Stalemate over election: Resolving or deepening?
The interim government hinted it may turn to the public for support if its mandate becomes unmanageable. TBS speaks to political and business experts to better understand the implications of these developments and where the country may be headed next
Amidst rising tensions between the interim government and various political parties that led to Chief Adviser Muhammad Yunus considering resignation, Yunus sat down with representatives from three major political parties — BNP, Jamaat-e-Islami and the National Citizens' Party (NCP) — to discuss the path forward.
At the centre of the conversation were contentious issues such as the timing of the next parliamentary election, the scope of institutional reforms, the fate of the July Uprising's legacy, and the interim government's perceived lack of neutrality and overreach.
Amid growing pressure and divergent demands, the interim government warned that its autonomy, justice process, and reform efforts are being obstructed, and hinted it may turn to the public for support if its mandate becomes unmanageable. TBS speaks to political and business experts to better understand the implications of these developments and where the country may be headed next.
'Instability will prevail until electoral roadmap is declared'
A N M Muniruzzaman; President, BIPSS
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The Chief Adviser holds meetings with political parties from time to time, but no new decisions are made by the government based on those discussions. Similarly, in this recent meeting as well, the parties shared their views, but we have not seen any response from the government afterward.
The BNP and other political parties have consistently been demanding an electoral roadmap, and until such a roadmap is declared, a sense of uncertainty and instability will continue to prevail in politics.
Recently, instability has been growing. If this continues, it will hurt the progress we are trying to make.
An election cannot be arranged overnight. It involves a process that requires preparation from both the government and political parties. That's why a clear roadmap is crucial at this point to allow the process to begin. We hope the government will provide a clear decision on this matter soon.
Reform is a continuous process. Reforms on which no consensus can be reached should not be handled by the interim government; instead, they should be left for the next elected government.
The government must ensure that the election is not delayed because our main goal is to establish democracy.
The primary demand of the July-August movement was the restoration of democracy. People's voting rights were taken away, they could not vote in three consecutive elections. Now, ensuring their right to vote should be the main priority. The government should not do anything that delays the election.
'No investor would come to such a politically unstable environment'
Shams Mahmud; President, BTCCI
The political situation in the country is getting worse day by day. This is hurting existing businesses, let alone attracting new investment.
The government is saying that factory owners will be arrested if they do not pay workers' wages and bonuses before Eid. But at the same time, it can't solve the port crisis. We need to earn money through exports to pay the workers. Because of the port problems during Eid, the garment sector is facing big losses. Who will take responsibility for that? In the end, the factories will have to bear the burden.
What I mean is, if the government cannot control the country's instability, it cannot make such statements. If everything were smooth, this kind of statement would have been appreciated.
Every day, someone is holding protests or blocking roads — the government needs to handle these issues. The businesses we operate within Dhaka are being affected. Moreover, this period leading up to Eid is crucial for most SMEs in the country, and they are also being affected.
Meetings with political parties are ongoing, and decisions regarding the election are a separate discussion. Business and the economy should remain unaffected — they must not be made to suffer due to political issues.
If this situation continues, attracting investment will become even more difficult for us, and the challenge will only intensify after the LDC graduation. No investor would be willing to invest in such a highly unstable political environment.
'It's unprecedented that military is calling for elections while parts of civil society, public seeking its delay'
Altaf Parvez; Researcher and Historian
We are currently standing in the midst of deep uncertainty, tension and turmoil. It feels like Bangladesh has entered a risky and unstable phase.
After the mass uprising, we hoped that some fundamental reforms would take place and that the country would return to a democratic process through a free and fair election. But now it seems that neither the reforms have happened nor is the election taking place. Instead, disagreements among political parties are only growing.
In less than a year, not only has national unity fallen apart, but we have reached a point of deep conflict across the country. This will directly affect our society and economy.
At the same time, the region is caught in a cold war — between China and the US, and between India and Pakistan. The lack of political unity makes us more vulnerable in the increasingly tense geopolitical climate.
Bangladesh's survival and progress within this cold war dynamics will depend on civil-military unity and we must rethink our public perception of the army.
In countries like China, Vietnam, Myanmar, and Bangladesh, the armed forces were born out of anti-colonial struggles. When the military originates from a Liberation War, it naturally has a stake in the country's politics — given politics means the process of nation-building and governance.
These forces were not created in a colonial framework; rather, they emerged by resisting colonial domination. They shed blood and gave their lives for the birth of the nation. So it's unrealistic to expect that they would have no say in shaping its future.
It is a rare situation where even the military is calling for elections, while some political parties, parts of civil society, and the public are seeking its delay. Such a scenario is unprecedented in global politics.
