El Nino threat looms as India forecasts lowest monsoon rainfall in 11 years

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) today (29 May) forecast a weaker monsoon for most parts of the country this year caused by El Nino effect which will bring the lowest rainfall in 11 years, raising concerns for agriculture and growth in the world's fifth-largest economy already facing energy squeeze and inflation from the Middle East war.

An El Nino occurs when ocean temperatures rise above normal in the central and eastern Pacific, bringing hot and dry weather to Southeast Asia and other regions.

The latest update by IMD suggests 84% probability for below normal or less rainfall for the country as a whole during June to September.

It indicates that below-normal seasonal rainfall is most likely over most parts of the country.

The average rainfall for the country as a whole in June is most likely to be below normal, said IMD, adding below-normal rainfall may lead to challenges for agriculture, water availability, hydropower generation along with increased risks of drought, heat stress and pressure on drinking water resources.

The monsoon months deliver nearly 70% of India's annual rains to replenish crucial water sources in a nearly $4-trillion economy.

This year's monsoon is seen at 90% of a long-period average, below an April forecast of 92%, M Ravichandran, secretary at the Earth Sciences Ministry, told the media in New Delhi.

That would make it the weakest since 2015 when the El Nino weather phenomenon reduced rainfall to 87%, he said.

Ravichandran said an El Nino is likely to develop soon and influence rainfall, with its intensity expected to range between moderate and strong in the latter half of the monsoon season.

Meanwhile, India's Agriculture Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan today cautioned state governments to brace for possible low rainfall or other challenging weather conditions in view of the El Nino threat and the IMD forecast of a below-normal monsoon this year.

He said the federal Agriculture Ministry is chalking out contingency plans to deal with any eventuality.

He said there is adequate availability of seeds and fertilisers to meet demand during the upcoming Kharif (summer-sown) season that will begin from June with the onset of southwest monsoon.

"We are monitoring the El Nino phenomenon. We are not sure as of now but if such a situation arises and if there is any delay in monsoon or gap in rains, we are making preparations to deal with it," he told reporters at an event in New Delhi.