Bangladesh most exposed as India-Pakistan conflict feared to spillover problems across region: Atlantic Council

As nuclear-powered India and Pakistan engage in military warfare, their neighbours, including Bangladesh, are keeping a watchful eye on the situation, calling for calm. 

In a statement issued today (7 May), Bangladesh's Ministry of Foreign Affairs said the government has urged both countries to show restraint and refrain from taking any steps that could further aggravate the situation.

As the conflict escalates, experts fear it will dampen regional stability, and the geopolitical consequences will surely get more complex. Particularly, Bangladesh is most exposed to the impacts.

In an analysis published by the Atlantic Council, Rudabeh Shahid, a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council's South Asia Center, wrote, "For the non-nuclear members of the South Asia Association of Regional Cooperation (SAARC) surrounding India, countries such as Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Nepal, Bhutan, and the Maldives would find themselves increasingly constrained in a scenario of India-Pakistan escalation over Kashmir—a development that would further entrench the paralysis of regional cooperation under SAARC."

"If tensions between the two nuclear-armed neighbours escalate, the geopolitical and domestic consequences for these smaller South Asian states will be complex. Most exposed is Bangladesh, where the recent regime change has removed Sheikh Hasina's pro-India administration and installed an interim government navigating a deeply polarised landscape," Rudabeh writes.

India-Pakistan tension: Bangladesh expresses concern, urges both the countries to remain calm

"Anti-India sentiment is running high, fueled by perceptions of Indian interference and growing frustration at India for hosting the former Bangladeshi prime minister. The interim leadership, lacking a political mandate, will face acute pressure from sections of civil society to adopt a more assertively nationalist, possibly anti-India, stance. At the same time, India is likely to increase expectations of diplomatic alignment, leaving Dhaka in a highly precarious position," she further explains.

Sri Lanka

Regarding Sri Lanka, Rubadeh writes that the government is likely to maintain a cautious neutrality while quietly accommodating India's regional security posture.

"However, an intensification of the Kashmir conflict could create unrest within Sri Lanka's Muslim communities, particularly if the issue is framed as part of a broader crackdown on Muslim populations. These internal dynamics could destabilise a government already managing economic fragility," she notes. 

Nepal

Rubadeh notes that Nepal would attempt to preserve its balancing act between India and China, but India may view Nepal's neutrality with suspicion.

"Recent bilateral tensions, including territorial disputes and Kathmandu's assertion of greater sovereignty, make it vulnerable to diplomatic pressure. Nepal's large labour force in India also adds an element of economic dependency that could be leveraged," the South Asia expert writes.

She expects Bhutan to most likely align quietly with India, given its close strategic ties, but notes that "any Indian military distraction could embolden Chinese activity along the contested northern border."  

Meanwhile, she expects the Maldives tol face rising Islamist sentiment at home if Kashmir becomes a rallying point. At the strategic level, increased Indian Ocean militarisation will reduce space for Malé's hedging strategy. 

"Overall, a Kashmir flashpoint would harden regional alignments, reduce strategic autonomy, and raise the domestic political costs of neutrality for South Asian non-nuclear states.

"This, in turn, would have implications for the US Indo-Pacific strategy. Washington views India as a cornerstone of its regional balancing efforts against China, particularly through platforms such as the Quad. A protracted India-Pakistan crisis would not only divert India's strategic focus away from the maritime Indo-Pacific and toward its western land borders, but also constrain its ability to act as a net security provider in the region," writes Rudabeh.