Is pharma industry awaiting a roller coaster ride?

The pharmaceuticals industry made Bangladesh a unique story among all least developed countries (LDC) in terms of self-sufficiency in medicines as the local industry ascended to cater 98% of local demand, from less than 10% in early 1980s.

Moreover, Bangladeshi drug makers, already reaching around 150 countries as exporters, have been fast enough in their mission for national export diversification.

The gigantic home market, already surpassing the $3 billion milestone, is being expected to grow to over $6.5 billion before 2028. Setting aside the Ukraine War shocks that hurt all businesses in the past two years, the pharmaceuticals industry tripled their exports in the past decade.

The $175 million export in the FY 2022-23 is expected to grow to $450 million in 2025 and the companies like Square, Incepta, Beximco, Renata, ACI, among others have their strengths to take it to $1.5 billion by 2030 as expected earlier.

Major industry players are looking at the empty half of the glass. There are significant challenges in both the markets home and abroad that need to be proactively addressed and that should be under a stronger collaboration of the government, industry and the academia.

The national drug policy of 1982 helped the self-dependency as Bangladesh as an LDC got a waiver from paying patent fees to the giant international companies innovating new products and having their patents on for up to two decades.

If Bangladesh graduates from its LDC status in 2026, there is a risk of losing the cost edge after 2028 as it is yet to get any time extension.

Besides, the world is getting ready to come out of the waiver at the end of 2032 which was granted through the Trade-related Intellectual Property Rights (TRIPS) agreement at the World Trade Organization.

In 2029 or 2033, Bangladeshi drug makers will have to pay huge fees to the patent-holder companies against producing the generic versions of their patent-on drugs.

Mohammad Atiquzzaman, marketing director of Square Pharmaceuticals said to TBS, about 20% of the drugs in production in Bangladesh were still patented and the fees might increase the cost and price by several folds for some of them.

The local market may see a sharp price hike post TRIPS waiver for the products, he said.

Better, the government bargain strongly for the waiver extension till 2032-33, said S M Shafiuzzaman, secretary general of the Bangladesh Association of Pharmaceutical Industries (BAPI) that represents over 150 companies.  

A rising demand, especially in developed markets, for products with bio equivalence certification will add to costs, resources and investments in capacity building, said Atiquzzaman, adding that the cost of international compliances is high and that should be followed by export growth. 

The industry still depends on imports for 97% of the active pharmaceutical ingredients (API)- the semi-finished raw material it uses to produce medicines. The frustrating pace of the API Industrial Park in Munshiganj that should have started much before dragged the industry back in competing with giants like China, India.

API making must be efficient, said Atiquzzaman.

"Still, we have opportunities that should not be missed anymore," said Shafiuzzaman.

To avert high patent fees post waiver, the industry can start producing generic formulations of the drugs under patent before LDC graduation, he said, adding, also being the first generic maker will help boost export performance.

Each of the opportunities will be subject to success in investments and capacity building that demand companies' strong financial health and collective efforts, according to them.