Panic, confusion and weak buildings: 5.7 quake shows how unprepared we are

A magnitude 5.7 earthquake struck Bangladesh, and while the physical damage may appear moderate, the deeper implications for human safety and national economic stability are far more alarming. 

Before discussing technical needs or scientific warnings, the foremost priority is the stark reality: a major earthquake striking Dhaka could claim tens of thousands of lives and inflict unprecedented economic devastation.

According to national seismic risk assessments under the CDMP and several international studies, a high-magnitude earthquake in the capital could result in $12–15 billion in direct and indirect losses. 

These losses would stem from collapsed buildings, damaged lifelines, business shutdowns, transportation disruption, and long-term displacement. Such figures represent not only statistical projections but the outline of an economic catastrophe capable of setting Bangladesh back by years, if not decades, in national development.

The human toll would be even more devastating. Worst-case scenarios warn of approximately 70,000 possible fatalities and more than 200,000 injuries, depending on the time of day, patterns of structural failure, and population density. 

These projections surpass the aftermath of any previous disaster Bangladesh has faced, underscoring the urgent need to prioritise human safety and economic resilience in all policy and planning decisions.

The recent earthquake also revealed how dangerously unprepared the public remains when responding to seismic events. Panic-driven behaviour — particularly rushing downstairs during shaking — caused many of the more than 600 reported injuries. 

Running towards staircases is among the deadliest instincts during an earthquake, as stairwells are often structurally weaker, can fail independently from the main building frame, and quickly become crowded and chaotic.

To prevent unnecessary casualties, experts emphasise a globally recognised life-saving principle: during shaking, stay on the same floor and move towards the stiffer, more stable parts of the building, such as areas near columns, beams, or shear walls, or take shelter under sturdy furniture. Evacuation should only be attempted after the shaking stops. This single behavioural change — if widely understood — could prevent hundreds or even thousands of injuries during moderate or major earthquakes. It must be treated as a national public-awareness priority on par with infrastructure strengthening.

In terms of immediate impact, the 5.7-magnitude earthquake centred in Madhabdi, Narsingdi, caused 10 deaths and more than 600 injuries across Narsingdi, Dhaka, Narayanganj, and nearby districts. Dhaka alone saw fatalities from collapsing railings and brittle structural components in older buildings, while a newborn died after a roadside wall collapsed in Rupganj.

Although the damage was not catastrophic, the event exposed serious weaknesses in public readiness, building conditions, emergency response patterns, and structural vulnerability in dense urban areas. Experts have repeatedly warned that such moderate events may serve as foreshocks to larger seismic ruptures. 

Geological studies show that tectonic stress in the Indian Plate–Burma Plate boundary region has been accumulating for decades, and a major release could result in an earthquake in the 8.2–9.0 magnitude range, far exceeding the recent tremor.

Several researchers and international media outlets have already described the earthquake as a possible precursor to something larger, aligning with earlier seismic-hazard studies that identify multiple active faults beneath Bangladesh's urban regions.

For this reason, Bangladesh cannot afford further delay in deploying the tools and frameworks already developed under the SATREPS-TSUIB project (2016–2022), a joint initiative between the Governments of Bangladesh and Japan. These guidelines were specifically designed to help countries rapidly assess, categorise, and strengthen vulnerable buildings in the shortest possible timeframe.

The TSUIB initiative has produced a suite of practical, field-tested outputs: the Visual Rating (VR) Method for quick vulnerability screening; comprehensive Technical Manuals for Seismic Evaluation of both unreinforced masonry (URM) and reinforced concrete (RC) buildings; detailed Retrofit Design Guidance; and the Guidebook for Urban Resilience in Dhaka, which maps critical vulnerabilities and outlines pathways for citywide seismic-risk reduction. These outputs are not theoretical — they are ready for immediate implementation, requiring only coordinated national commitment, targeted training, and large-scale deployment.

Dhaka's building stock, as identified by CDMP surveys, includes approximately 20–25% URM structures, widely known to be among the most dangerous in earthquakes due to their brittle failure characteristics. Many older RC buildings also suffer from poor detailing, lack of confinement, inadequate reinforcement anchorage, irregular load paths, and degradation with age, making them increasingly vulnerable to seismic forces.

Given the density of these buildings in critical urban zones, the risk of mass structural collapse during a major earthquake is extremely high. Experts therefore urge an immediate nationwide rapid-assessment programme prioritising high-risk zones, high-occupancy buildings (schools, hospitals, markets), and ageing URM structures. 

This programme must be supported by intensive capacity-building for engineers, urban planners, and government officials; strict enforcement of BNBC 2020 during design approvals and construction oversight; and long-term technical partnerships to sustain a scientifically informed resilience strategy.

Although the recent earthquake did not cause severe material damage, it stands as a stark reminder that Bangladesh is running out of time. With fault lines storing immense tectonic energy, a major earthquake is not a hypothetical possibility but a scientifically supported inevitability. 

The combination of extreme urban density, vulnerable building stock, low public awareness, and underprepared emergency mechanisms could lead to one of the region's worst seismic disasters if decisive action is not taken immediately.

Financial losses would be catastrophic; human losses would be immeasurable. Bangladesh must act now — placing human-safety education, public preparedness, financial risk mitigation, and TSUIB's rapid structural assessment and strengthening framework at the highest national priority — to prevent an avoidable disaster of historic scale.

SM Muhaiminul Islam is a researcher and a member of the Institution of Engineers, Bangladesh (IEB). 

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions and views of The Business Standard.