter-Korean and foreign policy, coinciding with renewed succession talk around Kim Ju Ae," he said. "If Kim Ju Ae were formally confirmed as successor and an unusual situation arose concerning Kim Jong Un, that possibility could be considered."

Former Unification Ministry spokesperson Jeong Joon Hee also told DW that Kim Jong Un may continue to elevate his daughter's profile informally. 

"Speculation about a power struggle is premature. A succession framework can only proceed once all challengers have been eliminated entirely," Jeong said.

He also warned that, if Kim Yo Jong ever became an obstacle to Kim Jong Un's succession plans, the North Korean leader would deal with her firmly, "regardless of the fact that she is his sister."

However, if Kim Jong Un were to die suddenly, "Kim Yo Jong could emerge as a central power figure, though ambitious figures within the military might also surface," Jeong added.

Is Kim Ju Ae already too famous to leave the country?

Another former senior South Korean Unification Ministry official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said experts remain divided on whether Kim Ju Ae has been designated as the heir.

"There may be ceremonial gestures to elevate her standing, but it is too early to formally declare her successor," the official said. "This would normally be the time for her to study abroad, as her father and aunt once did in Switzerland. However, her current level of public exposure makes overseas education difficult."

He added, "a defected North Korean diplomat once told me it would be impossible for Kim Yo Jong to become the top power holder in North Korea."

This is because "direct descendants traditionally take precedence in power succession in North Korea, making it highly unlikely for a sister to inherit leadership," according to the South Korean official.