Turkey targets more defence sales as West rearms, alliances shift

Highlights:

• Turkey's defence exports have tripled since 2021 to $10 billion
• Faces EU barriers, but has secured several bilateral deals
• Officials to showcase sector at July NATO summit in Ankara

Two decades of state investment have transformed Turkey into a major exporter of drones and other military equipment, and the NATO member is now looking to build on that momentum as the West rearms and security alliances are reshaped.

Turkey, once heavily reliant on foreign arms makers, now supplies nearly 40 countries mainly in the Gulf, Africa, Asia and parts of Europe with weapons that many buyers see as cheaper, faster to deliver and more adaptable than alternatives.

As European governments reassess security dependencies following Russia's invasion of Ukraine and question the durability of US guarantees, many NATO allies increasingly see Turkey not only as a military bulwark on the alliance's south-eastern flank but also as a potential industrial partner.

Ankara hopes hosting US President Donald Trump and other NATO leaders at a summit next month will help expand arms sales and joint production in Western markets, particularly the European Union. There, Turkish firms face structural barriers including members-only defence initiatives and political resistance tied to broader diplomatic disputes.

A Reuters review of trade figures shows Turkish defence exports - including the high-profile armed drones used by Ukrainian forces - have more than tripled since 2021 to $10 billion last year, accounting for about 3.7% of total exports from the major emerging market economy.

Exports to Europe and the US almost quadrupled over the same period to $5.6 billion.

That growth reflects a maturing domestic defence industry that includes drone-maker Baykar, Turkish Aerospace Industries, and smaller firms such as Arca Defense and Kale.

Analysts say sustained state backing, flexible supply chains and a willingness to customise systems for buyers have allowed such firms to move quickly into markets where Western suppliers face capacity constraints or lengthy procurement cycles.

War threats and opportunities

Turkey aims to double defence exports in two years, its defence agency says, potentially generating vital revenues as it looks to pay down debt and fund further development.

Sitting between two major conflicts - Ukraine to the north and Iran to the south-east - Turkey's own security is also at stake, given its gaps in air defences and jet and tank engines that could be addressed through trade and technology deals.

Can Kasapoglu, senior fellow at the Hudson Institute, said Turkey's defence industry had made a "major leap" by exporting advanced systems, especially aerial drones.

The war in Ukraine, he said, underscored that modern warfare depended not only on cutting-edge platforms but also on industrial depth and sustainability - areas where Turkey has gained credibility.

Nato summit showcase

Turkey supplies about 65% of armed drones used worldwide and is a major exporter of ammunition. It also produces, or plans to produce, frigates, an aircraft carrier, air defence systems and armoured vehicles. Indonesia said last year it would buy 48 Turkish fighter jets currently under development.

Turkey's ambitions also carry political and reputational risks. Last month, it unveiled a prototype domestic intercontinental ballistic missile at a defence show in Istanbul, prompting criticism from some experts over feasibility and messaging after a promotional video depicted a hypothetical launch that appeared to target North America.

Turkish officials say the defence sector will be a focal point at the NATO meeting in Ankara on 7–8 July. Alliance chief Mark Rutte has said a planned defence industry forum there would be NATO's most comprehensive yet.