Bangladesh’s gas security depends on drilling the right wells
Bangladesh should move away from counting the number of wells drilled, and instead focus on how much useful gas is added and how quickly it can ease the crisis
The recent disruption of an LNG terminal has highlighted the vulnerability associated with Bangladesh's heavy reliance on imported gas. It is clear that Bangladesh cannot depend on LNG imports alone to bridge the growing gap between gas supply and demand. At the same time, greater use of renewable energy can help reduce pressure on the gas sector, particularly in power generation. However, in the near and medium term, increasing domestic gas production must remain a national priority.
Without sustained exploration and development, Bangladesh cannot increase domestic gas production on a lasting basis. Additional domestic gas can come from the discovery of new gas fields, further development of existing fields, drilling in and around known gas-bearing areas, and improved recovery from producing reservoirs.
Bangladesh has therefore taken the right approach by significantly expanding its drilling programme—from an initial plan of around 100 wells to a broader target of up to 150 wells by 2031, including new drilling and workover activities.
The next, and more important, challenge is to prioritise these wells effectively so that Bangladesh can maximise additional gas production in the shortest possible time while also maximising the economic benefit. Bangladesh does not simply need more drilling—but better-targeted drilling. During a gas crisis, the priority should be wells that can add reserves quickly, have a high probability of success, and can be brought into production rapidly.
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Prioritising the right wells
The number of wells drilled should not be the main measure of exploration success. A large drilling programme may produce only a small increase in gas reserves and production if the wells are not selected carefully. Bangladesh should adopt a two-horizon exploration strategy — addressing the immediate gas shortage while simultaneously preparing for the country's long-term energy needs.
Horizon 1—Immediate gas: This represents the crisis period, during which the immediate objective should be to add gas reserves and production as quickly as possible and bring the supply situation to a more manageable level. This phase may extend for around one year, depending on drilling success and the time required to bring newly discovered or developed gas into production.
Horizon 2—Future gas: This represents sustained long-term development, focusing on maintaining production, replacing depleted reserves, discovering and developing new resources, and ensuring a stable and sustainable gas supply for the future.
By pursuing both horizons simultaneously, Bangladesh can address the immediate gas shortage without compromising the exploration and reserve replacement needed to secure the country's future gas supply. During the current crisis, however, the key question should be: Which wells can provide the most additional gas, have the best chance of success, and bring gas into production in the shortest possible time?
In response, we propose a three-category system—A, B and C—for prioritising wells. The categories would consider three basic factors: how much gas a well could produce, how likely it is to succeed, and how quickly the gas could reach consumers. This would help Bangladesh move away from simply counting how many wells are drilled and instead focus on how much useful gas is actually added and how quickly it can help reduce the gas shortage.
Category A: Immediate-priority wells
As an initial guideline, Category A could include opportunities with substantial recoverable gas potential—around 50 Bcf or more—combined with a high probability of success and a short time to production.
The cutoff value is not rigid but serves as an indicative threshold. A smaller prospect could also receive priority if it can be brought into production very quickly or has strong economic value. Thus, the highest-priority Category A wells should be drilled as soon as possible.
Category A should not be limited to existing fields or development wells. A new exploration well can also be a Category A well if available geological information indicates a high chance of success and significant gas potential. The selected Category A wells should then be ranked using Expected Monetary Value (EMV), as this helps decision-makers compare the potential benefits of a successful well with the financial risk of drilling an unsuccessful one.
The number of wells drilled should not be the main measure of exploration success. A large drilling programme may produce only a small increase in gas reserves and production if the wells are not selected carefully.
The main purpose of Category A is to add reserves quickly and increase gas production as soon as possible. Existing fields and already discovered gas resources are particularly attractive because they usually involve less geological uncertainty and may already have pipelines, processing facilities and other infrastructure. Appraisal wells, near-field wells and infill wells can also bring gas into production faster than many frontier exploration projects.
Before final selection, these opportunities should be evaluated using subsurface uncertainty and decision-tree analysis to reduce drilling risks. These tools cannot guarantee drilling success, but they can help identify key uncertainties, assess possible outcomes, and select wells with a better balance between gas potential and risk. Category A wells should therefore receive the highest priority for drilling rigs, technical resources and management attention.
