The role of disinformation in modern hybrid warfare 

The nature of warfare in international relations has undergone a significant transformation.

Traditional open battlefield confrontations are increasingly replaced by multifaceted hybrid tactics that combine military, political, economic, informational, and cyber strategies. Among these, disinformation has emerged as a powerful instrument that distorts reality to destabilise societies, influence foreign populations, and weaken governments without resorting to conventional combat. Understanding this paradigm shift is essential for governments, security agencies, and citizens worldwide.

Understanding Hybrid Warfare

Hybrid warfare is characterised by the fusion of conventional military actions with unconventional tools such as cyber operations, economic pressure, propaganda, and proxy forces, all orchestrated to achieve strategic aims without provoking full-scale conflict (NATO, 2015). This form of conflict thrives on ambiguity and exploits legal and political gray zones, targeting vulnerabilities inherent in open and democratic societies. A prominent example is Russia's 2014 annexation of Crimea, where unmarked troops, cyber disruptions, and a widespread misinformation campaign created confusion, delaying an effective international response (RAND, 2017).

Unlike traditional wars, hybrid warfare is conducted beneath the threshold of direct armed conflict, complicating identification of aggressors and delaying countermeasures. This ambiguity allows aggressors to operate with plausible deniability and fractures the unity of targeted states.

Disinformation as a Core Weapon

Disinformation differs from accidental misinformation by being deliberately crafted falsehoods intended to influence public opinion or policy decisions. It undermines trust in institutions, foments social divisions, and obstructs governance. The 2016 US presidential election is a key example, where Russian-linked actors fabricated social media personas, spread divisive narratives, and targeted specific voter groups with ads designed to influence electoral outcomes (US Senate Intelligence Committee, 2019).

Disinformation's scope is broad and includes efforts to delegitimise opposition, discredit protests, and sabotage public health responses. During the Covid-19 crisis, conspiracy theories and false claims about vaccines proliferated globally, posing a serious challenge to health authorities (WHO, 2021).

Global Instances of Hybrid Warfare

Russia is often cited as a pioneer in modern hybrid warfare, but other countries have adopted similar tactics to extend their geopolitical influence. China employs a blend of economic investments, media control, and cyber espionage to assert its presence in Southeast Asia, using non-military means to secure strategic advantages (The Diplomat, 2023). Iran combines cyberattacks with proxy militia activities and propaganda to counter regional rivals in the Gulf (Council on Foreign Relations, 2022).

Western nations also face hybrid threats. The United States and the United Kingdom have encountered cyber espionage, foreign propaganda campaigns, and interference in their political processes. MI5 reported continued Russian attempts to manipulate UK politics through social media and by supporting extremist groups (BBC, 2023).

Hybrid Warfare in the South Asian Context

South Asia's intricate geopolitics, characterised by longstanding rivalries and fragile democratic institutions, creates a conducive environment for hybrid tactics. India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh have experienced cyberattacks, misinformation campaigns, and political subversion attempts.

India is actively enhancing its cyber defences and counter-propaganda measures to offset Chinese and Pakistani influence efforts (Indian Ministry of Defence, 2024). Bangladesh, with its rapidly growing internet penetration, struggles to balance digital regulation with the protection of free speech. The 2018 Digital Security Act was introduced to combat online falsehoods, though critics warn it could be misused to stifle dissent (Human Rights Watch, 2021).

Legal Challenges and Sovereignty Concerns

The elusive nature of hybrid warfare poses significant challenges to existing international legal frameworks. While the UN Charter prohibits forceful aggression, hybrid actions often avoid triggering this threshold, creating legal ambiguities. Cyber operations and disinformation campaigns are especially difficult to attribute, complicating efforts for accountability.

Initiatives such as the Tallinn Manual 2.0 have sought to interpret how international law applies to cyber conflicts, but enforcement remains weak without universal agreement (Schmitt, 2017). States face the difficult task of defending themselves against hybrid threats while respecting civil liberties and international norms.

Technology's Role and the Influence of Media Platforms

Advancements in technology have dramatically increased the effectiveness and reach of disinformation. Social media algorithms favor content that generates high engagement, frequently amplifying sensational or misleading information over accurate reporting. Innovations like deepfake videos and automated bot networks facilitate the rapid spread of fabricated narratives.

While platforms like Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube have taken steps to identify and remove false content, the scale and sophistication of malign actors often outpace these efforts. The ongoing debate revolves around how to curb harmful content without infringing on freedom of expression (The Guardian, 2022).

Strategic Responses to Hybrid Threats

Effectively countering hybrid warfare requires a multi-layered strategy:

1. Promoting Digital Literacy: Educating populations to critically evaluate information sources reduces vulnerability to falsehoods. National awareness campaigns and school programs are vital.
2. Improving Cybersecurity: Investing in robust cyber defences, fostering intelligence sharing, and enhancing international cooperation are essential to counter cyber threats.
3. Supporting Independent Journalism: A pluralistic media landscape, combined with fact-checking organisations, can help combat disinformation.
4. Developing Legal Frameworks: Updating international law to define and regulate hybrid warfare and establishing mechanisms for enforcement are critical steps.
5. Encouraging Regional Collaboration: In geopolitically sensitive areas like South Asia, coordinated intelligence sharing and joint crisis management improve resilience.
6. Partnering with Tech Companies: Governments must work closely with social media and tech firms to enhance transparency, content moderation, and user education.

Hybrid warfare and the strategic use of disinformation represent a fundamental shift in how international conflicts are waged. By exploiting uncertainty, leveraging technology, and manipulating information, state and non-state actors challenge sovereignty and destabilise societies without overt military confrontations. Combating this evolving threat demands a comprehensive approach involving technological innovation, legal reform, societal resilience, and international cooperation. The future security architecture will depend on the global community's ability to understand and counter these new domains of conflict effectively.

The author is a faculty member in the Department of International Relations at Jahangirnagar University. He can be reached at fazlul@juniv.edu