Bihar's 17% Muslim population wields big influence, but fewer candidates in race

As the counting of votes in Bihar state assembly elections is taken up on Friday (14 November), a much-discussed subject is how important are Muslim votes in India's key battleground eastern state?

The question has acquired more urgency following a decline in the number of Muslim candidates fielded by most of the political parties and elected members of the assembly over more than a decade in a state where the Muslim population, according to a the 2022-23 caste survey, constitutes 17.7 percent of its 13.7 crore population,.

Muslims make up more than over 20% in 87 of Bihar's 243 assembly constituencies, making their votes a determining factor in a candidate's quest for an assembly seat. All political parties, taken together, have fielded 56 Muslim candidates this year.

Nearly 75% of the state's Muslims live in northern Bihar. In recent years, the Muslim population in the Seemanchal region comprising Katihar, Purnea and Araria has gone up to 40%. Muslims are the majority in Kishanganj district, outnumbering Hindus and accounting for over 68% of the population there.

Bihar's ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA), including BJP and Janata Dal (United) led by Chief Minister Nitish Kumar-led Nitish Kumar who was once a poster boy of secular political parties, has put up just five Muslim candidates in this year's election, a substantial fall from the previous elections.

Janata Dal (United), contesting 101 seats, has given party tickets to four Muslim candidates (a sharp decline from 11 in the previous poll five years ago) while BJP to none. Among smaller parties of NDA, Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas Paswan) is contesting 29 seats and has  fielded one Muslim candidate, Mohd. Kalimuddin. The other two NDA allies, Hindustani Awam Morcha (Secular) and Rashtriya Lok Morcha are each contesting six seats and have not put up any Muslim nominee.

The anti-NDA coalition has announced 28 Muslim candidates, including 18 by Lalu Prasad Yadav-led Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), which is contesting 143 seats, has fielded 18 Muslim nominees. The coalition's remaining 10 have been fielded by Congress which is contesting 61 seats, two by CPI-ML (Liberation). A small state-centric outfit Vikassheel Insaan Party led by Mukesh Sahani, another ally of the INDIA bloc, has fielded none. RJD has announced that Sahani, who comes from Extremely Backward Caste category, will be Deputy Chief Minister if INDIA is voted to power.

Newly-floated outfit Jan Suraaj Party founded by former poll strategist Prashant Kishor has fielded 21 Muslim candidates, the highest by a single party, out of its total of 116.

In the 2015 assembly election fought in alliance with RJD, Janata Dal (United) had fielded six Muslims, of whom five were elected. In 2010, Janata Dal (U) had fielded 14 Muslims, of whom six had emerged triumphant. In the 2020 election, RJD had fielded 15 Muslims out of its total of 144 candidates and Congress had given tickets to 12 Muslims out of 70 seats it contested.

Congress is has long ceased to be the number one political force in Bihar as Muslims turned away from the party after the 1989 Bhagalpur communal riots and switched over to RJD which projected itself as an alternative before Muslims by stressing on the plank of social justice by uniting backward castes, Dalits and Muslims.

Coming to the representation of elected Muslim representatives in the assembly, one finds that the number of members from the community has fallen. In 2015, the Grand Alliance (RJD-Janata Dal(U)-Congress) saw 24 Muslim MLAs elected representing nearly ten per cent of the total strength of the assembly. Seven of these wins came from mixed constituencies, riding on the back of Muslim-Yadav (MY) coalition. In the 2010 assembly poll, 19 Muslim MLAs were elected and the 2020 elections also resulted in 19 Muslim MLAs being elected. The highest Muslim representation in the assembly was in 1985—34 in  undivided Bihar's 324-seat assembly at the height of Congress dominance in the state.

Political analysts attribute the reluctance of secular parties in giving more tickets to Muslims to apprehension of polarisation of votes against them in the event of being very liberal in nominating them. The same reason is behind the nomination of Muslim candidates in Muslim-dominated constituencies, resulting in a smaller number of Muslim MLAs in the assembly. Earlier, Muslim candidates had won from constituencies with diverse caste and caste compositions even in places where Muslims are under 20 percent .

Of the five Muslim candidates of NDA, four are in Muslim-dominated constituencies of Seemanchal region where Muslims form 40 to -70 per cent of the electorate. Zaman Khan, NDA's Minority Welfare Minister in Bihar is the only exception who has been nominated from Chainpur in Kaimur district, a constituency with a mixed population. In 2020, he had won from there as a Bahujan Samaj Party nominee but he later sided with Nitish Kumar.

Analysts believe one reason Janata Dal(U) nominating four Muslim candidates this time  as against 11 in 2020 is due to the defeat of all the 11 five years ago. It is possible that Nitish Kumar-led party's alliance with BJP was perceived by Muslims as moving away from its secular roots.

All the same time, Nitish Kumar has in the run up to 2025 elections mentioned the several initiatives for Muslims taken since 2005 including scholarships and free coaching for minority community students, hiking madrasas teacher salaries, construction of boundary walls for 8,746 graveyards and an expanded Minority Welfare Department budget. It remains to be seen how Nitish Kumar's decision to persist with the tie-up with BJP which passed the Waqf Property Bill in parliament plays out in this year's poll battle.