In bid for survival, India’s opposition tries to work together

In a series of meetings last year, India's opposition parties discussed what for many was increasingly a matter of survival. Prime Minister Narendra Modi's electoral juggernaut had battered them in two consecutive national elections, and they needed to fight back.

Over 20 parties stitched together an alliance they hoped would pose a credible challenge to Modi by shedding ideological differences, pooling resources, adroitly sharing seats, and not stealing each other's votes.

It also meant the largest party in the group, the Indian National Congress, who won just 52 seats in parliament out of 543 in 2019, would have to take a backseat to regional parties in their strongholds or where they have a more popular candidate.

After initial hiccups with seat sharing and a deflating loss in state elections last year, there has been progress. They've successfully divided up seats in some key states and the Congress is contesting the fewest constituencies it has in its storied history, which Yamini Aiyar, a political scientist, says is recognition within the party that "they're not the front runner and the alliance partner plays a more important role."

Aiyar, who till recently was president of the Center for Policy Research, a New Delhi-based think tank, says "the Congress has often pushed back on it, but finally it has in some ways gotten over its own arrogance and is willing to be a second player when needed."

Congress and the alliance face a formidable opponent. Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party has an enviable ground game. Its coffers are deep. Modi remains one of the world's most popular leaders. The economy has grown strongly, and in its decade in power, his government has effectively delivered on welfare programs.

But interviews with analysts, opposition party workers and voters signal it may not all be smooth sailing for Modi and the BJP. Modi's ambitious seat target, his dominant role in the party, the lack of an over-arching emotive issue, the rising cost of living and rampant unemployment are all seen as challenges. On the other hand, the Congress's messaging on effectively distributing wealth appears to have traction among voters.

While expected to easily win according most pre-election polls, in an interview with an Indian broadcaster Friday, Modi acknowledged that he faces more of a challenge this time around. Voter turnout has been down in the election's first three phases, and Indian markets appear jittery.

Take the city of Aurangabad — some 340 km (211.27 miles) east of Mumbai, India's financial capital — as a test case for the opposition's chances. It is a dusty, arid town in India's wealthiest state, Maharashtra, plagued by water shortages and home to 1.6 million people, about a third of whom are from the country's Muslim minority.

The city has long been a bastion of the hardline, Hindu majoritarian Shiv Sena party. The party split two years ago, and a faction, the Shiv Sena (UBT), is now aligned with the Congress. Another has remained allied with the BJP.

Three weeks ago, around 5000 people showed up to the inauguration of the alliance candidate's campaign office. Chandrakant Khaire is a member of that hardline Hindu party but on hand were members not just from his own party but also from the Congress and other alliance members — all former rivals.

Local leaders described the moment as a sign of changing times. "People came with passion to the event," said Pathan Imran Khan, a member of another key regional party. "It was a show of strength for the alliance."

Khaire has a strong track record, having won the seat four times in a row, but narrowly lost to a candidate from a small, primarily Muslim party last time around.

ust ten days before the city was scheduled to head to the polls, at Khaire's modest home, dozens of local politicians waited patiently in an outer office, sipping sweetened tea. Khaire, 72, arrived in a crisp white kurta and orange vest, his forehead anointed with sandalwood paste. His office is covered in religious imagery and he first paid homage to a photograph of his party's late founder — a hardline Hindu nationalist — before launching into a strategy session with three Congress leaders on how to lobby — and win over — the city's Muslims.

The alliance is hoping they can win by retaining Khaire's Hindu base while picking up Muslim votes and those disillusioned with the BJP.

For Khaire, there is a broader message for voters — the opposition's fears of democratic erosion under Modi's decade in power.

"This election is about the future of this country," said Khaire. "If the BJP wins, this country will be over, the Muslim society will be over, and we will all go to jail," alluding to the opposition's allegations that many of its leaders are being targeted by federal investigative agencies for alleged corruption and money laundering.