Meanwhile, we are focused on reforms while ignoring the people's demand for elections. This is gradually weakening the very foundation of the state. Syria, Libya and Iraq became failed states in this way. Myanmar, too, is at risk of becoming a failed state due to the absence of an elected government. We must keep these examples in mind and act responsibly.
The interim government should quickly carry out the reforms that are realistically possible and announce a clear electoral roadmap. The reforms that aren't feasible now should be left for the next elected government. There is no other way out of this crisis right now.
'A lot will depend on how government handles street agitation'
Mirza M Hassan, PhD; Senior Research Fellow, BIGD
This situation was bound to happen. From the very beginning, we anticipated that not all political parties would be willing to accept the fundamental reforms being discussed.
On one side, there's BNP, and on the other, NCP, Jamaat, and other Islamic parties — a division already exists in practice. So, it was fairly predictable that things would reach this stage and there would be a show of strength on the ground.
I'm afraid that no matter how much we try to solve things through dialogue, sooner or later there will be more show of strength on the ground. We don't want that, but we are worried. This will put pressure on the government, and a lot will depend on whether the government can handle that pressure or not.
Unfortunately, the sustainability of the core reforms this government is seeking will largely depend on politics — and even geopolitics — because these issues have now become part of international political dynamics as well.
Right now, the government has put itself under pressure by pursuing certain unnecessary initiatives, such as the corridor and port issues. At this moment, their focus should have been solely on reforms and the election — they should have limited themselves to just these two priorities.
As part of the democratic process, the election should be organised soon. However, if it takes place without meaningful reforms, there's a risk that the entire process could end in failure. All the sacrifices by thousands of people could end up being in vain.
'BNP's demand for removal of certain advisers reasonable'
David Bergman; British Investigative Journalist
Ideally, all major political forces in the country would come together to "legislate" key reforms before any upcoming election.
However, the BNP — the party that likely would have won at least one, if not more, of the three elections held between 2014 and 2024 had they been free and fair — has made its position clear: elections must take place by the end of the year.
The BNP, the country's biggest party, has a legitimate point. Sixteen months is a substantial length of time for an interim government to have been in power. If, during this period, it has been unable to build a consensus around reforms, that failure should not be used as a reason to delay elections further.
Democrats should support the principle of holding elections in Bangladesh sooner rather than later. If you're aligned with a party that advocates reforms the BNP opposes, the campaign period offers an opportunity to make your case to the public. You can challenge the BNP's stance, promote your vision, and seek voter support accordingly. And if the BNP does win and fails to deliver on promised reforms, there will be a strong basis to hold them accountable and rally public backing for change in the next electoral cycle.
It is difficult to see how the Yunus government can ultimately resist the BNP's demand for timely elections — especially considering it recently conceded to the far less influential student NCP party over the ban on the Awami League.
Regarding the BNP's demand for the removal of certain advisers, there is a reasonable argument to be made. While the student advisers are not formally affiliated with the NCP, they clearly support it.
From a perception standpoint, it would make sense to replace them with more neutral figures at least three months before the election. In fact, there is a broader case for Yunus, three months before the election, to more widely refresh his team with advisers who are popularly regarded as independent of any political party. Doing so would only strengthen the credibility of the election process and help assure the public that the elections are genuinely free and fair.
'Foreign investors want clear transitional roadmap'
Abul Kasem Khan; Chairperson, BUILD
From a business perspective, with due respect to political parties, we want rule of law, stability and risk free investments. Whomever is the government, they must ensure these things to us.
The confusion that has arisen regarding the election is a problem. We are dealing with foreigners, and they always ask us what the transitional roadmap is. They need to know if the investments in Bangladesh will be secure or not.
If there is an elected government with a set amount of time to govern, whether its four or five years, it ensures continuity of the laws and policies during their reign. So, for an interim government, even if they have good policies, foreign investors become concerned that this can change abruptly anytime.
As such, a roadmap of the election would be beneficial. There needs to be a commitment. If we have a date for the election, even if it is a year or two down the road, we can still work around it as long as we have a clear roadmap. This will help us plan our businesses properly.
Secondly, we also want reforms. I think the interim government should look into the reforms suggested by the various commissions as quickly as possible. We do not want the same type of elections resulting in the same type of governments we have seen in the past. We want rule of law and injustice to stop.
Whichever government is elected should ensure good governance. The reforms that are needed for such a government to exist can continue to happen alongside the elections. It is not the case that all reforms must be finished first.
However, for this to happen, the political parties have to cooperate and agree to continue the reforms that have been started if they come into power. We do not want to go to the previous system of ruling with absolute power.