Category B: Selective and risk-adjusted wells
Category B would include wells with moderate uncertainty and potentially significant gas potential for consideration in the second phase. These may include development, in-field, appraisal or exploration wells where the probability of success is lower than for Category A, but the potential gas addition remains attractive. These wells should undergo further technical and economic evaluation before drilling, particularly if new data or information become available.
The assessment should consider the probability of geological success, expected recoverable gas, reservoir uncertainty, structural and fault-seal uncertainty, infrastructure requirements, Expected Monetary Value (EMV), Net Present Value (NPV), and sensitivity analysis. As additional seismic interpretation, seismic reprocessing, geological studies or other technical work significantly reduce uncertainty, these activities should be completed before drilling.
This helps avoid two extremes: drilling every prospect immediately without sufficient evaluation, or postponing potentially valuable opportunities indefinitely. Development of Category B wells should therefore be the second priority after the most promising Category A opportunities have been exhausted.
The system emphasises continuous evaluation, reshuffling and re-prioritisation of wells, allowing attractive opportunities to move to a higher priority when new information improves their technical or economic assessment. This approach aims to maximise additional gas production while ensuring that drilling resources are directed towards the most promising opportunities.
Category C: Frontier and high-risk opportunities
Category C should consist mainly of frontier, high-risk, marginal or low-confidence prospects. Although they should receive lower priority during the initial crisis period, selected Category C activities should continue in parallel throughout all phases as part of Horizon 2—Future gas. Thus, Bangladesh can continue building a pipeline of future exploration opportunities while addressing the immediate gas shortage.
During an acute supply crisis, Category C wells, however, should not consume the majority of the country's limited drilling capacity and financial resources. They should be pursued selectively, particularly if additional geological and geophysical studies significantly improve their probability of success. Frontier exploration is essential for Bangladesh's long-term energy security because the country cannot depend indefinitely on its existing gas fields. Category C prospects might have significant long-term or strategic value but generally involve greater geological uncertainty, limited infrastructure, longer development timelines, or lower potential for immediate production.
Therefore, frontier exploration activities should not be halted during the current crisis. A strategy focused only on immediate gas production, while helping address today's shortage, could create a more serious supply problem in the future. Seismic surveys, basin analysis, geological and geophysical studies, and frontier exploration planning should continue in parallel, even while drilling resources are prioritised for higher-probability wells. Following detailed technical evaluation, if a frontier prospect is found to have sufficient geological potential, commercial viability and an acceptable risk level, it can be reclassified and moved to Category A or Category B for accelerated drilling.
The overall strategy is therefore simple: produce more gas today while continuously preparing for the gas of tomorrow.
A gas-reserve-driven management system
The three categories should be supported by a common decision matrix. Each candidate well should be ranked according to probability of success, expected recoverable gas, time to gas to pipeline, economic value and strategic importance. Economic tools such as EMV, NPV and IRR can be used to compare the financial attractiveness of shortlisted wells. These tools should support geological judgment, not replace it. A particularly important management indicator should be the Reserve Replacement Ratio (RRR):
RRR = New Reserves Added / Annual Production × 100
A sustained RRR below 100% means that reserves are being consumed faster than they are being replaced. Bangladesh should therefore measure exploration success not simply by the number of wells drilled, but by the 2P reserves added, production created and reserves replaced.
Bangladesh's gas crisis is urgent, and accelerating drilling is a timely step. However, drilling more wells alone is not a cost-effective solution; the focus must be on selecting the right wells and bringing gas into production quickly, based on a two-horizon strategy.
Horizon 1 (Immediate Gas) should prioritise Category A and selected Category B wells with high potential for rapid conversion into production. Simultaneously, Horizon 2 (Future Gas) should continue in parallel through Category C prospects, seismic programmes, basin studies, reprocessing and reinterpretation of existing data, and frontier exploration. Horizon 2 should not be a separate or isolated programme. When new studies identify a high-confidence and commercially attractive prospect, it should be reassessed and, where justified, recategorised for accelerated drilling.
This approach ensures both immediate gas supply and long-term resource development. If implemented effectively, the drilling programme will become a tool for converting petroleum potential into production and reducing dependence on imported LNG.
Hoshne Ara Banu is a petroleum engineer and academic.
