How Pakistan won Trump’s trust to emerge as an unlikely mediator in the Iran war

Pakistan's emergence as a potential intermediary in the Iran war has surprised many observers but on closer examination, it may not be entirely unexpected.

A key factor lies in the relationship between Pakistan's army chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir, and US President Donald Trump. Trump has repeatedly spoken warmly of Munir, even referring to him as his "favourite" field marshal, and has suggested that the Pakistani military leader possesses deep insight into Iran, reports BBC.

Geography and diplomacy also work in Pakistan's favour. Sharing a roughly 900-kilometre border with Iran and maintaining what both sides describe as "brotherly" ties rooted in cultural and religious connections, Pakistan occupies a unique position.

Unlike several Gulf states, it hosts no US air bases and has not been directly drawn into the war, allowing it to maintain a degree of neutrality.

At the same time, Pakistan has shown willingness to step into a mediating role, quietly facilitating communication between Washington and Tehran, hosting foreign ministers from Muslim countries, and engaging in active diplomacy.

Despite this positioning, Pakistan's role is fraught with contradictions. The country remains entangled in tensions with both Afghanistan and India. It has carried out military actions along its western border, while relations with India have recently raised fears of escalation.

This raises questions about how a country managing its own regional wars can present itself as a broker of peace.

Still, Pakistan's leadership argues that past diplomatic efforts in its own conflicts have failed to deliver security, justifying its current posture.

High stakes at home

The risks for Pakistan are significant. The country relies heavily on imported oil, much of which passes through the Strait of Hormuz.

"Pakistan, I'd argue, more than almost any other country outside of the Middle East has a lot of skin in the game here," Michael Kugelman, a senior fellow for South Asia at the Atlantic Council, told the BBC.

"It has a really compelling interest to do what it can to contribute to de-escalation efforts."

Economic strain is already visible, with rising fuel prices and energy-saving measures like a reduced workweek. Analysts warn that a prolonged war could severely strain Pakistan's fragile economy.

Security concerns are equally pressing. A defence pact signed with Saudi Arabia in 2025 obliges Pakistan to consider any aggression against the kingdom as its own. If Saudi Arabia becomes directly involved in the war, Pakistan could face pressure to join, potentially exposing its western border at a time of already heightened tensions with Afghanistan.

Domestically, public sentiment presents another challenge. Demonstrations in support of Iran have already erupted in several cities, reflecting widespread sympathy for Tehran among the Pakistani population. Any perceived alignment against Iran could carry political costs.

Potential gains on the global stage

Beyond immediate risks, Pakistan also sees opportunity. Acting as a mediator in a major international crisis could elevate its diplomatic standing.

Analysts suggest that while global influence may not be Pakistan's primary motivation, it remains an important consideration. Success in facilitating dialogue could significantly enhance its international profile, while failure may carry limited reputational damage if efforts are seen as sincere.

However, there is also the possibility of backlash. If mediation efforts collapse and war intensifies, Pakistan could be criticized as naive or manipulated by larger powers seeking time to regroup.

Strategic diplomacy and "unconventional" games

Pakistan's recent diplomatic approach reflects a broader strategy of multi-alignment maintaining relationships with competing global powers rather than choosing sides.

Observers note that Islamabad has been quick to leverage its rapport with Trump. Early gestures including public praise and cooperation on security matters helped build goodwill with the US administration.

At the same time, Pakistan's positioning as neither overtly pro-American nor aligned with Israel has helped maintain credibility with Iran.

This balancing act, described by some analysts as "unconventional diplomacy," distinguishes Pakistan from regional rivals and enhances its appeal as a neutral facilitator.

Despite ongoing diplomatic engagements including high-level visits to key partners such as China, the prospects for a breakthrough remain uncertain.

Deep mistrust between the US and Iran, combined with maximalist demands on both sides, presents a formidable barrier to any agreement.

For Pakistan, the challenge lies not only in facilitating dialogue but in navigating the complex geopolitical landscape without becoming entangled in the war itself.

Whether its efforts lead to meaningful de-escalation or not, Pakistan's role in this crisis underscores both the risks and ambitions shaping its foreign policy today.