One month into Iran war, only hard choices for Trump

Highlights:

• Trump faces decision to escalate or negotiate exit from Iran conflict
• Iran's retaliation hits global oil supply, Strait of Hormuz remains blocked
• Diplomatic efforts face hurdles, Iran deeply sceptical of Trump's intentions

With global energy prices up and his job approval ratings down, Donald Trump faces stark choices after a month of war against Iran: cut a potentially flawed deal and get out or escalate militarily and risk a prolonged conflict that could consume his presidency.

Despite a flurry of diplomatic activity, Trump ends another week of the joint US-Israeli campaign struggling to contain a widening Middle East crisis as a defiant Iran maintains a chokehold on Gulf oil and gas shipments and continues missile and drone strikes across the region.

The central question now, say analysts, is whether Trump is ready to wind down or ramp up what critics have called a war of choice, one that has ignited the worst global energy supply shock in ‌history and spread far beyond the region.

Trump has told aides he wants to avoid a "forever war" and find a negotiated exit, urging them to stress the four-to-six-week duration of hostilities he has outlined publicly, a senior White House official said, adding that such a timeline appears "shaky."

At the same time, Trump has threatened a major military escalation if talks fail.

Trump's diplomatic overtures to Iran, including a 15-point peace proposal sent via a backchannel with Pakistan, appeared to demonstrate an increasingly urgent search for an off-ramp. But it remains unclear whether there are currently any realistic prospects for fruitful negotiations.

"President Trump has poor options all around to end the war," said Jonathan Panikoff, former US deputy national intelligence officer for the Middle East. "Part of the challenge is the lack of clarity related to what a satisfactory outcome would be."

A White House official insisted that the Iran campaign "will conclude when the commander-in-chief determines that our objectives are met" and that Trump had laid out explicit goals.

Struggling to contain expanding war

Apparently hedging his bets, Trump is deploying thousands more US troops to the region and warning Iran of an intensified onslaught, possibly including the use of ground troops, if it does not yield to his demands.

Analysts say such a show of force could be aimed at creating leverage for concessions from Tehran but risks drawing the US into a more protracted conflict, with any commitment ⁠of boots on Iranian soil likely to anger many American voters.

Another possible scenario, experts say, would be for the US to wage a final major air assault in "Operation Epic Fury" to further degrade Iran's military capabilities and nuclear sites, after which Trump would declare victory and walk away, saying his war objectives had been achieved.

But such a claim would ring hollow unless the vital Strait of Hormuz is completely reopened, which Iran is so far refusing to allow. Trump has voiced frustration over European allies' refusal to send warships to help secure the waterway.

Trump, who has repeatedly vowed to keep the US out of foreign conflicts, is seemingly struggling to contain the expanding war that he started along with Israel.

Even as he has continued issuing triumphalist assessments, he has increasingly geared his messaging to reassuring nervous financial markets, pressing senior aides to emphasise that the war will be over soon, according to the senior White House official, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss internal deliberations.

But the lack of a clear exit strategy carries dangers both for Trump's presidential legacy and his party's prospects as Republicans scramble to defend narrow majorities in Congress in the November midterm elections.

Trump's biggest miscalculation has been the extent of Tehran's retaliation. It has used its remaining missiles and drones to strike Israel and neighbouring Gulf states and mostly close the Strait of Hormuz, the conduit for one-fifth of the world's oil, sending shockwaves through the global economy.

"The Iranian government's bet is they can take more pain for longer than their adversaries, and they might be right," said Jon Alterman of the Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank in Washington.

The White House official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said Trump and his team were "well-prepared" for Iran's response in the strait and are confident it will reopen soon.

Even so, the clearest sign of Trump's growing anxiety about the war came on Monday with his dramatic climbdown from a threat to destroy Iran's power grid if it did not allow shipping to resume through the strait.

In a move widely seen as intended to calm markets, he declared a five-day pause in carrying out his threat in order to give diplomacy a chance. On Thursday, he extended that ‌for another 10 days.

At ⁠the same time, pressure is building at home.

Opinion polls show the war is overwhelmingly unpopular with Americans, and while Trump's MAGA movement has mostly stood with him, his grip on his political base could weaken if the economic impact, including high gas prices, persists.

Trump's overall approval rating has fallen to 36%, the lowest since his return to the White House, a Reuters/Ipsos poll completed on Monday found.

The White House has grown increasingly worried about the political fallout from the war, a former senior Trump administration official told Reuters, citing concerns expressed by Republican lawmakers about the coming midterm elections.

In an indication of growing Republican disquiet, US Representative Mike Rogers, chair of the House Armed Services Committee, criticised the administration on Thursday for not providing enough information on the scope of the Iran campaign.

Pushing back, the White House official said Trump aides had briefed Congress numerous times before and during the war.

Fraught diplomacy complicated by killings

For now, however, the diplomatic path offers no easy solutions.

The 15-point plan put forth by Trump is similar to what Iran had mostly rejected in pre-war negotiations and includes some elements that would be hard to enforce. The demands range from dismantling Iran's nuclear program and curbing its missile arsenal to abandoning its ⁠proxy groups and effectively handing over control of the strait.

Iran called the US offer unfair and unrealistic - though it did not rule out further indirect contacts.

While Trump insisted on Thursday that Iran was "begging" to reach a deal, the country's rulers appear in no rush to negotiate an end to the conflict, analysts say, since they believe they will be in a position to claim victory simply by surviving.

Complicating any diplomatic effort has been the replacement of some leaders killed in US-Israeli airstrikes with even more hardline successors, analysts say. The rulers have made clear their distrust of Trump, who twice in the past year has launched airstrikes while both sides were still negotiating.

"The president is willing to listen, but if they fail to accept the reality of the current moment, they will be hit harder than ever ⁠before," said the White House official.

Israeli officials, meanwhile, have signalled unease that Trump might make concessions that could tie their hands in further strikes against Iran.

Washington's Gulf allies may also resent a hasty US exit, given they could be left with a wounded, hostile neighbour.

Contradictory signals keep opponents off-balance

If Trump is indeed prepared to deploy ground forces, he could take over Iran's Kharg Island oil hub or other strategic islands, mount operations along its coast or send special forces for what would be a complex attempt to seize its stockpile of highly enriched uranium believed mostly buried underground by US-Israeli bombing last June.

Such moves could spiral into a broader conflict evoking echoes of the long-running wars in Iraq and Afghanistan that Trump has promised the US would never ⁠be dragged into on his watch. They would also risk increased American casualties and raise more questions about US mission objectives.

Gulf allies have warned the administration not to put US troops on the ground in Iran, saying it could trigger more retaliation from Tehran, possibly against their energy and civilian infrastructure, a senior Gulf official said on condition of anonymity.

The White House official said Trump had made clear "he has no plans to send ground troops anywhere at this time," but added that he always keeps all options on the table.

For now, Trump is keeping the world guessing, one moment making pronouncements aimed at soothing volatile markets and in the next issuing threats that spike energy prices.

"Trump traffics in contradictory signals," said Laura Blumenfeld of the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies in Washington. "He is a one-man 'fog of war' messaging machine to keep opponents off-balance."