An internal document shows Vietnamese military preparing for possible US war

An internal Vietnamese military document has revealed deep concerns within Hanoi's defense establishment about a potential American "war of aggression," even as Vietnam maintains its highest-ever level of diplomatic relations with Washington.

The document, prepared by Vietnam's Ministry of Defense in 24 August 2024 and titled "The 2nd US Invasion Plan," portrays the United States as a "belligerent" power and urges vigilance against what it describes as possible US-led attempts to destabilise Vietnam's socialist system, according to a report released on Tuesday by The 88 Project, a human rights organisation focused on Vietnam.

The disclosure comes roughly a year after Vietnam and the United States elevated their relationship to a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership, placing Washington on par with Hanoi's ties to China and Russia. The internal assessment highlights what analysts describe as a dual-track approach in Vietnam's foreign policy: outward diplomatic engagement alongside persistent internal suspicion.

Beyond fears of direct military conflict, the document underscores a long-standing anxiety within Vietnam's Communist leadership about so-called "color revolutions," mass uprisings that have toppled governments elsewhere, including Ukraine's Orange Revolution in 2004 and the Philippines' People Power movement in 1986. Vietnamese planners warn that external forces could exploit issues such as democracy, human rights, ethnicity and religion to engineer political change.

According to the document, while the risk of an immediate war against Vietnam is considered low, the US and its allies are seen as willing to use unconventional warfare or manufacture pretexts for intervention against countries that fall outside Washington's strategic orbit, particularly as part of efforts to counter China's influence in Asia.

Ben Swanton, co-director of The 88 Project and author of the analysis, said the concerns outlined in the document reflect a broad consensus within Vietnam's government rather than the views of a marginal faction. He noted that Hanoi does not see the US as a true strategic partner and has no intention of joining any anti-China alliance.

Vietnam's Foreign Ministry did not respond to requests for comment on the report or the document. The US State Department declined to address the contents directly but reiterated that the bilateral partnership is intended to promote shared prosperity and regional stability.

Analysts say the document offers rare insight into internal debates within Vietnam's leadership, particularly tensions between reform-minded officials and more conservative, military-aligned figures who remain deeply shaped by memories of the Vietnam War and wary of foreign interference. While Western diplomats often view China as Hanoi's primary security concern, the document suggests that regime stability and the threat of internal unrest remain paramount.

The assessment also reflects Vietnam's delicate balancing act. China remains its largest overall trading partner, while the United States is its biggest export market, binding Hanoi economically to both powers even as strategic mistrust persists.

Observers say the return of US President Donald Trump for a second term has both eased and complicated Vietnamese concerns. While Washington has softened its emphasis on democracy and human rights, recent US actions abroad have reinforced fears among Vietnamese conservatives about American willingness to violate national sovereignty.

Overall, analysts suggest Vietnam's leadership continues to engage the United States pragmatically, but with enduring caution rooted in history, ideology and fears of political destabilisation.