Will NCP be able to convert sympathy into trust?
As distrust in Bangladesh’s old political parties deepens, the National Citizen Party enjoys sympathy for its ideals. But can it turn admiration into lasting trust—or will it fall into the same cycle of disappointment?
As Bangladesh nears its general election slated to be held in February next year, political loyalty has given way to hesitation. The BIGD Pulse Survey (July 2025) reveals that 48.5% of voters remain undecided, a significant increase from 38% in October 2024. This uncertainty is particularly relevant in a country with a long history of corruption, broken promises, and ineffective leadership.
Under such circumstances, the public has a simple yet profound question—who can we trust to determine the future of Bangladesh?
The indecisiveness of almost half of the population reflected in the Pulse Survey matches the qualitative findings in a separate ongoing BIGD research, titled "Youth Politics in Bangladesh." In this study, we are trying to understand the process of political formation among post-uprising political parties through fieldwork in the Dhaka, Khulna, and Rangpur divisions. We found that different occupational groups, including students, teachers, and local people, have all expressed a similar sentiment. While everybody wants change, they are hesitant to entrust the responsibility to a single political party.
Disillusionment with old political parties, notably Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and Jamaat-e-Islami (JI), is evident. According to the Pulse Survey, support for BNP—the former leading opponent of the previous authoritarian regime—has decreased from 16.3% in October 2024 to 12% in July 2025. In our ongoing BIGD qualitative research fieldwork, even local leaders in Khulna and Satkhira acknowledged that the party struggles to connect with ordinary citizens. They noted that committee positions are often influenced by money, while corruption and bribery have become prevalent, sidelining citizens' genuine concerns.
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Jamaat-e-Islami, meanwhile, has seen a decline in popularity, from 11.3% in October 2024 to 10.4% in July 2025. In our youth politics research, a university student expressed concern that JI's rise would impose stricter religious rules. This perception is consistent with the findings of the Pulse Survey, which show a stark decline in support for Islamic parties, including JI, among young female voters.
Nevertheless, our qualitative fieldwork also revealed that many young people still support the Islamic parties as they think that such strictness is necessary in a Muslim majority nation.
Clearly, leaders of both parties aren't listening to what the people truly want. Instead, one is concerned with claiming credit for the July Uprising, while the other fails to demonstrate how it would move beyond its religion centric politics to address the everyday struggles of the people, raising further doubts about the capacity and intention of either party to bring about meaningful changes.
While many respondents expressing indecisiveness may have done so due to a lack of trust in the interviewer or embarrassment, the data also reflects a more profound distrust in Bangladesh's political culture. In our qualitative study, many expressed their frustration with broken promises, corruption, and opaque governance. This sentiment is particularly strong among young voters.
Looking at the Pulse Survey data, we find that 51% of respondents would prefer reforms before the elections, primarily to reduce corruption and enhance the transparency of the voting process. Taken together, our studies suggest that voter indecisiveness is not a result of apathy. Instead, they want change and don't trust the political parties to implement those changes.
This sentiment is particularly strong among young voters. As per findings of the BIGD Pulse Survey, 51% of respondents would prefer reforms before the elections, primarily to reduce corruption and enhance transparency of the voting process.
The deep distrust in Bangladesh's political system also presents significant challenges for new parties like the National Citizen Party (NCP). Yet, while support for major parties declined, support for NCP grew, albeit marginally, from 2% in October 2024 to 2.8% in July 2025. This support was evident in the "Desh Gorte July Podo Jatra" rally by NCP in Khulna, demonstrating a genuine interest in change.
Nevertheless, the crisis of trust in political parties remains visible. After all, the explicit support for NCP remains too low to have any meaningful impact on Bangladeshi politics.
NCP must transform the widespread admiration it enjoys into long-term support by demonstrating its capacity to provide effective governance that resonates with citizens' expectations and withstands scrutiny.
In Tala upazila under Satkhira district, one school teacher appreciated the party spirit of NCP but doubted their ability to govern. He pointed out that being a leader of a movement is an entirely different thing from ruling a country. In the same manner, youth activists expressed their support for NCP but warned that this would only continue as long as the party did not adopt the same corrupt practices that were prevalent in earlier regimes.
The common denominator in these observations is clear: the party is appreciated for its ideals, but it faces cautious optimism as citizens wait to see whether it will be transparent, accountable, and capable of exercising good governance.
Our ongoing qualitative research on youth politics and the BIGD pulse survey show a clear split in public perception about NCP. While evaluating NCP as the next governing power, there was a near-even split, with 44% supporting and 46% opposing. When asked to project NCP's longevity, there was again a balance of roughly 40% who projected longevity and 40% who projected failure. Fresh ideas, July uprising leadership, hope for change, courage, and honesty were the five top factors that supporters expect from youth political actors.
Meanwhile, critics highlight inexperience, weak leadership, voter distrust, and organisational flaws as the pitfalls, which the young leaders must address in the coming days. Clearly, the new party must balance two heavyweights on each scale: big aspirations for change on one, and governance challenges on the other.
The NCP must invest energy in grassroots engagement and empowering local committees and leaders, develop a strict anti-corruption framework, and practice transparent governance to gain trust and long-term support. Moreover, implementing leadership training programmes for local leaders and party workers can bridge their institutional experience gap.
NCP's future depends on its ability to convert sympathy into public trust through credible governance, institutional maturity, and a clean image. The next election will be a litmus test—if NCP delivers on accountability, inclusivity, and performance, it could establish itself as a long-term political force. If not, it risks fading into the familiar cycle of disappointment.
Meherab Hossain is a Field Research Assistant, and Raihan Ahamed is a Program Coordinator at the BRAC Institute of Governance and Development (BIGD), BRAC University.
Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the opinions and views of The Business Standard.
