Bangladesh's economy to grow 4.7% in FY26, slow further to 4.3% in FY27: IMF
Bangladesh’s inflation is now expected to rise to 9.2% in FY26, higher than the earlier estimate of 8.9%. However, the global lender projects inflation to decline sharply to 6% in FY27.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) today (14 April) projected that Bangladesh's gross domestic product (GDP) will grow by 4.7% in the current fiscal year (FY26), before slowing to 4.3% in FY27.
The FY26 growth forecast remains unchanged from the IMF's January projection.
Bangladesh's inflation is now expected to rise to 9.2% in FY26, higher than the earlier estimate of 8.9%.
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However, the global lender projects inflation to decline sharply to 6% in FY27.
Meanwhile, the government has set a provisional target of 6.5% GDP growth for the next fiscal year, aiming to return to a high-growth trajectory as part of its ambition to build a trillion-dollar economy by 2034.
The government is also targeting an inflation rate of 7.5% in FY27, which is higher than the IMF's projection.
The IMF's growth outlook is more optimistic than forecasts by the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank, both of which released their projections earlier this month.
On 8 April, the World Bank expected the country's economy to grow by 3.9% in the current fiscal year, before rising to 4.6% in FY27.
The World Bank warned that Bangladesh's economy faces significant challenges with slowing growth and rising poverty for three consecutive years, persistent inflation, a stressed banking sector, weak revenue mobilisation, and subdued private investment, which is further compounded by the headwinds from the conflict in the Middle East.
Meanwhile, on 10 April, Asian Development Bank's latest Asian Development Outlook April 2026 forecasted Bangladesh's gross domestic product (GDP) to grow by 4% in FY26 and 4.7% in FY27, up from 3.5% in FY25.
Inflation is projected to remain elevated at 9% in FY26, despite some easing, reflecting persistently high global energy prices and ongoing supply disruptions. It is expected to moderate to 8.5% in FY27 as external shocks subside and domestic supply conditions improve, reads the ADB report.
It was warned that the downside to the outlook remains substantial, particularly if the conflict is prolonged.
Disruptions to global energy markets, shipping routes, and supply chains could drive sustained increases in oil and gas prices, intensifying domestic inflationary pressures and complicating ongoing disinflation efforts, thereby constraining macroeconomic policy flexibility.
