Forecast-based rice farming can transform Bangladesh’s agriculture
Reliable weather forecasts, delivered on time, can turn uncertainty into opportunity. They can make agriculture more productive, resilient and profitable
Every season, Bangladesh's farmers live at the mercy of the weather. A sudden flash flood, often triggered by upstream rainfall, can submerge nearly mature Boro rice within hours. An untimely drought can dry entire fields.
Year after year, farmers cultivate in uncertainty, relying on nature's unpredictability. But imagine if a farmer knew in advance that heavy rain or a flash flood was coming next week. Or that the monsoon would be delayed. Or that a storm would strike within 48 hours.
Farmers could take precautions. They could save crops, protect livestock and secure fish in ponds. It is time to use modern science to reduce climate-related losses. Reliable weather forecasts, delivered on time, can turn uncertainty into opportunity. They can make agriculture more productive, resilient and profitable.
Keep updated, follow The Business Standard's Google news channel
Agriculture remains the backbone of Bangladesh's economy. It contributes about 13.47% to GDP. The crop subsector adds another 6.77%. Together, they account for more than one-fifth of national output. Rice dominates this system, supplying nearly 80% of the country's food.
Despite this, most farmers still rely on traditional methods and experience. In a time of increasing climate variability, these methods are no longer sufficient.
Climate change is no longer a distant threat. It is already happening and becoming more severe. Globally, 2024 was the warmest year on record, with temperatures about 1.47°C above pre-industrial levels.
Scientists warn that the world could cross the critical 1.5°C threshold by 2030. For Bangladesh, the situation is more alarming. In 2024, the country experienced a record 35-day heatwave, the longest in both duration and coverage.
Countries like India have already shown success. Millions of farmers receive advisories through SMS, voice calls, radio and television. Studies show that farmers who follow these advisories earn 10–25% higher income.
Over the past two decades, Bangladesh has faced 185 extreme climate events. This clearly indicates a rapid rise in climate risks.
These impacts are visible in agriculture. In 2007, Cyclone Sidr damaged Aman crops and caused saline intrusion. In 2017, flash floods in haor areas submerged 1.2 lakh hectares of Boro rice just before harvest. In 2018, a cold wave damaged Boro seedlings in northern Bangladesh.
In Rajshahi, the 2020 drought delayed sowing and reduced yields by around 30%. These events show how floods, cyclones, droughts and cold waves threaten agricultural production.
The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) estimates that 25–30% of global agricultural production is lost annually due to weather-related disasters. In South Asia, this leads to rising debt, higher food prices and deeper rural poverty.
In this context, timely weather forecasts and early warning systems are essential. Weather-based advisory services can support farmers in making better decisions.
Countries like India have already shown success. Millions of farmers receive advisories through SMS, voice calls, radio and television. Studies show that farmers who follow these advisories earn 10–25% higher income.
In Bangladesh, the Agrometeorology, Crop Modeling and Climate Change Research Laboratory (Agromet Lab) at BRRI has been working on these technologies since 2016–17.
The findings were published in 2023 in the Journal of the Science of Food and Agriculture. The research shows that forecast-based advisory services reduce risks and improve income.
Farmers using these services achieved around 7% higher yields and 13% lower production costs. Labour requirements dropped by 120 hours per hectare. Fertiliser use fell by 16%, irrigation by 23%, herbicides by 52%, insecticides by 40% and fungicides by 26%.
This reduction lowers costs and improves soil and water health.
The economic benefits are significant. Farmers reported a 31% increase in net income per bigha. On average, they earned an additional $229 per hectare, equivalent to nearly Tk28,000, without new infrastructure investment.
The benefit-cost ratio increased from 1.75 to 2.17. Better information led to better decisions, and better decisions increased income.
This system is already being piloted in 24 districts under six climate-sensitive hotspots identified in the Bangladesh Delta Plan 2100.
When extreme weather is forecast, farmers receive early warnings. This allows them to adjust irrigation, fertiliser use and pest control.
With strong institutional support, this system can be scaled nationwide. The Bangladesh Meteorological Department, Water Development Board, BRRI, BARI, agricultural universities and the Department of Agricultural Extension all have key roles.
However, several challenges remain. These include lack of hyper-local forecasts, delays in information, limited user-friendly formats, trust gaps and weak coordination.
To address these, Bangladesh needs targeted actions. Automated weather stations at the union or upazila level can generate localised data.
Forecasts should be delivered in simple language through voice calls and community media. Digital platforms such as mobile apps and social media can expand reach.
Extension officers need specialised training. Media involvement and academic research should also be strengthened.
Policy alignment with the Bangladesh Delta Plan 2100, National Adaptation Plan 2023 and National Agricultural Policy 2018 can support nationwide expansion.
Weather forecasting must be treated as core infrastructure. It should be an essential part of agricultural planning.
Reliable forecasts are no longer a luxury. They are essential for food security.
Policymakers should integrate forecast-based advisory services into national strategies. Research institutions and technology partners must work together to improve accuracy and accessibility.
If every farmer can access reliable forecasts, weather risks can be managed. Forecasts are not just information about the sky. They are a lifeline for food, livelihoods and the future.
Niaz Md Farhat Rahman is a Principal Scientific Officer (Agricultural Statistician) and Coordinator of the Agromet Lab at Bangladesh Rice Research Institute (BRRI), Gazipur, Bangladesh.
Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions and views of The Business Standard.
