Bangladesh's energy crisis shows why it needs a National Security Council

The Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) government has completed its first 100 days in office after navigating a severe energy crisis triggered by the Iran-Israel conflict. Shortly after taking office, it attempted to shield consumers through fuel subsidies estimated at Tk1.6 billion a day. However, mounting pressure from global energy markets eventually forced the government to increase fuel prices on 18 April.

While the immediate crisis has eased, the episode exposed longstanding weaknesses in Bangladesh's energy security architecture. Limited fuel storage capacity, delayed infrastructure projects and fragmented policy coordination left the country vulnerable to external shocks.

As geopolitical instability increasingly shapes energy markets and supply chains, Bangladesh requires stronger institutional mechanisms for strategic planning and crisis management. Establishing a National Security Council (NSC) could be a crucial step towards building that resilience.

Lessons from the energy crisis

The recent fuel crisis highlighted structural weaknesses that have accumulated over decades. Bangladesh's fuel storage capacity remains significantly below international standards. While many countries maintain strategic reserves capable of sustaining domestic demand for around 90 days, Bangladesh's storage capacity is estimated to cover only about 40 days.

The problem is not merely one of storage capacity but also of coordination and preparedness. Reports during the crisis suggested that incoming fuel shipments were constrained by limited storage facilities, while key infrastructure projects, including the Matarbari Single Point Mooring project, were yet to become fully operational.

Although the government eventually stabilised supplies across the country, the crisis should not be viewed as a success story. Rather, it should serve as a warning about the vulnerabilities that could become even more severe during future geopolitical disruptions.

Given the growing uncertainty in global politics, Bangladesh is likely to face similar challenges again. The question is not whether another crisis will emerge, but whether the country will be better prepared when it does.

Why Bangladesh needs an NSC

Since states are fundamentally territorial entities, they shape their security strategies based on an understanding, mainly concerning geographical factors, of their complex security environment.

However, like any other living organism, states also actively influence their surroundings. Smaller states like Bangladesh often overly emphasize geographical factors in their security conceptualization, missing the broader strategic dimensions, mostly through a lack of institutional imagination than lack of capabilities.

The remedy lies in a better understanding of the enduring and the incipient challenges in the security environment while engaging in policy adaptation through strategic and innovative policy undertaking.

So how would having a National Security Council (NSC) be helpful in future energy crises? The emerging security environment, at the global level, confronting the BNP led government will be one that is dictated by 'self-help' and would conform to the classic realist dictum of 'the strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must'. In such an environment, deterrence through strength and survival through resilience must become key policy choices.

Bangladesh's security challenges increasingly extend beyond traditional military concerns. Energy security, supply-chain disruptions, cyber threats, climate-related emergencies and geopolitical competition all require coordinated responses across multiple government agencies.

An NSC could provide the institutional framework needed to address these interconnected challenges.

First, an NSC could strengthen crisis coordination. As a central coordinating body, it could facilitate cooperation among ministries, intelligence agencies, law enforcement bodies and regulatory authorities. During an energy crisis, such coordination would help identify supply bottlenecks, prevent hoarding and ensure more efficient distribution of critical resources.

The recent fuel shortage demonstrated how quickly market anxiety can translate into panic buying. A more coordinated response mechanism could have mitigated these disruptions and reduced pressure on consumers.

Second, NSC's responsibility would have been the identification of emerging threats across all domains of security, including energy. This in turn would have guided longer-term strategies involving the development of deeper strategic reserves and the expansion of refinery capacity.

With NSC's institutional foresight, recent crisis would have had a milder impact on Bangladesh as seen in the case of China where the recognition of such vulnerabilities led to the development of deeper reserves and better crisis resilience. Longer-term strategies may not appear critical now but given the increased volatility associated with the emergent geopolitical landscape, they remain vital in ensuring energy security.

Third, an NSC could strengthen Bangladesh's ability to respond rapidly to international crises. Around the world, national security institutions often complement traditional diplomatic channels by enabling faster coordination during emergencies. Recent conflicts in the Middle East demonstrated the importance of swift communication and coordinated decision-making among political, diplomatic and security institutions.

For Bangladesh, such institutional capacity could prove valuable in securing emergency fuel supplies, coordinating international partnerships and managing the domestic consequences of global disruptions.

Building an effective NSC

As the governing party, BNP will undoubtedly have access to expert advice regarding the design and structure of an NSC. However, several principles should guide the process.

Most importantly, the council must reinforce democratic accountability and civilian oversight. In many democracies, NSCs serve as the highest-level coordinating bodies for national security policy while remaining firmly under civilian authority. Their purpose is not to replace existing institutions but to improve coordination among them.

Retired military officials could play an important role during the initial stages of establishing an NSC, particularly in building trust among different security agencies. At the same time, the inclusion of experienced civilian policymakers and subject-matter experts would be essential to ensure diversity of perspectives and avoid institutional groupthink.

The government could also consider establishing an advisory mechanism that allows academics, technical specialists and other experts to contribute to national security discussions when necessary. Such arrangements would help broaden policy expertise while preserving confidentiality where required.

Over time, the development of civilian expertise in national security matters would strengthen both governance and civil-military relations. National security would become a broader public policy issue rather than a narrowly defined institutional concern.

A timely opportunity

The recent energy crisis should not be viewed simply as a temporary disruption. It was a reminder that Bangladesh remains vulnerable to events occurring far beyond its borders.

As geopolitical tensions, climate-related shocks and supply-chain disruptions become more frequent, the country will need stronger institutions capable of anticipating risks and coordinating national responses. Establishing a National Security Council with a clear statutory mandate would not eliminate future crises, but it could help Bangladesh manage them more effectively.

For Prime Minister Tarique Rahman, the first 100 days in office have already demonstrated the costs of institutional unpreparedness. The challenge now is to ensure that the lessons of this crisis are translated into lasting reforms before the next one arrives.

Md Tanvir Habib is an Assistant Professor at the Department of International Relations, University of Dhaka. 

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions and views of The Business Standard.