Action-based early warnings needed to reduce cascading risks to food security

Experts emphasised the urgent need to develop a Multi-Hazard Early Warning System (MHEWS) as it would enhance Bangladesh's ability to manage overlapping disaster risks and ensure sustainable food security. While some individual disasters can be predicted, early warnings for cascading risks and their long-term impacts are often lacking, they said at a roundtable titled "Early Warning and Early Action for Cascading Risks to Food Security (EWAC)" held in The Business Standard's conference room on 2 July. Saleem Ahmed, associate editor of The Business Standard, moderated the event jointly organised by Practical Action, Chatham House, Citi Foundation, and TBS.

Ahmadul Haque
Additional Secretary, Ministry of Disaster Management and Relief

Disaster management in Bangladesh is no longer limited to saving lives; ensuring livelihoods has become equally important. As part of anticipatory action, agriculture, food security, social protection, and market management must be considered together. We need to plan in advance to prevent food crises and market instability in the aftermath of disasters. The government is shifting from "life-saving" to "livelihood protection," which means agriculture, fisheries, livestock, and nutrition-sensitive food aid are now part of disaster management. Through community food reserves, distribution of nutritious food, and ensuring dignified assistance, we can build a practical and sustainable social protection system. The government currently provides relief at a certain time of the year to ensure food security. However, there are plans to extend this assistance to disaster-affected people to ensure long-term food security in disaster-prone areas.

Mohammad Harun-or-Rashid
Joint Secretary, Ministry of Disaster Management and Relief 
Our goal is to make people resilient to disasters because we cannot avoid them due to our geographical position. In the 1970 Bhola cyclone, about 1 million people died; in the recent Remal cyclone, 20 people died. This shows that despite shortcomings, we've made significant progress in disaster management. Food security is a basic human right. Farmers are among the most vulnerable, losing crops and fish during disasters, making them the most affected. Disasters disrupt food security. We must use early warnings to ensure food security and take risk reduction and emergency measures in advance. If every ministry performs its duties properly, disaster risk can be significantly reduced. The government cannot do it alone, everyone must be involved.

Saleem Ahmed
Associate Editor, The Business Standard
As a communication expert, I believe that experts working in the field have shared important and practical information. The most urgent matter is ensuring messages related to disaster management are communicated clearly and effectively to affected people. Messages may be practical, but often are not easily understood by the general public. Communication and messaging must therefore be made simpler and more relevant.

Ishrat Shabnam
Country Director, Practical Action
Practical Action began with the aim to bring technology to marginalized communities and tune it to their needs. We've worked in this field for 34 years. We've improved early warning in hazard response, but we must connect early warning with food security and assess how much the marginalized benefit from the system and where improvements are needed.

Rakesh Supker
Asia Regional Head of Operations, Practical Action
In disaster-prone countries like Bangladesh, climate-related risks demand coordinated, practical planning. I've seen similarities between Odisha and Bangladesh. After a devastating cyclone in Odisha, I witnessed Bangladeshi youth volunteers helping – an unforgettable experience. Challenges remain in food security, especially women and children's nutrition. All stakeholders must work together to turn today's discussion into action. Practical Action will continue collaborating locally.

Md Tariqul Hasan Rifat
Senior Officer - Climate and Resilience, Practical Action
Bangladesh is highly vulnerable to multiple, often overlapping hazards—including floods, cyclones, and the effects of climate variability such as El Niño. While these events have devastating impacts on lives and livelihoods, there has been limited research exploring how they affect food security through a compound and cascading risk lens. Our research set out to fill this gap by examining how consecutive and interconnected disasters disrupt food systems and how Early Warning Systems (EWS) can be used more effectively to anticipate and mitigate these risks. To capture a comprehensive picture, we adopted a mixed-method approach. We conducted in-depth interviews with marginalized groups under the "Missing Voices" approach. This research project allowed us to gather both statistical data and lived experiences on food access, market disruptions, and the effectiveness of early warning systems.

Farhana Parvin
Research Associate, Practical Action
Despite remarkable advancements in our early warning systems, agricultural production continues to suffer significantly due to recurring hazards, severely disrupting the food system. These cascading risks from production losses to market disruptions ultimately compromise overall food security. Our research highlights the extent of this impact 72% of respondents reported food price hikes following disasters, 27.5% were unable to access essential food items in the local markets, 74.7% experienced transport disruptions, and 62.3% reported market closures. The months of July and September emerged as the most critical periods for food insecurity. These findings underscore the urgent need to consider compound and cascading risks in the design and operation of Early Warning Systems(EWS). It is no longer enough into predict a single hazard-we must anticipate how overlapping and sequential shocks disrupt food systems and livelihoods. To enhance the effectiveness of early warning and early action, we recommend strengthening impact-based forecasting and adopting a Common Alerting Protocol to ensure clear, coordinated, and timely communication across all levels.

