The future of work, artificial intelligence, and Bangladesh’s narrowing window of opportunity

Artificial intelligence (AI), automation, and digitalisation are rapidly reshaping how economies function, how firms operate, and how people work. These forces promise efficiency and innovation, but they also threaten widespread job displacement and expose long-standing structural weaknesses.

This transformation did not begin overnight. For nearly a decade, policymakers and researchers have spoken of the "Fourth Industrial Revolution." In its early stages, the focus was largely on automation—the gradual replacement of human labour with machines. Automation has expanded rapidly in developing and emerging economies, including China and India, demonstrating that these technologies are not confined to the developed world. They spread wherever productivity gains and cost reductions are sought.

What distinguishes the current phase is the scale and speed of artificial intelligence. Today, a significant share of global investment is directed towards AI. This is not limited to technology hubs in the West; emerging economies are also making large investments. AI is no longer an auxiliary tool—it is becoming central to production planning, decision-making, logistics, and business strategy.

Looking ahead 25 years, to around 2050, it is difficult to predict the exact shape of the global economy. However, some trends are already clear. Research conducted at the Centre for Policy Dialogue on the future of work shows that digitalisation and AI will expand massively. Automation is no longer confined to factories. Even sectors traditionally considered labour-intensive are adopting advanced machinery, often powered by AI. Increasingly, production planning, forecasting, and managerial decisions are being handled by algorithms rather than humans.

Illustration: TBS

This technological shift is unfolding alongside a deeper structural transformation. Over centuries, economies moved from agriculture to industry. Over the last hundred years, manufacturing gradually gave way to services. That transition continues today, and in many cases is accelerating. Services are becoming the dominant sector of modern economies, and AI is reshaping services just as profoundly as it has transformed manufacturing.

Importantly, this transformation is not limited to high-end services such as finance or information technology. Automation and AI are increasingly embedded in education, healthcare, logistics, and public administration. Institutions that once defined these sectors are now being challenged to adapt to new technologies and delivery models.

Such changes have profound implications for labour markets. The nature of work has never been static. Five hundred years ago, occupations, skills, and income structures were vastly different from today. Transformation has always accompanied economic development. What sets the current period apart is the unprecedented speed of change.

In the nineteenth century, mechanisation altered production systems. In the twentieth century, cars, ships, and airplanes transformed trade and connectivity. After the 1980s, the internet and personal computers dramatically accelerated economic change. Today, that acceleration has intensified further, driven by AI and digital technologies.

As technology evolves, skills change and jobs emerge or disappear. Given current trends, it is entirely plausible that future discussions like this one could be conducted by machines. While complex analytical roles may take longer to be fully replaced, information processing has already become heavily AI-driven. Two decades ago, we searched for information; today, AI increasingly generates it.

For Bangladesh, the critical issue is not whether these changes will occur, but whether we can adapt quickly enough. At present, our level of preparedness is insufficient.

Bangladesh has significant potential in the evolving global economy. Time and geography are no longer the constraints they once were. From Bangladesh, individuals can work for clients abroad, manage operations remotely, and participate in global value chains. Outsourcing initially demonstrated this possibility, but today entire production processes—including machine operations—can be managed from a distance.

Many jobs no longer require physical migration. If workers possess the right skills, location becomes far less important.

Despite this, Bangladesh's labour force continues to suffer from a reputation for low skills. Even the skills of exported manpower are frequently questioned. Although institutions and policy frameworks such as the National Skills Authority have been established, a significant gap remains between the skills supplied by the education system and those demanded by domestic and international markets.

This mismatch has created a troubling paradox. In Bangladesh, the more educated an individual is, the higher the risk of unemployment. This is not because education lacks value, but because the skills acquired do not align with labour market needs. Investments in education and training have not been sufficiently matched with demand.

At the same time, Bangladesh has invested heavily in physical infrastructure—training centres, school buildings, and large development projects. However, improvements in quality have lagged behind investments in quantity. Development strategies have not been adequately aligned with changing global economic realities.

Bangladesh is not lacking in effort, but the pace of change remains too slow. The education system is rigid and slow to adapt. While Bangladeshis often demonstrate strong on-the-job learning capabilities, this adaptability has largely occurred in low-skill roles. We remain stuck in a comfort zone—both in manufacturing, particularly garments, and in overseas labour exports—dominated by low-skill segments.

This failure to move systematically into semi-skilled and skilled labour markets is especially concerning given Bangladesh's demographic trajectory. Over the past decade, economic growth benefited from a demographic dividend, as a large cohort of young people entered the labour force. However, this window will soon begin to close. Within the next five to seven years, the dividend will plateau, and by 2030–2035, it is likely to decline as the population ages.

This demographic opportunity is unique. It will not return for another 150 years. To manage the future burden of an ageing population, productivity must rise sharply—and that requires a more skilled workforce today.

Female labour force participation represents another major opportunity. Currently, women's participation stands at around 26–27%, compared to 80–85% for men. Increasing women's participation over the next decade could significantly reduce dependency ratios and strengthen economic resilience. Technological trends make this possible, but only if supported by appropriate policies, childcare infrastructure, workplace safety, and social acceptance.

Beyond technology and demographics, global conditions will also shape Bangladesh's future. Trade regimes, geopolitics, access to training, and international cooperation will influence opportunities. Climate change adds another critical dimension. The transition to green technologies will create new types of jobs, but without domestic investment in skills and production capacity, Bangladesh risks remaining import-dependent—whether for fossil fuels or renewable energy technologies. Strategic investment could ensure that many of these jobs are created at home.

The next 20 to 25 years will determine Bangladesh's long-term trajectory, but the next decade is particularly decisive. Our education system is not prepared for the scale of transformation required. Investment must go beyond buildings and infrastructure. It must focus on teachers, training, curriculum reform, and governance.

At the same time, healthcare investment remains critically low. Public health spending in Bangladesh stands at around 0.7% of GDP—among the lowest globally—while reliance on out-of-pocket expenditure remains extremely high. Without adequate healthcare, productivity gains will be difficult to sustain.

Macroeconomic stability is necessary but insufficient. Corruption, weak governance, low tax mobilisation, and inadequate foreign direct investment continue to constrain economic transformation. Without mobilising domestic resources and attracting sustained investment, structural change will remain elusive.

Ultimately, none of this is possible without the rule of law. Investors—domestic and foreign alike—will not commit resources in an environment characterised by political instability, corruption, and weak institutions. Credibility, confidence, and policy flexibility are essential for recovery and long-term growth.

Even after elections, investment recovery is not guaranteed unless governance improves and reforms deepen. The next five to ten years will determine whether Bangladesh can change course or miss its moment.

Bangladesh's greatest asset is its people. But in the future of work, certificates will matter less than skills, adaptability, and institutional support. Countries that succeed do so not by chance, but through foresight, timely reform, and political will. Without deep and sustained reforms in governance, education, and human capital development, the future we aspire to will remain beyond reach.

Abridged from an interview on 'TBS Future' hosted by TBS Executive Editor Shakawat Liton

Toufiqul Islam Khan, Additional Director, Research, Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD). Sketch: TBS