Israeli military doubts war will result in regime change in Iran

Israel's military is increasingly doubtful that the ongoing conflict with Iran will lead to regime change in the near term, raising questions about one of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's central war objectives.

According to people familiar with internal assessments, Israeli military intelligence believes the current campaign has not yet created the necessary conditions to topple Iran's leadership. Despite weeks of sustained bombardment, the Islamic Republic appears to be holding firm, reports The Financial Times.

One source, briefed on discussions within the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) intelligence branch, said the aerial offensive has not significantly weakened the regime's grip on power since the conflict began on 28 February with joint US-Israeli operations.

Analysts note that while Iran has been pressured, there are few visible signs of internal collapse. "The system has shown resilience," said Raz Zimmt, a former military intelligence specialist. "We haven't seen meaningful fractures or a breakdown in control."

As US President Donald Trump expressed a desire to scale back hostilities, Israel is said to be focusing its air campaign on military infrastructure rather than directly targeting regime stability. Recent strikes have intensified against missile production sites and defence facilities, with Israeli officials also claiming the killing of a senior naval commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

From the outset, Israeli military officials were cautious about the feasibility of achieving regime change through air power alone. Sources familiar with government discussions said the military had warned political leaders that such an outcome would be extremely difficult.

Experts suggest that any realistic attempt to destabilise Iran's government would require coordination with covert operations. Israel's intelligence agency, Mossad, has reportedly been working to fuel internal unrest and support opposition elements, including Kurdish groups, in an effort to weaken the government from within.

Early in the conflict, Israel targeted senior leadership figures, including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and other top officials, in an effort to disrupt command structures. Additional strikes have targeted security forces and local enforcement units tasked with maintaining internal order.

However, nearly four weeks into the conflict, intelligence assessments indicate that the sustained military pressure has not significantly increased the likelihood of regime collapse—either through internal dissent or external opposition forces.

While President Trump has recently suggested the conflict could conclude within weeks, senior Israeli officers have avoided framing regime change as an immediate objective. Instead, they describe the campaign as aimed at degrading Iran's military capabilities.

Prime Minister Netanyahu, however, continues to publicly emphasise the goal of creating conditions for regime change, while acknowledging that any decisive internal shift would ultimately depend on the Iranian people.

Officials and analysts now increasingly view regime change as a longer-term possibility rather than an imminent outcome. They argue that although Iran may emerge weakened economically and politically, any collapse of the ruling system would likely unfold gradually over time rather than as a direct result of the war.