Super El Nino takes shape: Where will it bring rain, drought and heat?
Forecasters say the Pacific Ocean warming pattern could be among the strongest on record. Here is what it means for weather, food supplies and temperatures around the world.
A powerful El Nino is taking shape in the Pacific Ocean, threatening to reshape weather patterns across the globe with heavier rain in some regions, drought in others and warmer temperatures almost everywhere.
El Nino is a natural climate pattern caused by warmer-than-usual sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean.
Data released by the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) on 14 September 2026 shows the warming has crossed the 2°C (3.6°F) threshold, making the event "very strong" – informally described as a super El Nino, reports Al Jazeera.
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The current El Nino began developing in June and is expected to peak in early 2027. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center expects it to persist through March-May 2027, while forecasters warn that it could become one of the strongest events ever recorded.
According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), El Nino occurs every two to seven years. It generally begins between March and June, peaks between November and February, and can last for up to 18 months.
Where could it bring more rain?
A very strong El Nino typically brings wetter conditions to parts of East Africa, South America and the southern United States.
East Africa is expected to receive heavier-than-usual rainfall between October and December. The IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre, based in Ngong, Kenya, estimates a 90% chance of wetter conditions in southern Ethiopia, central and southern Somalia and northeastern Kenya.
The rains account for up to 70% of the region's annual rainfall, meaning increased precipitation could also raise the risk of flooding.
El Nino also tends to increase rainfall in parts of South America and the southern US. Wetter conditions are expected along the coasts of Ecuador and northern Peru in early 2027, before spreading to southern Brazil, Uruguay and northeastern Argentina between September 2026 and January 2027.
Where could it turn drier?
South Asia, Southeast Asia, Australia and Southern Africa typically experience drier conditions during El Nino events.
India and Pakistan have already experienced a weaker summer monsoon. Rainfall across India was 15% below average between 1 June and 9 September, according to the India Meteorological Department.
Indonesia is facing a drier season and an increased risk of wildfires. Its meteorological agency, BMKG, recorded 5,019 hotspots by late July, with Sumatra and Kalimantan facing the highest risks.
Australia's Bureau of Meteorology expects below-average rainfall across southern and eastern areas, while warmer temperatures are expected to increase wildfire risks.
The South African Weather Service is also forecasting below-normal rainfall and above-normal temperatures across most of the country through spring and summer.
How could El Nino affect food supplies?
The weather pattern could also worsen global food insecurity.
The World Food Programme (WFP) estimates that El Nino could push at least 49 million additional people into acute hunger by the end of 2027.
That would increase the number of people facing acute hunger in the 45 countries analysed by the agency from 225 million to 274 million. Eastern and Southern Africa and Latin America are expected to face some of the largest increases.
The UN Food and Agriculture Organization has warned that maize, rice and other rain-fed crops are particularly vulnerable. Dry conditions could threaten harvests across Southern Africa and the Sahel, as well as South and Southeast Asia.
"El Nino is a massive threat to the food security of millions who are already vulnerable," said Carl Skau, WFP's acting executive director.
Will El Nino make the world hotter?
Yes.
El Nino generally raises global temperatures, with its strongest warming effect often occurring in the year after the phenomenon develops.
The WMO expects above-normal temperatures across almost all regions from September to November. It also estimates an 86% chance that at least one year between now and 2030 will surpass 2024 as the hottest year on record.
"There is an El Nino predicted for the end of 2026, which increases the chances of the following year, 2027, being the next record-breaking year," said Leon Hermanson, who led the forecast.
What about snow?
El Nino can significantly influence winter snowfall in North America through changes in the jet stream – fast-moving, high-altitude winds that steer storms.
During El Nino, the strongest part of the jet stream shifts southward and extends farther east, directing more storms across the southern third of North America.
NOAA scientists have described El Nino as "the great snowfall suppressor" for much of the continent.
During previous El Nino winters, snowfall was below average around the Great Lakes, interior New England, the northern Rockies, the Pacific Northwest, western Canada and Alaska. The southern United States, particularly at higher elevations, generally received more snow.
The relationship is less pronounced in Europe. The UK's Met Office expects a greater chance of wetter and stormier conditions in northwestern Europe this autumn and early winter, while the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts has linked El Nino to colder late winters in Northern Europe.
What else could change?
A strong El Nino usually suppresses Atlantic hurricane activity. NOAA's August outlook gave a 75% chance of a below-normal Atlantic hurricane season, noting that every strong El Nino event in recent history has been associated with below-average activity.
However, forecasters stress that no two El Nino events are identical.
The WMO cautions that the strength of an El Nino does not directly determine the scale of its impacts in any particular region. Conditions in the Indian and Atlantic oceans can also influence how the phenomenon affects individual countries.
"El Nino is being supersized before our eyes," UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said in a WMO statement. "The science leaves no room for doubt: the planet is in uncharted waters, and those waters are heating up."
