UK risks twice-as-big second Covid wave without better testing, study finds | The Business Standard
Skip to main content
  • Epaper
  • Economy
    • Aviation
    • Banking
    • Bazaar
    • Budget
    • Industry
    • NBR
    • RMG
    • Corporates
  • Stocks
  • Analysis
  • Videos
    • TBS Today
    • TBS Stories
    • TBS World
    • News of the day
    • TBS Programs
    • Podcast
    • Editor's Pick
  • World+Biz
  • Features
    • Panorama
    • The Big Picture
    • Pursuit
    • Habitat
    • Thoughts
    • Splash
    • Mode
    • Tech
    • Explorer
    • Brands
    • In Focus
    • Book Review
    • Earth
    • Food
    • Luxury
    • Wheels
  • Subscribe
    • Epaper
    • GOVT. Ad
  • More
    • Sports
    • TBS Graduates
    • Bangladesh
    • Supplement
    • Infograph
    • Archive
    • Gallery
    • Long Read
    • Interviews
    • Offbeat
    • Magazine
    • Climate Change
    • Health
    • Cartoons
  • বাংলা
The Business Standard

Saturday
May 24, 2025

Sign In
Subscribe
  • Epaper
  • Economy
    • Aviation
    • Banking
    • Bazaar
    • Budget
    • Industry
    • NBR
    • RMG
    • Corporates
  • Stocks
  • Analysis
  • Videos
    • TBS Today
    • TBS Stories
    • TBS World
    • News of the day
    • TBS Programs
    • Podcast
    • Editor's Pick
  • World+Biz
  • Features
    • Panorama
    • The Big Picture
    • Pursuit
    • Habitat
    • Thoughts
    • Splash
    • Mode
    • Tech
    • Explorer
    • Brands
    • In Focus
    • Book Review
    • Earth
    • Food
    • Luxury
    • Wheels
  • Subscribe
    • Epaper
    • GOVT. Ad
  • More
    • Sports
    • TBS Graduates
    • Bangladesh
    • Supplement
    • Infograph
    • Archive
    • Gallery
    • Long Read
    • Interviews
    • Offbeat
    • Magazine
    • Climate Change
    • Health
    • Cartoons
  • বাংলা
SATURDAY, MAY 24, 2025
UK risks twice-as-big second Covid wave without better testing, study finds

Coronavirus chronicle

Reuters
04 August, 2020, 06:30 pm
Last modified: 04 August, 2020, 06:35 pm

Related News

  • Mujibur new president, Mahmuda general secretary of Bangladesh Law Society UK
  • The end of Pax Americana holds opportunities for the UK
  • Tulip claims Bangladesh arrest warrant is 'politically motivated smear'
  • Fresh momentum for Bangladesh-UK to work more closely: British trade envoy
  • Military chiefs gather in UK to discuss Ukraine protections

UK risks twice-as-big second Covid wave without better testing, study finds

The worst scenarios could still be avoided

Reuters
04 August, 2020, 06:30 pm
Last modified: 04 August, 2020, 06:35 pm
FILE PHOTO: A view of a COVID-19 testing station manned by British military personnel inside London's Hyde Park, Britain, May 8, 2020. REUTERS/ Alexander Smith
FILE PHOTO: A view of a COVID-19 testing station manned by British military personnel inside London's Hyde Park, Britain, May 8, 2020. REUTERS/ Alexander Smith

Britain faces a second wave of Covid-19 this winter twice as widespread as the initial outbreak if it reopens schools without a more effective test-and-trace system in place, according to a study published on Tuesday.

Researchers from University College London and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine modelled the impact of reopening schools either on a full- or part-time basis, thus allowing parents to return to work, on the potential spread of the virus.

They concluded a second wave could be prevented if 75 percent of those with symptoms were found and tested and 68 percent of their contacts were traced, or if 87 percent of people with symptoms were found and 40 percent of their contacts tested.

The Business Standard Google News Keep updated, follow The Business Standard's Google news channel

"However, we also predict that in the absence of sufficiently broad test–trace–isolate coverage, reopening of schools combined with accompanied reopening of society across all scenarios might induce a second Covid-19 wave," said the study, published in The Lancet Child and Adolescent Health.

"Our modelling results suggest that full school reopening in September 2020 without an effective test-trace-isolate strategy would result in R rising above 1 and a resulting second wave of infections that would peak in December 2020 and be 2.0-2·3 times the size of the original Covid-19 wave."

The lead author of the study, Jasmina Panovska-Griffiths, said the test-and-trace system in England was currently reaching only about 50 percent of contacts of all those testing positive for Covid-19.

Panovska-Griffiths, lecturer in mathematical modelling at University College London, told BBC radio that the worst scenarios could still be avoided.

