France named World Cup favourites as Opta supercomputer backs former champions in semi-finals
Opta's projections are based on 25,000 tournament simulations. France have a 34.0% chance of lifting the trophy, the highest among the remaining teams, and a 57.7% probability of reaching the final
France are the favourites to win the 2026 Fifa World Cup, according to projections from the Opta supercomputer, as the tournament heads into a semi-final line-up featuring only former champions.
France, Spain, England and defending champions Argentina make up the final four, marking only the third time in World Cup history that all four semi-finalists have previously won the title. The feat was last achieved in 1990, having first occurred in 1970, says The Analyst.
Opta's projections are based on 25,000 tournament simulations. France have a 34.0% chance of lifting the trophy, the highest among the remaining teams, and a 57.7% probability of reaching the final.
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Didier Deschamps' side, led by Kylian Mbappé with eight goals and Ousmane Dembélé with five, are bidding to reach a third consecutive World Cup final. Deschamps is also set to oversee his 26th World Cup match as France coach in the semi-final against Spain, setting a competition record.
Spain are given a 23.4% chance of winning the tournament and a 42.3% probability of reaching the final. The 2010 champions enter the last four on a 36-match unbeaten run and have benefited from the impact of substitute Mikel Merino, whose late goals secured victories in both the round of 16 and the quarter-final against Belgium.
England have a 21.9% chance of winning the title and a 50.9% probability of advancing to the final. The 1966 champions have reached their fourth major tournament semi-final since 2018, with Jude Bellingham emerging as their leading performer after scoring six goals during the tournament.
Argentina, the defending champions, are assigned a 20.6% chance of retaining their title and a 49.1% probability of reaching the final, making them the lowest-ranked of the four remaining teams in Opta's projections. Lionel Messi has scored eight goals in the tournament but failed to score for the first time in Argentina's quarter-final victory over Switzerland.
For the semi-finals, the Opta supercomputer favours France to defeat Spain and reach the final. The England-Argentina semi-final is projected to be closely contested, with England holding a narrow statistical edge over the defending champions.
