Bank of Canada seen set for another jumbo hike in inflation fight

The Bank of Canada is widely expected to announce another supersized interest rate increase on Wednesday as it battles to curb inflation at a near-four-decade high, with all eyes on the statement for any change to its aggressive stance.

It is the first rate decision since the central bank surprised with a 100 basis point hike in July and while the consensus is for a 75 basis point move this time, some forecasters are not ruling out another surprise to lift interest rates clearly into restrictive territory in one-go.

"If ... you've said that you're going to front-load these interest rate hikes to try and put a lid on inflation quickly, then there's a logical argument to just doing more all at once, rather than waiting," said Nathan Janzen, assistant chief economist at Royal Bank of Canada.

The Bank of Canada will release its decision at 10am ET (1400 GMT), with 20 of 25 economists surveyed by Reuters eyeing an increase to 3.25% from 2.5%, to be followed by another hike in October to 3.5%, a level last seen in March 2008.

Money markets have fully priced in a 75 basis point move, with two more 25 basis point increases to end 2022 at 3.75%.

Canada's headline inflation rate eased to 7.6% in July from 8.1% in June, but it is still nearly four times the central bank's 2% target. And the closely watched core measures, on average, hit a fresh high in July. 

Adding to this, Canada's jobless rate is a record low and wage growth is strong. 

Still, a handful of economists say the Bank of Canada could surprise with a smaller 50 basis point move, after recent data showed economic growth slowing more quickly than expected. The bank has so far this year increased rates by 225 basis points, sending home sales and prices down. 

With rates seen entering restrictive territory for the first time in two decades on Wednesday, the bigger question for some is whether the central bank will change its tone or even signal a pause. 

"I see them indeed starting to tone down hawkish forward guidance a bit and return to a data-dependent stance," said Jimmy Jean, chief economist at Desjardins Group.

"I think this will be the last supersized hike and they might convey that sense, without ruling out more hiking," he added. "I don't think they can paint themselves in a corner on the terminal rate at this point."