Israel continues strikes in Lebanon nearly a year after ceasefire: A warning for Gaza?

Despite a ceasefire agreement nearly a year ago, Israeli airstrikes on southern Lebanon persist, and some analysts believe the situation could mirror what's to come in Gaza, where a fragile new truce is already under pressure.

On 11 October, Israeli forces bombed a construction equipment business in southern Lebanon, killing a Syrian bystander, injuring seven others - including two women - and destroying millions of dollars in heavy machinery. Though this might seem extraordinary in most countries, such attacks have become routine in Lebanon since a US-brokered truce aimed to end the fighting between Israel and Hezbollah in late 2024.

With fresh strikes hitting Gaza on Sunday following alleged Hamas fire, many fear the Gaza ceasefire could follow Lebanon's path - a ceasefire in name, but not in practice.

Mona Yacoubian of the Center for Strategic and International Studies described the Lebanon ceasefire as a "lessfire" - a loosely held truce that still allows Israel to launch strikes it considers preventive.

"This could be a preview for Gaza," she said, "where Israel claims the right to act against perceived threats without fully reigniting war."

A Ceasefire Without Clear Rules

The recent Israel-Hezbollah conflict began right after Hamas's 7 October 2023, attack on Israel, which also launched the war in Gaza. Hezbollah, allied with Hamas, began firing into Israel. Israel responded with force, and by September 2024, the fighting had escalated into open warfare.

A ceasefire agreed on November 27, 2024, required Lebanon to prevent armed attacks against Israel and Israel to stop "offensive" military actions - though both sides were allowed to respond in "self-defense." The agreement lacked strict enforcement mechanisms and gave both parties broad leeway.

A monitoring group - including the US, France, Israel, Lebanon, and UN peacekeepers (UNIFIL) - can record violations, but there are no concrete penalties. In reality, Israel has continued unilateral strikes, saying they are necessary to stop Hezbollah from regrouping and rearming.

Lebanese officials argue that such actions not only damage civilian infrastructure but also give Hezbollah justification to stay armed, undermining national efforts to disarm the group.

Since the ceasefire, Lebanon reports over 270 deaths and 850 injuries from Israeli actions. The UN confirmed that at least 107 of those killed were civilians. No Israelis have died from fire originating in Lebanon during the same period.

UNIFIL data shows around 950 projectiles and 100 airstrikes from Israel into Lebanon from late November 2024 to mid-October 2025. In contrast, Lebanon-based groups launched just 21 projectiles into Israel, and Hezbollah has publicly acknowledged only one attack.

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Following the 11 October strike in Msayleh, the Israeli military claimed it targeted machinery being used to rebuild militant infrastructure. However, local officials, Hezbollah, and the equipment's owner denied this.

"We sell to everyone, from every background," said business owner Ahmad Tabaja. "What crime have we committed?"

Lebanese President Joseph Aoun called the attack "a clear act of aggression" on civilian property, and Speaker Nabih Berri accused Israel of trying to stop post-war reconstruction. Lebanon filed a complaint with the UN Security Council.

Israel carried out further attacks days later, including one on a cement factory and a quarry, saying these too were tied to Hezbollah.

Last month, a particularly deadly strike hit a car and motorcycle in Bint Jbeil, killing car dealer Shadi Charara, three of his children - including infant twins - a motorcyclist, and wounding Charara's wife and oldest daughter. Israel claimed the target was a Hezbollah fighter but admitted civilian casualties.

Charara's sister Amina said, "My brother and his family were civilians. They had no political ties."

Even when the intended target is an actual Hezbollah member, the justification is often debated. For instance, Israel killed a visually impaired Hezbollah member and his wife earlier this month, calling him an air defense official. Hezbollah claimed he was no longer active due to his injuries.

The Collapse of "Mutual Deterrence"

Hezbollah, backed by Iran, was established in 1982 to resist Israeli occupation in southern Lebanon. After Israel's withdrawal in 2000, the group became one of the region's most powerful armed movements.

A month-long war in 2006 ended in a stalemate and ushered in years of uneasy calm, largely due to mutual deterrence - the belief that both sides would suffer in a renewed conflict.

That balance may now be gone. Nicholas Blanford of the Atlantic Council said the recent war significantly weakened Hezbollah's deterrence capacity, although it remains capable of retaliating.

In a recent interview, senior Hezbollah official Mohammad Fneish said the group won't accept the current situation but is calling on Lebanon's government to act through political and diplomatic channels for now.

"If things escalate," he warned, "resistance leadership is reviewing the situation, and all options remain on the table."

Yacoubian, however, believes meaningful change in Lebanon is unlikely without a new US-led diplomatic breakthrough. Gaza, she added, might differ due to the active roles of Qatar, Egypt, and Turkey in mediating.