Rethinking post-uprising Bangladesh’s foreign policy

Illustration: TBS

The recent student-led uprising has presented Bangladesh with a significant opportunity to rebuild its damaged institutions and reconsider policies that no longer serve the nation's interests. 

Now, we need to reconsider the true meaning of Bangladesh's foreign policy principle: "Friendship to all, malice to none." 

An important question now arises: What should our stance be when our national interests are harmed? Is 'friendship' still the right approach? 

India: Time for fairer engagement

Under Sheikh Hasina's leadership, Bangladesh has often prioritised India's interests, sometimes at the expense of its own people. She allowed India transit rights through Bangladesh without reciprocity and agreed to a long-term power purchase agreement with the Adani Group. She also granted India permanent access to the ports of Chattogram and Mongla. 

However, key demands from the Bangladeshi side — such as ending border killings by the Border Security Force (BSF) and reaching a fair water-sharing agreement on the Teesta River — have remained unresolved for over 14 years. This is unfortunate, as in international relations, friendship is a two-way street.

Since bilateral negotiations have not yielded any positive outcomes, Bangladesh should consider pursuing international legal avenues to resolve water-sharing disputes. 

Meanwhile, the new government should seek reliable alternative sources for essential imports like rice and onions to avoid dependency on Indian markets, which have been prone to manipulation.

US: Superpower with super opportunities

It seems that Sheikh Hasina's government adopted a rather complex strategy in dealing with the United States. Publicly, the government frequently accused the US of interfering in Bangladesh's internal affairs, with Hasina herself even claiming that the US was trying to remove her from power. 

However, behind the scenes, the Awami League-led government invested heavily in lobbying efforts to sway the US administration's opinion in their favour, revealing a strong concern about how Washington views the ruling party in Bangladesh. 

Additionally, the government leveraged its connections with India to influence the US following one-sided or questionable elections.

The US played a key role in Bangladesh's development by donating 114 million Covid-19 vaccine doses, aiding millions and easing economic strain. Bangladesh has seen a 300% rise in students attending US universities, with 13,563 enrolled in the most recent academic year. 

Furthermore, the US is a significant market for Bangladeshi garments and one of the top sources of remittances. It also supports NGOs, defence forces, and UN peacekeeping efforts. 

Given Bangladesh's strategic geographic location and the various security challenges it faces, both traditional and non-traditional, there is significant potential for strengthening US-Bangladesh security and economic ties. 

During Sheikh Hasina's rule, the US sanctions on the Rapid Action Battalion (RAB) gave much-needed hope to Bangladeshi human rights and political activists during a critical period.

Strengthening US-Bangladesh ties could impact India's influence in the region, particularly amid rising anti-India sentiment. To align with the US Indo-Pacific strategy, Bangladesh must clarify its Indo-Pacific outlook, pursue US International Development Finance Corporation (DFC) funding, and aim to regain Generalised System of Preferences (GSP) status to enhance its global standing.
 

China: Risks and realities

China aligned its mega projects and Belt and Road Initiative with Sheikh Hasina's political and development agenda, effectively providing significant support to her government through large-scale infrastructure and development projects. 

Economically, Bangladesh remains heavily dependent on Chinese raw materials and goods. 

While concerns about a "debt trap" with China may not entirely apply to Bangladesh, the terms of Chinese loans should be carefully considered. Chinese loans can be beneficial if there is a guarantee of feasibility, proper environmental assessments, and continuous monitoring.

The reality is that some Chinese-funded projects approved by Hasina's government were not necessarily needed but were undertaken to promote a narrative of rapid development and to create opportunities for corruption. 

Conversely, some essential projects were delayed due to pressure from India. One such example is China's interest in funding the billion-dollar Teesta River Comprehensive Management and Restoration Project. 

However, India, leveraging its close relationship with Hasina, pushed China out of the equation. It is doubtful that India would genuinely follow through on its commitments regarding this matter, given that it is part of the problem that pushed Bangladesh to consider such a project in the first place.

Bangladesh should seriously consider adopting a river basin approach to water security and management, involving China in the discussions, especially considering China's upstream Brahmaputra dam project. 

In 2022, China's exports to Bangladesh totaled $26.81 billion, whereas Bangladesh's exports to China were only $952 million. Without expanding the range of goods exported to China, the Free Trade Agreement (FTA) that Bangladesh initiated will yield limited benefits.

On the defence and security front, deeper strategic engagement with China could pose significant challenges for Bangladesh, particularly in its relations with India, the US, and Western countries. The $1.2 billion China-built six-slot submarine base in Cox's Bazar has already sent unsettling signals to Bangladesh's closest neighbours and Western development partners.
 

Russia: Old is not always gold

Bangladesh acknowledges and remembers the support and contribution of the Soviet Union during its Liberation War. 

Amidst serious allegations of corruption against Sheikh Hasina's government and its decision-makers, Bangladesh should reassess the true costs and implications of the $12.65 billion Rooppur Nuclear Power Plant (RNPP) project. Additionally, issues related to nuclear energy safety and nuclear waste management must be made public, as Bangladesh lacks expertise and experience in these critical areas.

There is considerable potential for increasing Bangladeshi ready-made garment (RMG) exports to the Russian market. Given the current foreign reserve situation, Bangladesh could explore options for credit and delayed payments for essential imports such as food grains and fertilisers from Russia. 

In the midst of tensions with the US, Sheikh Hasina's government allowed a Russian Navy squadron from the Pacific Fleet to dock in Bangladesh in November 2023. This move certainly sent the wrong signal to Bangladesh's Western development partners. 

Before trying to engage and manoeuvre among major global powers, decision-makers in Bangladesh should first address the fundamental questions about national interests and priorities. If decisions are truly guided by national interests, the country's priorities and allies will be clear. 

However, if the aim is to manipulate foreign policy to stay in power, Bangladesh may end up seeking out a very different set of "friends," potentially including autocratic regimes.
 

Rohingya crisis: New players, new dynamics

In a recent interview with The Diplomat, Arakan Army Commander-in-Chief Major General Twan Mrat Naing stated, "We are always in favour of repatriation [of Rohingya Muslims] in principle, and there should be voluntary, dignified, and safe repatriation under conducive conditions." 

Given that the Arakan Army now controls Rakhine State, the Bangladesh government should consider initiating dialogue with them. Over the past seven years, attempts at repatriation, including China's mediation and the Myanmar junta's so-called 'cooperation,' have failed to yield any positive outcomes. 

Bangladesh should also engage the US and other Western allies, who are among the largest donors supporting the repatriation efforts. 

Additionally, Bangladesh should approach India as well because now India has an opportunity to improve its image in Bangladesh.
 

Looking ahead 

Bangladesh should take the initiative to revive the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC), even though India's stance remains uncertain. 

Bangladesh should continue to take a leading role in international climate diplomacy, advocating for the interests of countries most vulnerable to climate change. 

As the fourth-largest Muslim-majority nation, Bangladesh also has the potential to play a more significant role in strengthening the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) and enhancing its effectiveness. 

At the same time, it is crucial for Bangladesh to avoid getting entangled in the proxy conflicts of major global powers and to focus on maintaining a balanced and independent foreign policy.

Mohammad Mahabubur Rahman is a Communications Specialist and International Relations Analyst. He was a Fulbright Hubert H Humphrey Fellow at the University of Maryland.

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the opinions and views of The Business Standard.