Breakingviews: Marine Le Pen election ban worsens French chaos
The decision of a French court to ban far-right leader Marine Le Pen from running in the 2027 presidential election will deepen political chaos in a country that already contends with a hung parliament and an unpopular president. And it will make it more difficult for the weak minority government led by Prime Minister François Bayrou to make the crucial decisions needed to control a ballooning public debt.
The leader of right-wing party Rassemblement National (RN) was handed on Monday a four-year prison sentence in her and her party's trial for embezzlement, along with an interdiction to run for public office for five years. The court found that when she was a member of the European Parliament, Le Pen and others set up a system of fake job contracts that allowed them to siphon off more than 4 million euros of European Parliament money to the RN. Le Pen is appealing the verdict.
The legal elimination from the next presidential campaign of the candidate currently seen as the favourite risks poisoning the French political debate for the next two years. It will reinforce Le Pen and her RN supporters' argument that they have long been the victims of a "system" of mainstream parties' intent on eliminating them from the political game. They will be quick to point out that Bayrou himself once faced similar allegations, of which he was cleared last year for lack of evidence. Le Pen's political fate now depends on the celerity of the French judiciary, never its main trait. But the few months it will take for an appeal court to rule will increase uncertainty. In the meantime she has every incentive to keep the anger alive.
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Le Pen's capacity to bring down Bayrou's government looks limited: the RN only commands 142 seats out of 577 in France's parliament. But a more hostile right wing can still obstruct laws and make Bayrou even more dependent on the left-wing Socialist Party. That will make it harder for France to cut its debt, set to reach 120% of GDP by the year-end, and cobble together the extra 40 billion euros a year it needs to boost its military. And the political mess will likely keep bond yields elevated, hurting the economy and government finances. Ten-year bonds, at 3.4%, are already back at 2023 highs due to the massive German stimulus plan.
Le Pen and her party's sense of outrage may not only pollute French politics in the next two years. If she is prevented from running in 2027, and her party's candidate loses, the next French president's mandate will be tarred by permanent doubts about his or her political legitimacy. The poisonous effect of Monday's decision may be felt for years to come.
Context news
French right-wing leader Marine Le Pen was convicted of embezzlement by a French court on March 31 and banned immediately for five years from running for public office. The sentence will rule her out of the 2027 presidential race unless she successfully gets the decision overturned on appeal beforehand.
The judge also gave Le Pen a four-year prison sentence – two years of which are suspended and two will be served under home detention.
"Today it is not only Marine Le Pen who was unjustly condemned: it was French democracy that was killed," Le Pen's right-hand man and Rassemblement National President Jordan Bardella said.