"Importantly, what we find is that it is possible to avoid a second epidemic wave if enough people with symptomatic infections can be diagnosed. Their contacts can then be traced and effectively isolated," she said.

"We are the first study that has quantified this, how much this needs to be for the UK."

Schools in Britain closed in March during the national lockdown, except for the children of key workers, and reopened for a small number of pupils in June.

However, the government says all pupils will return to school across the United Kingdom by early September with Prime Minister Boris Johnson saying it is a national priority.

"I think we all accept that test-and-trace is a programme which needs to continue to improve. There is total humility in government about that," junior local government minister Simon Clarke told BBC radio.

"We fully accept that we need to keep driving those numbers up," he said.

Top News

UK / Second Covid wave / testing

Comments

While most comments will be posted if they are on-topic and not abusive, moderation decisions are subjective. Published comments are readers’ own views and The Business Standard does not endorse any of the readers’ comments.

Top Stories

  • PKSF's Tk240cr scheme to guarantee bank loans for micro-financiers
    PKSF's Tk240cr scheme to guarantee bank loans for micro-financiers
  • Nahid Islam, head of National Citizens Party (NCP). File Photo: AFP
    Delhi-backed conspiracies afoot to orchestrate another '1/11' crisis after AL ban: Nahid
  • Savar Cantonment map. Screenshot from Google Maps
    515 cops among 626 sheltered at cantts after July uprising, 435 in Savar

MOST VIEWED

  • Amid rumours, ISPR publishes complete list of 626 individuals sheltered in cantonments after Hasina’s ouster
    Amid rumours, ISPR publishes complete list of 626 individuals sheltered in cantonments after Hasina’s ouster
  • Illustration: TBS
    Prof Yunus considering resignation: Nahid tells BBC Bangla after meeting CA
  • Govt backtracks for now on implementing NBR split
    Govt backtracks for now on implementing NBR split
  • Commuters sit on the floor at Shahbagh metro station amid an increased crowd on 22 May 2025. Photo: Sadiqe Al Ashfaqe/TBS
    Dhaka metro sees spike in passengers amid protest-choked city roads
  • The Advisory Council of the interim government holds a meeting at the state guest house Jamuna in Dhaka on 10 May 2025. Photo: PID
    What CA Yunus discussed with Advisory Council about 'resignation'
  • Five political parties hold meeting at the office of Inslami Andolan on 22 May 2025. Photo: Courtesy
    5 parties, including NCP and Jamaat, agree to support Yunus-led govt to hold polls after reforms

Related News

  • Mujibur new president, Mahmuda general secretary of Bangladesh Law Society UK
  • The end of Pax Americana holds opportunities for the UK
  • Tulip claims Bangladesh arrest warrant is 'politically motivated smear'
  • Fresh momentum for Bangladesh-UK to work more closely: British trade envoy
  • Military chiefs gather in UK to discuss Ukraine protections

Features

The well has a circular opening, approximately ten feet wide. It is inside the house once known as Shakti Oushadhaloy. Photo: Saleh Shafique

The last well in Narinda: A water source older and purer than Wasa

11h | Panorama
The way you drape your shari often depends on your blouse; with different blouses, the style can be adapted accordingly.

Different ways to drape your shari

13h | Mode
Shantana posing with the students of Lalmonirhat Taekwondo Association (LTA), which she founded with the vision of empowering rural girls through martial arts. Photo: Courtesy

They told her not to dream. Shantana decided to become a fighter instead

2d | Panorama
Football presenter Gary Lineker walks outside his home, after resigning from the BBC after 25 years of presenting Match of the Day, in London, Britain. Photo: Reuters

Gary Lineker’s fallout once again exposes Western media’s selective moral compass on Palestine

3d | Features

More Videos from TBS

Rare Bostami Turtles Face Extinction Due to Lack of Conservation

Rare Bostami Turtles Face Extinction Due to Lack of Conservation

12h | TBS Stories
American Army trains fire service in Cox's Bazar to deal with disasters

American Army trains fire service in Cox's Bazar to deal with disasters

13h | TBS Today
An Actor Turned Storyteller

An Actor Turned Storyteller

11h | TBS Programs
Professor Yunus 'thinking about resigning': Nahid Islam

Professor Yunus 'thinking about resigning': Nahid Islam

1d | TBS Today
EMAIL US
contact@tbsnews.net
FOLLOW US
WHATSAPP
+880 1847416158
The Business Standard
  • About Us
  • Contact us
  • Sitemap
  • Advertisement
  • Privacy Policy
  • Comment Policy
Copyright © 2025
The Business Standard All rights reserved
Technical Partner: RSI Lab

Contact Us

The Business Standard

Main Office -4/A, Eskaton Garden, Dhaka- 1000

Phone: +8801847 416158 - 59

Send Opinion articles to - oped.tbs@gmail.com

For advertisement- sales@tbsnews.net