Jatiya Party dreaming big in absence of BNP

The Jatiya Party, which has participated in the last three national polls either in alliance or through negotiations with the Awami League since 2008, dreams of forming the government by winning at least 151 seats wooing anti-Awami League voters in the upcoming national election.

The party leaders say if people can vote freely, they are expecting a "silent revolution" in the next election similar to that of the 5th national polls held in 1991.

On Wednesday, leaders of Awami League and Jatiya Party held a closed-door meeting and then stated that seat sharing was not a topic of discussion.

However, sources disclosed that the Jatiya Party initially suggested negotiations for 50 seats, later modifying the proposal to 35-40. But no final decision was reached during the meeting, they said.

Jatiya Party leaders told The Business Standard that their voting base is similar to that of the BNP, which has boycotted the 7 January election. The party anticipates receiving support from anti-Awami voters to be victorious.

In the 1991 election, which was held under a caretaker government, the AL was initially confident of securing victory, with detailed plans for ministry assignments in place. However, the final outcome saw the BNP emerging as the winner.

In that election, the Jatiya Party walked alone, fielding candidates in 272 seats, and achieved its highest record so far by winning 35 seats.

The election took place a year after the fall of dictator and Jatiya Party founder HM Ershad through a mass movement demanding restoration of democracy.

Subsequently, the party's parliamentary representation began to decline, securing 32 seats in the 1996 elections when the Awami League formed the government. In 2001, the tally further decreased to 14 as the BNP emerged victorious.

The trend shifted in the 2008 elections when the party, aligning with the Awami League, nearly doubled its seats to 27.

In 2014, amid the BNP's election boycott, the Jatiya Party increased its seats to 34 through negotiations with the Awami League. However, with the BNP's participation in 2018, the party's parliamentary seats diminished to 22 in that election.

What happened at the closed-door meeting? 

On Wednesday night in Gulshan, a closed-door meeting took place between Jatiya Party Secretary General Mujibul Haque Chunnu, co-chairman Anisul Islam Mahmud, and Awami League General Secretary Obaidul Quader, along with other senior leaders.

Obaidul Quader, commenting on the meeting, mentioned that discussions between leaders from the main opposition in parliament, the Jatiya Party, and the AL-led 14-Party Alliance focused on ensuring peaceful elections. But, there was no dialogue regarding seat sharing with the Jatiya Party.

Echoing Quader, Mujibul Haque Chunnu said in a press conference yesterday that there was no seat-sharing agreement with the Awami League. "There will be a tough contest between the Awami League and the Jatiya Party in the upcoming elections."

Addressing Wednesday's meeting, Chunnu said, "The Awami League has positive intentions. However, the election experience of the last five years has been unfavorable, and concerns about a fair election persist. If people across the country can cast their votes, a silent revolution akin to 1991 is possible."

"Our focus is on ensuring a fair election atmosphere, and they have assured us of that," he added.

The Jatiya Party general secretary added that the count of anti-Awami votes surpasses that of the Awami League's supporters.

"If the anti-Awami voters rally behind us, we anticipate a silent voting revolution. The Jatiya Party is actively participating in the polls, relying on the support of anti-Awami League voters and has fielded candidates for 300 seats," he said.

Can JaPa really woo anti-Awami voters? 

In the 2008 and 2018 elections, the Jatiya Party joined forces with the AL in alliance. In 2014, while there was no formal alliance, the Awami League refrained from fielding candidates in constituencies where agreements were reached with the Jatiya Party.

Jatiya Party candidates secured victories in those designated seats, while in the remaining constituencies, the party's candidates faced substantial defeats.

Amid the BNP's boycott of the 2014 elections, the Jatiya Party secured 12 lakh votes by fielding candidates in 86 constituencies.

During the 2008 elections, the Jatiya Party contested in 49 seats, emerging victorious in 27 by getting 4,926,360 votes. In contrast, the BNP, contesting in 260 constituencies, garnered around 2.85 crore votes in that election.

In the 2018 elections, the Jatiya Party secured victory in 22 seats out of 178 contested, amassing over 44 lakh votes. Meanwhile, the BNP garnered approximately one crore votes across 256 constituencies.

Following the 2008 elections, Jatiya Party's current chairman, GM Quader, secured a ministerial position in the formed cabinet.

Following the 2014 election, Ershad assumed the role of the special envoy of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina in the Awami League-led government. During the same period, Mojibul Haque Chunnu served as the State Minister of Labour and Employment from 2014 to 2019.

Concurrently, Roushan Ershad has held the position of the leader of the opposition in the parliament since 2014.

When questioned whether anti-Awami voters support the Jatiya Party, given their participation in the previous election in alliance with the Awami League, Mujibul Haque Chunnu, said, "The anti-Awami vote is our vote. We can expect to garner their support."

In the last two by-polls the Jatiya Party candidates faced defeat, prompting questions among political analysts about the apparent contradiction if the anti-Awami vote is indeed shifting towards the Jatiya Party.

Several leaders from both the parties have suggested that the Jatiya Party aims to contest the election with a guaranteed victory in at least 35 seats through negotiations with the Awami League. However, the Awami League is hesitant to sacrifice such a significant number of seats.