India snubs Bangladesh on medical visas, opening way for China

India is resisting pleas by Bangladesh to resume issuing normal volumes of medical visas, citing staffing shortages amid worsening ties, six sources said, giving China rare space to expand similar offerings and build people-to-people ties.

The bulk of India's visas for Bangladeshis in 2023 went to those seeking its affordable private healthcare and Bengali-speaking hospital staff, helping to cement ties between the neighbours and limit China's regional influence.

"When there is a vacuum, others will come and fill the space," one of four Bangladesh sources, most of them diplomats, told Reuters. "Some people are going to Thailand and China."

Since August, India has handed out fewer than 1,000 medical visas each working day, down from a figure of 5,000 to 7,000, said the sources, who all sought anonymity, citing their terms of employment.

The numbers have fallen as relations have cooled after Bangladesh's interim government, led by Nobel peace laureate Muhammad Yunus, replaced India's long-term ally Sheikh Hasina.

Fleeing deadly protests that unseated her in August, Hasina sought refuge in New Delhi, and India has not responded since to Bangladesh's request to send her home for trial.

In 2023, India issued more than 2 million visas to Bangladeshis, most of them on medical grounds, government data from both countries shows. But its withdrawal since has opened an enticing gap for China.

Just this month, a group of Bangladeshis visited the southwestern province of Yunnan for treatment, in a bid to "explore the potential of the medical tourism market", said the Chinese ambassador, Yao Wen.

And at least 14 of its companies have invested more than $230 million in Bangladesh since the interim government took office, the most of any country in that period, Wen said last week.

Bangladesh's de facto prime minister, Yunus, is set to visit China this month to meet President Xi Jinping.

China, with which India is only slowly restoring ties after Himalayan border clashes in 2020, is also considering opening a friendship hospital in Dhaka, the government of Bangladesh has said, and eased access for Bangladeshis seeking treatment there.

China is willing to work together with Bangladesh to continuously deepen and explore mutually beneficial cooperation, a spokesperson of its foreign ministry said.

"The cooperation between China and Bangladesh is not targeted at any third party, nor is it influenced by third-party factors," the spokesperson told Reuters.

The foreign ministries of India and Bangladesh did not respond to requests for comment.

ALIENATION

India's tardy visa processing was alienating not just the government of Bangladesh, but also the wider population, the four sources said, which could keep India out of Dhaka's favour for a long time, as a swift comeback by Hasina's party is unlikely.

India has repeatedly cited staff shortages in its Dhaka embassy for the visa problems, said the diplomats and Indian government sources added that they were concerned about staff security.

New Delhi evacuated many diplomats and their families from its missions in Bangladesh in August after public opinion turned against it for sheltering Hasina, with protesters in the Bangladesh capital attacking an Indian cultural centre.

The Indian government sources said they wanted Bangladeshis with medical conditions to secure access to treatment in India, adding that staff would be added to missions in the neighbouring country when there is "stability in Bangladesh".

One of them also attributed the fewer medical visas to the finding that some were being misused by people looking to "try and escape difficult conditions in Bangladesh".

The visa bottlenecks come against the backdrop of Indian credit lines of more than $7 billion extended to Bangladesh for projects from rail links and Indian economic zones at two ports to nuclear power plant infrastructure and defence purchases.

This month, India's foreign ministry said some of its projects in Bangladesh had been affected and the two sides had discussed "rationalising the project portfolio".

Ties between Bangladesh and China are gathering pace, however.

While a source said India had not formally engaged with any politicians in Bangladesh, a delegation led by a former minister of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party recently went to China at Beijing's invitation.

This week, Yunus told Wen that Bangladesh was ready to further open its market to China, after top solar energy player Longi Green Energy, (601012.SS), agreed to set up an office in Bangladesh and invest in manufacturing.

Wen has also met a top BNP leader over what he called "issues of mutual concern", but gave no further details.

By contrast, the first meeting between Yunus and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is expected only next month on the sidelines of a conference in Thailand, two Indian sources said.

China's regional influence is growing, an Indian analyst said.

"South Asia is undergoing a major strategic shift in which China is becoming one of the biggest players," said Happymon Jacob, who teaches international relations at the Jawaharlal Nehru University in the Indian capital.

"With every South Asian country, the traditional primacy that India enjoyed is being questioned."