Less than a month's supply: Europe's jet fuel stocks are wafer thin as Iran tensions flare

Highlights:

• Europe's June jet fuel imports rise to highest since September 2025, Kpler data shows
• Europe's supply and demand balance is tighter than the US and Asia, data shows
• Brussels says it could coordinate releases of national reserves if needed

Europe has imported jet fuel from the US and Asia, raised its refiners' output and drawn on stocks to keep planes flying – and yet it remains the region most exposed as renewed Middle Eastern tension raises the risk of further supply disruption.

Britain, France and Germany are particularly vulnerable in a continent where decades of refinery closures left it more reliant than most on Middle Eastern shipments via the Strait of Hormuz.

The Strait, conduit for around a fifth of the world's seaborne oil and liquefied natural gas until US-Israeli airstrikes unleashed a war on Iran at the end of February, partly reopened in June.

In July, however, a fragile truce has come under threat from strikes by both sides.

Data from consultancy Energy Aspects dated 18 June already anticipates a supply deficit across Europe of nearly 600,000 barrels per day in the third quarter, against surpluses of 116,000 bpd in the United States and 425,000 bpd in Asia-Pacific.

Inventories stood at 38 million barrels at the start of June, compared with 99 million in the United States, Energy Aspects said. That leaves Europe with less than 30 days of demand cover, Reuters calculations show — the tightest of the major jet fuel markets.

The most recent data available from the International Energy Agency's latest monthly report showed provisionally that jet fuel stocks were 10% higher year on year at the end of May, while refinery output rose 30%. The figures also implied only a month of leeway.

"We still do expect some tightness through August at this rate," said Janiv Shah, analyst at Rystad.

The European Commission has also acknowledged the situation could get worse.

EU Energy Commissioner Dan Jorgensen said in June the bloc faced tighter jet fuel stocks towards the end of the summer holiday season and that Brussels would coordinate releases of national reserves if needed.

Cargoes from Canada to South Korea

Until war broke out at the end of February, Europe had relied on the Middle East for around half of its jet fuel imports.

In March, analysts had expected African countries, which sourced nearly all their jet fuel from the Middle East, to be the hardest hit.

However, they have managed to increase imports from Nigeria's Dangote refinery, as well as India and Oman, according to data from commodities intelligence firm Kpler.

Europe, meanwhile, has so far prevented supplies running out by turning to new sellers, such as Canada.

In June, Europe overall imported 673,000 bpd of jet fuel, its highest since October 2025, Kpler data showed.

The US and Nigeria were the biggest exporters to Europe, but Kuwait, Canada, India and South Korea also provided cargoes.

Imports from India in June reached their highest since February and nearly 25,000 bpd of Kuwaiti barrels are due to arrive in August for the first time since early March through a ship-to-ship transfer on the ship Proteus Harvonne.

Before flows were interrupted, Kuwait was one of the biggest suppliers of jet fuel to the region.

Among those who increased production to ease the strain, Italian refiners increased jet fuel production by 10% in the first four months of the year.

The country's imports fell 6%, enabling domestic production to meet nearly 70% of demand in March and April, according to UNEM, Italy's fuel producers' association.

Eni, which accounts for around half of Italy's jet fuel production capacity, boosted output by importing semi-finished products from outside Europe, industry sources said.

Jet fuel prices in north-west Europe meanwhile have fallen to around $133.27 a barrel from a record $215.32 at the end of March, easing pressure on airlines. Fuel typically accounts for between 20% and 25% of operating costs.

Immediate discounts to air ticket prices are unlikely, analysts say, as demand is strong and capacity is limited, especially after many carriers cut flights to maximise fuel supplies.