Deutsche Bank warns of imminent recession in US | The Business Standard
Skip to main content
  • Latest
  • Economy
    • Banking
    • Stocks
    • Industry
    • Analysis
    • Bazaar
    • RMG
    • Corporates
    • Aviation
  • Videos
    • TBS Today
    • TBS Stories
    • TBS World
    • News of the day
    • TBS Programs
    • Podcast
    • Editor's Pick
  • World+Biz
  • Features
    • Panorama
    • The Big Picture
    • Pursuit
    • Habitat
    • Thoughts
    • Splash
    • Mode
    • Tech
    • Explorer
    • Brands
    • In Focus
    • Book Review
    • Earth
    • Food
    • Luxury
    • Wheels
  • Subscribe
    • Epaper
    • GOVT. Ad
  • More
    • Sports
    • TBS Graduates
    • Bangladesh
    • Supplement
    • Infograph
    • Archive
    • Gallery
    • Long Read
    • Interviews
    • Offbeat
    • Magazine
    • Climate Change
    • Health
    • Cartoons
  • বাংলা
The Business Standard

Saturday
July 12, 2025

Sign In
Subscribe
  • Latest
  • Economy
    • Banking
    • Stocks
    • Industry
    • Analysis
    • Bazaar
    • RMG
    • Corporates
    • Aviation
  • Videos
    • TBS Today
    • TBS Stories
    • TBS World
    • News of the day
    • TBS Programs
    • Podcast
    • Editor's Pick
  • World+Biz
  • Features
    • Panorama
    • The Big Picture
    • Pursuit
    • Habitat
    • Thoughts
    • Splash
    • Mode
    • Tech
    • Explorer
    • Brands
    • In Focus
    • Book Review
    • Earth
    • Food
    • Luxury
    • Wheels
  • Subscribe
    • Epaper
    • GOVT. Ad
  • More
    • Sports
    • TBS Graduates
    • Bangladesh
    • Supplement
    • Infograph
    • Archive
    • Gallery
    • Long Read
    • Interviews
    • Offbeat
    • Magazine
    • Climate Change
    • Health
    • Cartoons
  • বাংলা
SATURDAY, JULY 12, 2025
Deutsche Bank warns of imminent recession in US

World+Biz

TBS Report
27 April, 2022, 09:00 am
Last modified: 27 April, 2022, 09:08 am

Related News

  • 35% tariff: Bangladesh, US 'reach general consensus on some issues' on second day of talks; final round today
  • US remains Bangladesh’s top export destination
  • Trump's tariffs: What's in effect and what could be in store?
  • Tariffs drive US clothing imports from China to 22-year low in May
  • US wants easier access for military equipment, LNG, wheat, cotton imports: Commerce secretary

Deutsche Bank warns of imminent recession in US

TBS Report
27 April, 2022, 09:00 am
Last modified: 27 April, 2022, 09:08 am
Photo: Collected
Photo: Collected

Deutsche Bank has recently predicted a 'mild' US recession and became the first major bank to detect it.

The bank warns of a decline caused by the Federal Reserve's attempt to bring down high inflation.

Deutsche Bank economists wrote in a report to clients on Tuesday, "We will get a major recession."

The Business Standard Google News Keep updated, follow The Business Standard's Google news channel

The problem, according to the bank, is that while inflation may be peaking, it will take a "long time" before it gets back down to the Fed's goal of 2%, reports CNN.

That suggests the central bank will raise interest rates so aggressively that it hurts the economy.

"We regard it...as highly likely that the Fed will have to step on the brakes even more firmly, and a deep recession will be needed to bring inflation to heel," Deutsche Bank economists wrote in its report with the ominous title, "Why the coming recession will be worse than expected."

Behind the curve

Consumer prices spiked by 8.5% in March, the fastest pace in 40 years. The jobs market remains on fire, with Moody's Analytics projecting that the unemployment rate will soon fall to the lowest level since the early 1950s.

To make its case, Deutsche Bank created an index that tracks the distance between inflation and unemployment over the past 60 years and the Fed's stated goals for those metrics. That research, according to the bank, finds that the Fed today is "much further behind the curve" than it has been since the early 1980s, a period when extremely high inflation forced the central bank to raise interest rates to record highs, crushing the economy.

History shows the Fed has "never been able to correct" even smaller overshoots of inflation and employment "without pushing the economy into a significant recession," Deutsche Bank said.

Given that the job market has "over-tightened" by as much as two percentage points of unemployment, the bank said, "Something stronger than a mild recession will be needed to do the job."

The good news is that Deutsche Bank sees the economy rebounding by mid-2024 as the Fed reverses course in its inflation fight.

Goldman Sachs: Recession is not inevitable

Of course, no one knows precisely how this will play out. Although Deutsche Bank is pessimistic -- it's the most bearish among major banks on Wall Street -- others contend this gloom-and-doom is overdone.

Goldman Sachs concedes it will be "very challenging" to bring down high inflation and wage growth, but stresses that a recession is "not inevitable."