SM Munjurul Hannan Khan
Executive Director, NACOM Bangladesh & Former Additional Secretary, MoEFCC
In Bangladesh, we usually associate hazards with floods and cyclones. But we overlook droughts, river erosion, salinity, etc. We even refer to shelters as cyclone shelters only. The government must provide forecasts for all types of disasters and make those messages easily understandable to everyone. Early warning systems should not only ensure food security but also livelihood security. Existing shelters are under-resourced. There is a severe lack of coordination among ministries regarding early warning systems.

Dr Md Shameem Hassan Bhuiyan
Deputy Director, Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD) PRL
Due to Bangladesh's geographical variability, forecasting isn't always accurate. What farmers need isn't the rainfall amount, but what actions to take based on that. Forecasting should be action-based. If we could develop platform where a farmer inputs transplanting dates and receives tailored advice, that would be useful.

Md Shamsuddoha
Chief Executive, Center for Participatory Research and Development
We only talk about the primary impacts of disasters. But issues like lack of drinking water, salinity, migration, health problems, and production losses are long-term. If we can provide early warning for these, many losses can be mitigated. Messages are often based on engineering data but overlook social and economic factors, making them difficult for communities to understand. Messages should incorporate the views of locals, indigenous communities, students, and vulnerable groups.

AKM Saifuddin
Superintendent Engineer, Bangladesh Water Development Board (BWDB)
Besides floods and cyclones, drought should also be included in early warning systems. Coordinated work with various agencies continues, but misinformation from unverified sources often confuses farmers. Media must use authentic information sources.

Jannatul Mawa
Executive Director, BINDU Nari Unnoyon Sangathan
Coming from a coastal area, I know early warnings are only given for floods and cyclones, not others. Women are the most at risk and lack access to technology. In remote islands, shelters are far, leading families to avoid them, especially due to gender-based concerns. Warnings must be communicated in ways they understand.

Sarder Udoy Raihan
Executive Engineer, Flood Forecasting and Warning Center (FFWC)
Various agencies have clearly defined responsibilities. Long-term forecasting committees include meteorology, water development, and agriculture departments. With increased use of digital platforms, data flow and warnings can be improved in an integrated way.

Md Shahjahan Shaju
Coordinator, EW4All, World Food Programme
The government aims to include everyone under early warning systems by 2027. Implementation requires coordination among ministries. The challenge lies in impact-based forecasts; disasters affect different regions differently. Warnings must be localised and language-sensitive. A national protocol has been introduced, but further training is needed.

Dr Syeda Zinia Rashid
Program Manager, Embassy of Switzerland
Despite relatively high agricultural and livestock output, Bangladesh still faces seasonal food insecurity. Char areas – 10% of the land – are particularly vulnerable but often ignored in policy. In one project, we connected char communities to markets. Research showed that private sector investment is crucial for food security in such areas.

Towhidul Islam Dipu
Senior Disaster Manager, International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC)
We focus on awareness and preparedness to integrate food security and livelihoods into disaster management. We prioritise pre-disaster actions so that communities can evacuate and act before harm occurs.

Dr Mazharul Aziz
Former Deputy Director, Department of Agricultural Extension (DAE)
The mindset that early warning always implies a disaster must change. Building such awareness is a key challenge. Capacity building is vital so that forecasts can be used effectively. In haor regions, post-harvest measures (like transport) must be prepared in advance, with proper funding.

Dr Manoranjan Kumar Mondal
Principal Scientist, IRRI
Coastal Bangladesh faces floods, cyclones, and drought, but these can also be harnessed positively. If info doesn't reach farmers in time, they can't prepare. For example, 50mm of rain ruins crops unless sluice gates are opened at the right time, yet no agency takes ownership of this. Proper water management is critical.

Sanjib Biswas
Deputy Head of Delegation, Swiss Red Cross in Bangladesh
Every discipline has its own language. In disaster management, messages still feel complicated for the general public. We need sector- specific messaging that's easy to grasp. Volunteerism is part of our culture and should be institutionalized to enhance community engagement.

Dr Sikander Khan Tanveer
Senior Program Specialist (Crops), SAARC Agriculture Centre (SAC)
In today's world, especially in climate and disaster management, both advanced and local technologies are vital. We must turn local innovations and resources into strengths and use them effectively across all disaster phases.

Shekh Mohi Uddin
Consortium Manager, Action Against Hunger
In cyclone surveys, despite receiving warnings, preparedness varied – 97% in one area vs 3% in another. This shows that just providing forecasts isn't enough. People must understand them. Awareness should be built at the school level, with local committees actively involved. Forecast literacy must be part of the curriculum.