Why Ethiopia and Eritrea have severed diplomatic ties

Eritrea officially severed diplomatic relations with Ethiopia on 1 October 2026, following a rapid escalation between the two neighbours that has coincided with some of the heaviest fighting in northern Ethiopia since the 2020–2022 Tigray civil war.

The diplomatic break followed Ethiopia's decision to close its embassy in Asmara and expel 10 Eritrean diplomats. Eritrea's Foreign Ministry said it had "no option but to reciprocate" and accused Ethiopia of pursuing a long-standing "agenda of incessant hostility," including threats to its coastal territories, says Al Jazeera.

Ethiopia, in turn, accused Eritrea of arming and backing anti-government rebel forces in northern Ethiopia.

Here is what is driving the latest crisis.

What is happening on the ground?

Fighting is active across three northern Ethiopian regions: Tigray, Amhara and Afar.

The rebel forces are organised under the Ethiopian Peoples' Forces Alliance for Survival, led by the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF).

Ethiopian federal forces and pro-government allies have made significant advances in Tigray and are pushing towards the regional capital, Mekelle. In Afar, pro-government forces recaptured the town of Erebti with Ethiopian military air support.

Despite those advances, rebel forces maintain a strong rear supply link with Eritrea along the border.

The fighting is also threatening major urban centres, including Adwa, Axum, Shire and Mekelle. Civilians have been fleeing towards Amhara and Afar.

The conflict has also reached Ethiopia's capital, Addis Ababa, where an explosion reportedly caused by small drones hit the Ministry of Defence.

Why have relations deteriorated?

Ethiopia and Eritrea were allies during the 2020–2022 civil war, when they fought against the TPLF. Their relationship has since deteriorated, with two issues at the centre of the dispute.

The first is Ethiopia's push for access to the Red Sea.

Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has explicitly sought direct sea access for landlocked Ethiopia. Asmara has interpreted that policy as an existential threat and a declaration of territorial hostility.

The second is a shift in regional alliances.

Ethiopia says Eritrea has formed an alliance with the TPLF, its former adversary, in an effort to weaken the central government in Addis Ababa.

What does the diplomatic break mean for the conflict?

The severing of diplomatic relations comes as military confrontation is intensifying in northern Ethiopia.

Eritrea's alleged support for rebel forces has become a central point of Ethiopia's accusations against Asmara, while Eritrea has accused Ethiopia of pursuing hostile policies towards its coastal territories.

The continued fighting and the reported supply link across the Eritrean border have therefore added a military dimension to the diplomatic breakdown.

Could the conflict spread beyond Ethiopia and Eritrea?

Analysts warn that the confrontation could contribute to a wider conflict in the Horn of Africa because of the region's interconnected alliances and rivalries.

Ethiopia has accused Egypt of joining Eritrea in backing Tigrayan rebels. Ethiopia and Egypt have also engaged in reciprocal diplomatic expulsions, adding to unresolved tensions over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD).

Ethiopia and Sudan are also locked in a separate dispute. Both Ethiopia and Sudan's military-backed government accuse each other of harbouring and equipping domestic rebel factions.

Horn of Africa analysts say these overlapping proxy networks involving Ethiopia, Eritrea, Egypt and Sudan have created a volatile regional environment in which a single spark could trigger a broader multi-nation war.

What are the main issues to watch?

The immediate developments are the fighting in Tigray, Amhara and Afar, the advance of federal forces towards Mekelle, and the continued rebel supply link with Eritrea.

The wider picture will depend on whether the Ethiopia-Eritrea confrontation remains focused on their bilateral dispute or becomes further connected to the conflicts and rivalries involving Egypt and Sudan.