"We do not need a recession but probably do need growth to slow to a somewhat below-potential pace, a path that raises recession risk," Goldman Sachs economists wrote in a report Friday evening.

UBS is similarly hopeful that the economic expansion will continue despite the Fed's shift to inflation-fighting mode.

"Inflation should ease from current levels, and we do not expect a recession from rising interest rates," Mark Haefele, chief investment officer at UBS Global Wealth Management, wrote in a report on Monday.

War and Covid lockdowns pressure inflation

Deutsche Bank said the most important factor behind its more negative view is the likelihood that inflation will remain "persistently elevated for longer than generally anticipated."

The bank said several developments will contribute to higher-than-feared inflation, including: the reversal of globalization, climate change, further supply-chain disruptions caused by the war in Ukraine and Covid lockdowns in China and coming increases to inflation expectations that will support actual inflation.

"The scourge of inflation has returned and is here to stay," Deutsche Bank said.

If inflation does stay elevated, the Fed will be forced to consider more dramatic interest rate hikes. The Fed raised interest rates by a quarter-percentage point in March and Chairman Jerome Powell conceded last week that a half-point hike is "on the table" at next week's meeting.

"It is sorely tempting to take a go-slow approach hoping that the US economy can be landed softly on a sustainable path. This will not happen," Deutsche Bank said. "Our view is that the only way to minimize the economic, financial and societal damage of prolonged inflation is to err on the side of doing too much."

Top News

US / Recession / Deutsche Bank

Comments

While most comments will be posted if they are on-topic and not abusive, moderation decisions are subjective. Published comments are readers’ own views and The Business Standard does not endorse any of the readers’ comments.

Top Stories

  • Infograph: TBS
    Costly delays and doubts: Dhaka's BRT project spirals further with 55% cost jump
  • Bangladesh and US hold tariff talks on 11 July 2025. Photo: CA Press Wing
    Dhaka, Washington to continue inter-ministerial dialogue as tariff talks end without full consensus
  • Caught between a rock and a hard place. Cartoon: TBS
    Caught between a rock and a hard place?

MOST VIEWED

  • In terms of stream of education, girls maintained their excellence as well. Photo: TBS
    SSC 2025: Girls dominate boys by over 5%
  • Photo: Mohammad Minhaj Uddin/TBS
    SSC, equivalent results: Pass rate drops to 68.45%, GPA-5 also declines
  • The overall pass rate across all boards this year, 68.45%, is significantly lower than last year's. Photo: Focus Bangla
    SSC 2025: Rajshahi board records highest pass rate, Barishal lowest
  • How S Alam’s Global Islami Bank cooked Tk2,259cr loss into Tk128cr profit
    How S Alam’s Global Islami Bank cooked Tk2,259cr loss into Tk128cr profit
  • Representational image. Photo: TBS
    SSC 2025: 73.63% pass rate among technical students, 68.09% at Madrasahs
  • Economist Abul Barkat; Photo: Courtesy
    Economist Abul Barkat arrested in graft case

Related News

  • 35% tariff: Bangladesh, US 'reach general consensus on some issues' on second day of talks; final round today
  • US remains Bangladesh’s top export destination
  • Trump's tariffs: What's in effect and what could be in store?
  • Tariffs drive US clothing imports from China to 22-year low in May
  • US wants easier access for military equipment, LNG, wheat, cotton imports: Commerce secretary

Features

After India's visa restriction, China's Kunming is drawing Bangladeshi patients

After India's visa restriction, China's Kunming is drawing Bangladeshi patients

15h | Panorama
Photo: Collected/BBC

What Hitler’s tariff policy misfire can teach the modern world

1d | The Big Picture
Illustration: TBS

Behind closed doors: Why women in Bangladesh stay in abusive marriages

1d | Panorama
Purbachl’s 144-acre Sal forest is an essential part of the area’s biodiversity. Within it, 128 species of plants and 74 species of animals — many of them endangered — have been identified. Photo: Syed Zakir Hossain/TBS

A forest saved: Inside the restoration of Purbachal's last Sal grove

1d | Panorama

More Videos from TBS

Renowned economist Abul Barkat imprisoned

Renowned economist Abul Barkat imprisoned

14h | TBS Today
All of Iran's uranium still intact, Israel claims

All of Iran's uranium still intact, Israel claims

13h | TBS World
Trump-Netanyahu in new strategy on Gaza issue

Trump-Netanyahu in new strategy on Gaza issue

15h | TBS World
Shocking science: why birds stay safe on electricity lines

Shocking science: why birds stay safe on electricity lines

16h | TBS Stories
EMAIL US
contact@tbsnews.net
FOLLOW US
WHATSAPP
+880 1847416158
The Business Standard
  • About Us
  • Contact us
  • Sitemap
  • Advertisement
  • Privacy Policy
  • Comment Policy
Copyright © 2025
The Business Standard All rights reserved
Technical Partner: RSI Lab

Contact Us

The Business Standard

Main Office -4/A, Eskaton Garden, Dhaka- 1000

Phone: +8801847 416158 - 59

Send Opinion articles to - oped.tbs@gmail.com

For advertisement- sales@tbsnews.net