South Korea's allies cheered Yoon's foreign policy, ignored domestic discord
Yoon is now impeached and his powers suspended - and his political implosion likely heralds the return of the political left, which is less inclined to be as unabashedly supportive of the US and Japan
As South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol's relations with the opposition broke down this year, Western diplomats hoped the internal tensions would not affect his tough stance on China and North Korea that had won praise from Washington.
It didn't work.
A focus on a foreign policy seen as favourable to the West, limited attention on the political discord in South Korea, and a hesitation to be seen interfering in domestic matters, left its partners blindsided when Yoon briefly imposed martial law on Dec. 3, analysts and current and former diplomats said.
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Yoon is now impeached and his powers suspended - and his political implosion likely heralds the return of the political left, which is less inclined to be as unabashedly supportive of the US and Japan.
"His allies in Washington are concerned about one thing and one thing only - US national security," said Karl Friedhoff of the Chicago Council on Global Affairs. "When I raised the (domestic) issue, I was bluntly told on one occasion, 'Why does that matter?' And now we're seeing why it matters."
The conservative Yoon earned wide praise in Western capitals for his signature policy goal of making South Korea a "global pivotal state" by promoting freedom, human rights and the rule of law. That policy saw Seoul weigh in more publicly on the side of Washington and NATO on hotspots such as the South China Sea, Taiwan, and Ukraine.
Philip Turner, who served as New Zealand's ambassador to Seoul until last year, said Yoon had showed autocratic tendencies particularly since the April parliamentary elections but it was seen as a typical political show of strength.
"Like Koreans themselves, including many of Yoon's own supporters, I don't think any diplomats thought that Yoon would go as far as to declare martial law with no basis – an inexcusable and inexplicable action from an ex-prosecutor who positioned himself as a champion of democracy," Turner said.
Yoon's Global Pivotal State approach will not be mourned, given the hypocrisy with which it finally collapsed, but if Yoon is ousted by the Constitutional Court following his impeachment on Saturday, the West will hope the next president upholds much of its substance in practice, Turner said.
'DEEPLY SURPRISED'
Asked shortly after the martial law attempt whether it was an intelligence failure that Washington was caught unawares by a key ally, US Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell said almost all US interlocutors in South Korea, including in the president's office, were "deeply surprised" by Yoon's move.
On Wednesday, US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan invoked the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the US Capitol by supporters of Donald Trump, when commenting on Yoon's move.
"Did not see that coming, yeah, but we had January 6, yeah," Sullivan said at an event. "So I think it's important for us to recognise that dramatic events happen even in highly advanced, consolidated democracies."
Henry Haggard, a former US diplomat posted to the embassy in Seoul until June, disputed suggestions that Western countries ignored Yoon's hardline tendencies.
"Korea chose Yoon so his foibles were relevant to South Korea, not to us," he told Reuters. "We did not expect this from Yoon, whether he was nostalgic for Korea's authoritarian past or not, because we assumed any president understood that almost no one in Korea sought to turn back the clock."
Yoon's declaration of martial law was the first time it was used since 1980 and for many South Koreans, the move brought back memories of right-wing rule by military strongmen, many of whom benefited from ties in Washington.
Elected in 2022, Yoon was widely welcomed in Washington and other Western capitals for his rhetoric defending global democracy and freedom.
Invited to make a rare address to the US Congress last year, Yoon referenced freedom and democracy a combined 55 times. Earlier this year he hosted the latest "democracy summit", taking up a US-led initiative.
But critics said that masked growing problems at home.
Yoon clashed with opposition lawmakers whom he has labelled as pro-North Korea and "anti-state forces", and press freedom organisations have criticised his heavy-handed approach to media coverage that he deemed negative.
PRESIDENCY DAMAGED
Yoon shocked the nation and the world late on Dec. 3 when he gave the military sweeping emergency powers to root out what he called "anti-state forces" and overcome obstructionist political opponents.
Martial law was in force for only six hours before Yoon backtracked in the face of bipartisan parliamentary opposition, but the damage to his presidency was done, and threatened to undermine South Korea's reputation as one of Asia's most vibrant democracies.
"I think that Yoon's outdated speeches and strong-arm tendencies were ignored because he was seen as aligning more closely with US policies towards China and Western policies towards Russia," said Ramon Pacheco Pardo, a Korea expert at Kings' College London.
Victor Cha, the Korea Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) and a former White House official, said Washington was in a no-win position.
"If it says too much too soon, then it is seen as interventionist - either in supporting or opposing the government," he said. "If it says nothing, it is seen as being aloof and complacent."
