3 charts signaling trouble for Trump amid the Iran war

Donald Trump's popularity among Americans has been steadily declining since he returned to the White House last January.

While some decline is typical for second-term US presidents, his early drop also reflects continued public frustration over high prices and the cost of living—issues that have helped Democrats secure victories in a growing number of elections over the past year.

Data from The Downballot shows Democrats performed, on average, 13% better in contested special elections in 2025 than they did in the same districts during the 2024 presidential election.

The war in Iran has further intensified these economic concerns.

Polling firm Ipsos reported that 43% of Americans approved of Trump's handling of the economy at the start of his second term.

By 23 June 2025, that figure had fallen to 35% and remained around that level for the rest of the year.

Three weeks into the Iran war, gas prices rose to nearly $4 per gallon, while Trump's economic approval rating dropped to 29%.

This was lower than any rating recorded by Joe Biden during his presidency, despite the post-Covid inflation spike.

Economic anxiety had contributed to the Democrats' defeat in 2024 and to Republicans gaining control of the presidency and both chambers of Congress.

Now, it appears to be weighing on Trump's overall approval.

At the start of his second term, according to an average compiled by political analyst Nate Silver, Trump had 52% approval.

Although this was not a strong political "honeymoon," it still reflected majority support following a contentious election, allowing him to claim a mandate and advance policies on immigration, tariffs, government cuts and tax reform.

By 28 February, at the start of the Iran war, his approval had dropped to 42%. This week, it declined further to 40%.

This places an incumbent president in a risky position just seven months before midterm congressional elections. The longer the Iran war continues—and the more it disrupts the global economy and drives up consumer prices—the greater the potential risk.

At this week's Conservative Political Action Conference near Dallas, Texas, discussions frequently focused on the stakes of the November elections.

Michael Whatley, a North Carolina Senate candidate and former Republican National Committee chairman, said, "We cannot let the left win this election cycle and take away this agenda that we are fighting for every single day."

He warned that a Democratic return to power would bring "impeachment, hoaxes, investigations and an agenda that is off the rails."

Despite the war, Trump's approval rating has not dropped more sharply, possibly because his political base has continued to support him even amid economic concerns. Data from the Pew Research Center reflects this trend, which was also evident at CPAC in Texas.

Supporters like Paul Heere argued that higher petrol prices are a necessary cost, saying it is better to pay more now than face greater consequences later, particularly to prevent another country in the region from acquiring nuclear weapons.

A recent Quinnipiac University Poll found that 86% of Republicans support US military action in Iran and 80% approve of Trump's handling of it. Among all registered voters, support falls to 39% and 34%, respectively.

Democrats have largely opposed Trump's actions since his return to office. However, independent voters now also appear to be turning against him.

Winning independent voters was key to Trump's 2024 victory. Unless current political trends shift, their growing opposition could contribute to potential losses for his party in November.