World trade outlook uncertain for 2025 on US tariff threats: UN

World trade faces an uncertain outlook in 2025 because of the threat of trade wars, after global commerce hit a new peak this year, the UN said yesterday (5 December).

The UN trade and development agency UNCTAD said global exchanges of goods and services are expected to reach a record level of nearly $33 trillion in 2024.

"This $1 trillion increase, reflecting 3.3% annual growth, highlights resilience in global trade despite persistent challenges," the UN agency said in a statement.

But the report added that "the 2025 trade outlook is clouded by potential US policy shifts, including broader tariffs that could disrupt global value chains and impact key trading partners."

US President-elect Donald Trump has threatened to impose steeper tariffs on the country's trade partners, whom he accuses of taking advantage of the America's open markets.

While not mentioning Trump by name, the report said "such measures risk triggering retaliation and ripple effects, affecting industries and economies along entire supply chains. Even the mere threat of tariffs creates unpredictability, weakening trade, investment and economic growth."

The report said China, the European Union, and Vietnam, who all run large trade surpluses with the United States, are most exposed to tariff increases.

In 2024, trade in services, which rose 7% on the year, accounted for half of the expansion in overall trade, while goods trade grew just 2%.

The UN agency urged "developing economies to adopt targeted policies that enhance trade diversification and invest in high-value sectors to mitigate risks."

UNCTAD Secretary-General Rebeca Grynspan said that "trade remains a cornerstone of sustainable development."