Bandwidth demand surge to 27Tbps threatens shortage by 2028

Bangladesh's international bandwidth demand and the need for new investments is rising rapidly, but delays in deciding on new submarine cable connections could create a major capacity crunch by 2028, industry stakeholders warned at a workshop today (31 August).

The country's international bandwidth use, now about 13.5 terabits per second (Tbps), is projected to reach 19.1 Tbps in 2027 and nearly 27 Tbps in 2028, according to data presented at the event.

The Telecom and Technology Reporters Network Bangladesh (TRNB) organised the workshop titled "The need for new submarine cables to protect digital sovereignty and meet future bandwidth demand", in Dhaka yesterday.

International bandwidth use has increased nearly 260-fold over the past 13 years. It rose from just 50 Gbps in 2013 to 0.76 Tbps in 2018, 1.78 Tbps in 2020, 4.2 Tbps in 2022, 6.86 Tbps in 2024 and about 13.5 Tbps in 2026.

The demand could reach 54 Tbps by 2030, 305 Tbps by 2035 and 432 Tbps by 2036, according to the projections.

Bangladesh currently relies mainly on two government-owned submarine cables, SEA-ME-WE-4 and SEA-ME-WE-5, with capacities of 4.6 Tbps and 2.5 Tbps, respectively. Part of the remaining demand is met through bandwidth imported via International Terrestrial Cable (ITC) operators.

Bangladesh also has relatively few international submarine cable connections compared with regional peers. India is connected to 19 cables, Malaysia to 23, Thailand to 12 and the Philippines to 19, while Bangladesh's main connections currently number only two.

This leaves the country vulnerable to pressure on international internet services if a cable faces faults, maintenance or other disruptions, participants said.

Although the government's third submarine cable, SEA-ME-WE-6, is expected to add capacity, further expansion will be needed in the long term. SEA-ME-WE-4 is also scheduled to reach the end of its operational life in 2030.

Industry stakeholders see approval for privately owned submarine cables as a potential solution. They estimate that proposed cables could add around 51 Tbps of capacity, taking the country's total capacity to about 67 Tbps.

Mohammad Aminul Hakim, chief executive officer of Metacore Subcom Ltd, said private submarine cables could increase competition in the international bandwidth market and reduce dependence on bandwidth imported through ITCs.

He also said the proposal could create scope for lower internet prices.

Mashiur Rahman, chief executive officer of C-Data Communications Ltd, and Mahmud Shahed, project lead at Metacore Subcom Ltd, made separate presentations on Bangladesh's submarine cable infrastructure, future bandwidth demand and the need for new investment.

Stakeholders said planning, financing, constructing and commissioning submarine cables take several years. Waiting until demand and shortages become apparent could therefore delay the availability of required capacity.

They said Bangladesh should start planning new international connections now, considering demand beyond 2030.