Oil rises as investors return from holidays, eye China recovery

Oil prices nudged higher on Thursday, the first day of trade for 2025, as investors returning from holidays cautiously eyed a recovery in China's economy and fuel demand following a pledge by President Xi Jinping to promote growth.

Brent crude futures rose 17 cents, or 0.06%, to $74.82 a barrel by 0547 GMT after settling up 65 cents on Tuesday, the last trading day for 2024. US West Texas Intermediate crude futures gained 19 cents, or 0.26%, to $71.91 a barrel after closing 73 cents higher in the previous session.

China's Xi said on Tuesday in his New Year's address that the country would implement more proactive policies to promote growth in 2025.

China's factory activity grew in December, according to the private-sector Caixin/S&P Global survey on Thursday, but at a slower than expected pace amid concerns over the trade outlook and risks from tariffs proposed by US President-elect Donald Trump.

The data echoed an official survey released on Tuesday that showed China's manufacturing activity barely grew in December, though services and construction recovered. The data suggested policy stimulus is trickling into some sectors as China braces for new trade risks.

Traders are returning to their desks and probably weighing higher geopolitical risks and also the impact of Trump running the US economy red hot versus the impact of tariffs, IG market analyst Tony Sycamore said.

"Tomorrow's US ISM manufacturing release will be key to crude oil's next move," Sycamore added.

Sycamore said WTI's weekly chart is winding itself into a tighter range, which suggests a big move is coming.

"Rather than trying to predict in which way the break will occur, we would be inclined to wait for the break and then go with it," he added.

Investors are also awaiting weekly US oil stocks data from the Energy Information Administration that has been delayed until Thursday due to the New Year holiday.

US crude oil and distillate stockpiles are expected to have fallen last week while gasoline inventories likely rose, an extended Reuters poll showed on Tuesday.

US oil demand surged to the highest levels since the pandemic in October at 21.01 million barrels per day (bpd), up about 700,000 bpd from September, EIA data showed on Tuesday.

Crude output from the world's top producer rose to a record 13.46 million bpd in October, up 260,000 bpd from September, the report showed.

In 2025, oil prices are likely to be constrained near $70 a barrel, down for a third year after a 3% decline in 2024, as weak Chinese demand and rising global supplies offset efforts by OPEC+ to shore up the market, a Reuters monthly poll showed.

In Europe, Russia halted gas exports via Soviet-era pipelines running through Ukraine on New Year's Day. The widely expected stoppage will not impact prices for consumers in the European Union as some buyers have arranged alternative supply, while Hungary will keep receiving Russian gas via the TurkStream pipeline under the Black Sea.