Trump-Kim summit speculation ahead of South Korea visit
During his 2019 visit, Trump made a surprise trip to the North Korean border to revive stalled nuclear talks. While experts say another spontaneous meeting this time is unlikely, some predict dialogue could resume in the coming months
As US President Donald Trump prepares for his first trip to Asia since returning to office, speculation is mounting over a potential meeting with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un in South Korea.
If it happens, it would be the first summit between the two since their last impromptu encounter at the Korean border village of Panmunjom in June 2019, and the fourth overall.
During his 2019 visit, Trump made a surprise trip to the North Korean border to revive stalled nuclear talks. While experts say another spontaneous meeting this time is unlikely, some predict dialogue could resume in the coming months.
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Others argue that a quick diplomatic restart is improbable due to changes since 2019, including North Korea's expanded nuclear arsenal and increased geopolitical leverage.
Trump has repeatedly expressed interest in renewing talks with Kim, praising him as "a smart guy". Kim, breaking his silence last month, said he holds "good personal memories" of Trump and hinted at returning to negotiations if the US abandons its "delusional obsession with denuclearisation".
Neither Washington nor Pyongyang has indicated any high-level meeting before the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in South Korea on 31 October to 1 November.
However, South Korea's Unification Minister Chung Dong-young recently told lawmakers that a Panmunjom meeting could be possible following Trump's visits to Malaysia and Japan.
Analysts note that Kim now has greater leverage than in 2019. Since the collapse of prior talks, he has expanded North Korea's nuclear-capable missile arsenal, strengthened ties with Russia and China, and benefited from weakening sanctions enforcement. Experts suggest this diminishes Kim's urgency for immediate talks.
"If a meeting occurs, Trump could tout it as a diplomatic achievement, but what substantial concessions could the US offer Kim?" questioned Chung Jin-young, former dean at South Korea's Kyung Hee University.
Koh Yu-hwan, former president of South Korea's Institute of National Unification, added that any meeting around the APEC summit is unlikely to yield meaningful results unless the US brings compelling incentives.
Even without an immediate summit, the possibility of future Trump-Kim diplomacy remains. Some view it as a chance to manage North Korea's nuclear threats, while others warn against offering significant sanctions relief for limited steps, which could leave North Korea with a potent short-range nuclear capability targeting South Korea.
Experts note that any partial concessions could trigger demands from South Korea and Japan to develop their own nuclear capabilities, while North Korea is unlikely to fully abandon its nuclear programme.
