Attack on Iran jolts nuclear talks – what comes next for the region?

Just hours before forces from the United States and Israel launched attacks on Iran, Badr Albusaidi, the foreign minister of Oman, offered an upbeat assessment of talks between US and Iranian officials aimed at ending the nuclear impasse.

Albusaidi, who had been mediating between the two delegations, said all outstanding issues could be resolved "amicably and comprehensively" within three months. He described the recent discussions in Geneva as marking "a very important breakthrough that has never been achieved any time before" between the sides, TRT World reported.

However, only hours after his remarks, US and Israeli forces struck multiple targets in Iran, echoing developments following earlier talks last June between Tehran and Washington, which were likewise followed by joint military action.

In a video message released today (28 February), Donald Trump signalled a major operation, saying the United States military was conducting "a massive and ongoing operation" to prevent what he described as a radical dictatorship from threatening American national security.

"We are going to destroy their missiles and raze their missile industry to the ground," he said, alleging Tehran was attempting to rebuild its nuclear programme despite last June's strikes, which reportedly inflicted severe damage on Iranian nuclear facilities.

Analysts say Trump's language indicates Washington may be targeting Iran's missile stockpiles.

Uncertainty over Iran's response

Ali Akbar Dareini, a Tehran-based political analyst, reported hearing several explosions, apparently from air-launched missiles fired from Iraqi airspace.

Mohammed Eslami, a political scientist at the European University Institute, suggested the strikes involved American cruise missiles but cautioned that the situation remained unclear.

Iran's response remains uncertain. Last year, Tehran retaliated against US–Israeli strikes by targeting an American military base in Qatar.

"Retaliation will depend on the scale of the blow they received, but it is too early to say anything," Eslami told TRT World, adding that Iran might even move to "select new leadership if necessary".

Tasnim, a semi-official news agency linked to Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, said Iran was preparing "revenge and a crushing response to the Zionist regime", referring to Israel.

State-affiliated Iranian media also reported that at least seven missiles struck the residence of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in Tehran's Pasteur district. Eslami suggested the attacks may have killed senior officials of both the Revolutionary Guard and the regular army.

He warned that Iran could begin launching missile barrages within hours or even minutes.

Asked whether Iran had anticipated the attack during the Geneva negotiations, Eslami said that while diplomats may have hoped for a negotiated settlement, the armed forces were likely prepared.

A Tehran-based journalist, speaking anonymously, predicted a prolonged conflict and said many Iranians were anxious. She reported heavy traffic across the capital and said some residents had begun chanting anti-government slogans in the streets.

Nevertheless, she said the Islamic Republic would endure. "In what condition, I cannot say, but they will not back down. Even if they have to set the whole region on fire, they will do that," she said.

Eslami described anti-government demonstrators as "a loud minority", adding that the country's silent majority would rally behind the state. He said it would be irrational for opposition groups to mobilise publicly at present, warning that authorities would swiftly suppress any protests.