India-Pakistan conflict escalation could create ripple effects in Bangladesh

Indian officials said that two pilots and a civilian had died after an air force plane crashed in Indian-administered Kashmir. Photo: Reuters

The recent escalation between India and Pakistan, marked by India's missile strikes on alleged terrorist infrastructure in Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir in response to a deadly attack in Indian-controlled Kashmir, has heightened tensions in South Asia. 

While the immediate conflict centres on these two nuclear-armed neighbours, its repercussions could significantly affect Bangladesh, a geographically proximate and economically intertwined nation. 

Though Bangladesh is unlikely to become directly embroiled in a conventional interstate conflict, the broader regional dynamics suggest that it cannot remain entirely insulated from their repercussions. 

Issues may manifest in the form of increased cross-border militancy, arms trafficking, or refugee flows, all of which would strain the country's already stretched border security apparatus. 

Moreover, India's apprehensions regarding any perceived rapprochement between Bangladesh and Pakistan could add a layer of diplomatic tension. 

Navigating a diplomatic tightrope

Bangladesh's political landscape is at a crossroads following the removal of Sheikh Hasina's pro-India administration in 2024. The interim government, led by Muhammad Yunus, faces a polarised society with growing anti-India sentiment, fueled by perceptions of Indian interference and Hasina's refuge in India. 

Rudabeh Shahid, a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council's South Asia Centre, highlights Bangladesh's vulnerability, "Most exposed is Bangladesh, where the recent regime change has removed Sheikh Hasina's pro-India administration and installed an interim government navigating a deeply polarised landscape."

Historically, Bangladesh has leaned toward India, largely due to India's support during the 1971 Liberation War, which led to Bangladesh's independence from Pakistan. 

However, recent developments indicate a warming of ties with Pakistan, including direct trade, military contacts, and simplified visa procedures. This shift complicates Bangladesh's position in an India-Pakistan conflict. Domestic pressure to adopt a nationalist or anti-India stance could clash with economic dependencies on India, forcing the government to maintain neutrality.

Dr Saimum Parvez, a senior researcher at MF Norwegian School of Theology, Religion and Society, underscores the need for a balanced approach, "If the situation escalates into a broader conflict, it becomes even more critical for us to adopt a balanced stance and maintain our neutrality, so that we are not drawn into it under any circumstances." 

Yet, neutrality may be challenging if India perceives Bangladesh's improving relations with Pakistan as a security threat, particularly in India's north-eastern states, where insurgent activities have historically been a concern.

Trade and connectivity at risk

Bangladesh's economy is closely tied to India, with India being its largest trading partner in South Asia. In FY24, India exported $11.06 billion worth of goods to Bangladesh, including cotton, machinery, and food products, while Bangladesh exported $1.89 billion to India, resulting in a significant trade imbalance. 

A further escalation could disrupt this trade through border closures, supply chain interruptions, or heightened security measures at land ports like Benapole.

Air travel is another critical area of concern. Many Bangladeshi flights to the Middle East and Europe rely on Indian airspace, and restrictions or closures could lead to cancellations or costly rerouting. Three international flights en route to Bangladesh have already been forced to alter their routes due to security concerns over the region's airspace.

Dr Parvez notes, "Most of our flights currently fly over Indian airspace. If, in the future, risks arise in relation to this overflight, our trade and connectivity could suffer considerably." For instance, India's recent ban on Pakistani aircraft from its airspace until 23 May 2025 illustrates how quickly regional tensions can disrupt aviation.

The 2019 Balakot airstrike provides a precedent. Pakistan's closure of its airspace forced Indian airlines to reroute flights, incurring losses of over ₹540 crore. While Bangladeshi airlines were not directly banned, similar restrictions in a future conflict could affect their operations, especially if India imposes broader airspace controls. 

Additionally, remittances from Bangladeshi workers in India, though a smaller portion of the $27 billion annual remittance inflow, could be disrupted if travel or visa restrictions are imposed.

Regional security concerns

Regional instability could have significant security implications for Bangladesh. The escalation could increase militancy or terrorism in South Asia, potentially spilling over into Bangladesh, which has faced challenges with extremist groups in the past. 

India's concerns about Bangladesh-Pakistan ties, particularly regarding security in its north-eastern states, could lead to heightened border surveillance or diplomatic tensions.

A refugee influx to Bangladesh is unlikely; however, localised displacement near the India-Bangladesh border could strain resources.

Alex Plitsas, a non-resident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, wrote in a blog post that escalation is unlikely due to calibrated strikes, but he acknowledges the volatility in Kashmir, which could indirectly affect regional stability.

The safety of Bangladeshi citizens in India is a pressing concern. Many travel to India for medical treatment, education, or business, and a conflict could expose them to risks, particularly if anti-foreigner sentiment rises.

Water sharing, while not directly tied to the Indus Waters Treaty between India and Pakistan, is a related concern. India's suspension of the treaty has raised alarms in Pakistan. 

Although Bangladesh has separate agreements, such as the 1996 Ganges Water Sharing Treaty, a preoccupied India might delay negotiations on contentious issues like the Teesta River, further straining bilateral relations.

Safety and public sentiment

Many Bangladeshi citizens travel to India for medical treatment, education, or business, and a conflict could expose them to risks, particularly if anti-foreigner sentiment rises. 

Dr Parvez emphasises, "Although the number may be relatively small, a considerable number of our citizens travel to India at any given time, primarily for medical treatment and other purposes. Their safety and security are now a matter of concern." 

Domestically, the Kashmir conflict, often framed in religious terms, could resonate in Bangladesh, a Muslim-majority nation. Public opinion tends to be sympathetic to Kashmiris, with most viewing India's actions as oppressive. Protests or communal tensions could emerge, challenging the interim government's ability to maintain stability. 

Manal Fatima, an assistant director at the Atlantic Council, notes the broader human cost, "At the centre of this confrontation are the people of Kashmir. In recent days, Kashmiris have faced harassment and physical assaults in parts of Indian-administered Kashmir." 

Such reports could fuel public unrest in Bangladesh.