No end to war in Europe, but Gaza-Israel nearing truce

On the European front, the Ukraine war will continue into next year. It has run into a great deal of uncertainty because of the fact that the US Congress is now blocking funds for Ukraine, so that is one challenge. But eventually, my sense is that the funds will be released, and we have heard that the US Congress has deferred their holiday and are having a fresh look at the Ukraine funding. So that fund could possibly be released.

But this issue with US funding highlights the fact that there is now a division within the US political system on the Ukraine issue. The rock-solid support that we saw a year ago seems to be gone now.

I do not know where it will end up. But this is one challenging area for Ukraine and it means that Russia could intensify its attacks. On the other hand, the European Union is now playing a more active role. They have decided to integrate Ukraine into the EU. It is a long process, but they have decided in principle to do that.

That's the good news; the bad news is that their $50 billion in assistance to Ukraine has been blocked by Hungary. So, cracks are developing within the EU and the US. But I sense that Western assistance will come eventually, which means the Ukraine war will continue well into 2024.
On the flip side, I think the Hamas-Israel conflict in Gaza will end within the next month or so, but the destruction and devastation that occurred here will keep the tension very high. I think that if President Biden can get reelected by the end of 2024 — that's a big if — then he might take some initiative for a two-state solution because the Biden administration is now trying to marginalise Hamas by empowering the Palestinian authority.

But that is easier said than done. That can only be done, in my view, if the two-state solution becomes more realisable. And if the two-state solution doesn't happen, then I think that tensions might continue both in Gaza and in the West Bank.

In the last few years, Israel and some Arab states have been trying to build up relationships. That has been scuttled for the time being due to the Gaza war and that vibration will continue in 2024 as well. So, it means that the Middle East will possibly continue to be unstable.

So, these are two major issues that will influence regional issues and, at the same time, might influence the global political process as well. We have seen how these issues are being played out at the UN, G20, and G7, so it means that although these are regional issues, they have some global implications.

Sketch: TBS

The author is a former ambassador.