US steps out, Brazil steps in

If the climate crisis were a ship, it would be the Titanic — just as it hit the iceberg. The year 2024 was the first one to reach 1.5°C above the pre-industrial levels, which the Paris Agreement defined as the maximum temperature rise deemed acceptable for humanity to still have a chance of overcoming the crisis. Soon, this ship will start sinking, drowning people with it.

Meanwhile, the control cabin seems to be empty. Last January, the United States announced its withdrawal from the Paris Agreement, set to take effect in January 2026. Donald Trump took this measure in his first term and has done it again now, reinforcing his position against positive environmental policies. From the safety of its leaky rescue boat, the country will probably continue emitting disproportionate amounts of greenhouse gases, as in 2023, when the US was the second largest emitter, responsible for 11.25% of the total emissions worldwide.

Still aboard the ship are other Western nations, also keeping their disproportionately high emissions in the name of development. So far, together with the US, they have been responsible for guiding the worldwide process to combat climate change. In this scenario, the United Nations recognises the need for the rise of a new international environmental leadership.

That is where Brazil stands as a potential candidate. The country will host the next Conference of the Parties (COP) in November 2025. It will take place in Belém, in the state of Pará, in the heart of the Brazilian Amazon forest, which, according to a 2023 study by the NGO CarbonPlan and The Washington Post, is expected to become the world's second hottest urban center by 2050. 

Annually, the summit brings together nations to evaluate climate commitments and push for more ambitious action under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). After last year's COP, in Baku, Azerbaijan — and its relatively weak outcomes — hopes are now focused on the upcoming conference and on Brazil's ability to promote a meaningful event.

According to a UN spokesperson, establishing a bold alliance with Brazil is part of the organization's broader strategy to sustain climate momentum in the face of the US withdrawal. In this sense, UN Secretary-General António Guterres has reportedly held multiple meetings with Brazilian policymakers and President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva to explore a strengthened partnership.

Why Brazil? 

The 30th edition of the COP being held in Brazil is not the only reason for these expectations. The nation is strategically located in the international scenario, in a sort of "middle cabin", with insight into both the first and third classes on this ship. As a developing country, part of the BRICS, and not aligned with major powers, it carries the potential to successfully articulate among conflicting interests.

Also, the current government, in contrast with Jair Bolsonaro's previous one, seems to have a better understanding of the climate issues and environmental crisis. Additionally, Lula was once recognised as an influential leader in the international scenario, capable of engaging constructively with differently-positioned actors, at least during his previous terms. His experience and connections may prove valuable for the expected leadership position. The combination of these political features, then, shall be key to enabling a new environmental arrangement.

Besides these aspects, Brazil's natural resources are also of a unique biodiversity order. The country is home to around 60% of the Amazon Rainforest, an ecosystem identified as one of the climate tipping points, meaning that, if its destruction is not stopped, the forest itself can begin to reinforce global warming. 

What else is on the table?

All these aspects in favour of Brazil, however, do not erase or compensate for the current challenges the country faces. While not being able to stop the Amazon deforestation throughout the decades, the country also ranks among the top five emitters of greenhouse gases.

According to Greenpeace, since 1970, the Brazilian Amazon has lost an area of forest larger than France in size. In 2024, the research institute Imazon computed a rise of 497% in comparison to the previous year in the degradation of the rainforest, including fires and wood extraction. The affected area is equivalent to the entire country of Belgium, and more. The current year of 2025 did not begin any better. Just in January, the deforestation reached an area of 400 football fields a day.

In addition to existing concerns, protests during the Bonn Climate Change Conference — a preparatory event held by the UNFCCC from 16 to 26 June, which shapes negotiations ahead of COP30 — have raised new alarms over recent moves by Brazil. On Tuesday, 17 June, the country's National Petroleum Agency granted concessions for 19 new oil exploration blocks in the Amazon River Mouth Basin. According to specialists and leaders from Indigenous and Quilombola communities, the decision poses significant environmental risks and threatens the rights and livelihoods of local populations.

Even so, the country might still be considered an example when it comes to the energy transition. In 2023, almost half of its energy mix was considered renewable. To put it in perspective, worldwide, in 2022, the percentage of the renewable energy mix was around 14%.

What about the COP?

In addition to these historical points, the adequate management of all COP-related issues is also on the table. With less than five months to the conference, the capacity of Belém and its surroundings to receive such a demanding event is not yet clear. To exemplify, the soaring accommodation costs already represent a problem, raising concerns about who will actually be able to attend the event.

While these are issues that depend on Brazil's action, other aspects can still influence the summit's success and the country's attempt to position itself as an environmental articulator. A majority of nations have not yet submitted their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), a document that outlines the country's emission reduction targets and its adaptation plans under the Paris Agreement.

According to the UNFCCC Executive Secretary, Simon Stiell, NDCs are crucial to the successful development of a COP, mainly in the current decisive moment of planning the next "decade of climate action". "We have already seen several major economies — including Brazil and the UK — send clear signals they are stepping up climate action by submitting bold new plans, because it's entirely in the interest of their economies and their citizens."

What does Brazil say?

Aligned with the UN, the nation seems to be requiring other nations to step up in favour of the environment, too. "We are demanding that the developed world, which has already deforested all its land, finance the preservation of forests in countries that still have them," Lula said in a recent statement. "Everyone has an opinion about the Amazon, but few people actually know it. So when we decided to hold COP in Pará, it was because we wanted people to stop just talking about the Amazon and come see it for themselves."

While the Brazilian president appears to be sure about the rainforest's convincing powers, the success of the conference is not yet guaranteed. If key countries do not publish their NDCs soon enough, hopefully full of serious commitment against climate change, the event might once again disappoint the global community, mainly when it comes to developing countries. Even if Lula wants to secure Brazil this new leadership role, it will only be possible if there is something to lead upon, with the cooperation of other international players.

The issue now is how the country will deal with these possible internal and external shortcomings in order to avoid them negatively impacting the COP's 30th edition. As the climate emergency makes itself evident, there is not much room for failure. The rough waters are out there, and it will take extreme ability from the captain —  Brazil, perhaps —  to navigate through them and change the ship's course in time. Otherwise, the window for effective action may close. Once the ship hits the iceberg, there will be no certainty of salvation —  even for those in rescue boats.

Adriana Figueiredo. Photo: Courtesy

Adriana de Sousa Figueiredo is a Brazilian journalist with experience in science and innovation public sector communication, as well as in regional reporting for news websites, TV, and radio in southern Brazil. She is currently pursuing a Master's degree in International Media Studies at Deutsche Welle Akademie in Bonn, Germany.

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions and views of The Business Standard.