First Hasina, now Assad: A super year of elections turn into a year of fleeing for both

2024 is the year of elections, with 72 countries around the world, including Bangladesh, India, Pakistan, the US and Syria, having held elections.

While most were contentious, the fallout from two – Bangladesh and Syria – turned into protests and uprisings. 

The year started with the Bangladesh elections on 7 January. The election was largely criticised as biased and unfair.

This was the third consecutive election under the rule of Sheikh Hasina, the daughter of Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, Bangladesh's first president. 

One event after another led to a peaceful student-led movement against the quota system for government jobs in July. 

The then-prime minister Sheikh Hasina's regime launched huge crackdowns on the protesters, turning the peaceful protest into an uprising against the regime. 

Hasina fell and fled the country on 5 August when people from all over the country entered Dhaka, the capital of Bangladesh, and started their march towards Gonobhaban. 

Hasina ruled Bangladesh for 15 years before fleeing, often claiming that she was following her father's legacy. 

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad also shares a similar fate.

Bashar assumed power on 17 July 2000 following the death of his father, Hafez al-Assad, the Syrian president who ruled the nation since 1971. 

Born and raised in the capital city of Damascus, Bashar wasn't supposed to be the president as he had an elder brother, an heir apparent after his father's death. 

So he graduated from medical school, specialising in ophthalmology, and started working as a doctor in the Syrian Army. 

But it all changed in 1994. 

Bashar's elder brother, Bassel al-Assad, died in a car accident. 

This set the stage for Bashar to be recalled to Syria to take over Bassel's role as the heir apparent. 

The ophthalmologist suddenly had to enter a military academy and take charge of the Syrian occupation of Lebanon in 1998. 

Just shy of a month after his father's death, Assad had to take the role of Syria's president. 

Even calling Bashar's 24-year-long rule a rollercoaster ride would be an understatement. It was marred by protests, violence, civil war, and severe human rights violations that resulted in millions of Syrians seeking refuge in other countries.

To this day, Syria continues to be the world's largest refugee crisis, representing nearly 25% of the global refugee population, according to Concern Worldwide. 

Bashar's rule ended today (8 December) with him fleeing the country and heading to an undisclosed location.

This reminds us of how Hasina fled. The country did not know where its fallen premiere was heading before she entered Indian airspace. 

Bangladesh and Syria: Republic on cover, autocratic in pages

Both Syria and Bangladesh are republics. One is "The Syrian Arab Republic", and the other is "The People's Republic of Bangladesh."

However, in reality, neither Bashar nor Hasina's rule exhibited the qualities required for a democratic system. 

Syria had been a one-party state for decades, while Sheikh Hasina, over her 15 years of rule, effectively muzzled the country's media and targeted the opposition leaders in an attempt to cripple anyone who would dare to challenge her. 

In both countries, citizens knew the outcomes of the next elections even before the dates were revealed. 

Even amid all the government crackdowns, people revolted numerous times. In her rule, Hasina successfully contained all the protests brought out against her regime except the July uprising.

On the other hand, most of the 24-year-long rule of Bashar contained the ongoing Syrian Civil War that started in 2011, followed by Arab Spring protests that called for political reforms and the reinstatement of civil rights in Syria.

Syria had a state of emergency since 1963. The protesters also demanded that it end.

Foreign powers started entering Syria, making the situation a lot more complicated than in any other country around the world.  

For the rest of the Arab nations, it was a wake-up call when the Arab Spring protests, starting in Tunisia, spread to Libya, Egypt, Yemen, Bahrain and Syria. 

But when Bashar ordered a crackdown on protesters in March 2011 that spiralled the country into a civil war and killed nearly half a million people, the Arab League suspended Syria from the league.

Eventually, the US intervened, with the then-US president Barack Obama imposing limited sanctions against the Bashar government in April 2011. 

Russia, on the other hand, took Bashar's side. 

Even in 2015, at a time when all hopes seemed bleak for Bashar, Russian President Vladimir Putin said Russia was providing the Bashar government with sufficiently "serious" help, both logistical and military. 

During the Syrian Civil War, Bashar's government faced allegations of severe human rights and warfare violations, including carrying out at least 300 chemical attacks. 

More recently, France issued an arrest warrant against Bashar over the use of banned chemical weapons against civilians in Syria on 15 November 2023. 

Death of dynasties

The fall of Sheikh Hasina didn't only bring an end to her 15-year-long rule. It also led to the start of the erasure of the Mujib Dynasty. 

This became apparent when Sheikh Mujib's statues, murals and his Dhanmondi 32 home became targets as soon as the news of Hasina fleeing broke out.

A similar situation took place even before the news of Bashar al-Assad fleeing Syria broke out.

Protesters brought down the statue of Hafez al-Assad, ex-Syrian president and the late father of Bashar, effectively ending the Assad Dynasty.

Syria is what Bangladesh may have become

The events that led to the fall of the Assad dynasty in Syria are a lot more complicated than the events that ousted Hasina. 

However, the history of Syria foreshadows what could have been if the July uprising was not a success. 

Bashar was the commander-in-chief of the Syrian Armed Forces. With the army at his disposal, he led the war against his people. 

Shooting at your own people, resulting in millions becoming refugees, is the worst thing any leader can do. 

Bashar al-Assad did exactly that. 

From the discussions that came to light between Sheikh Hasina and the armed forces before she fled the country, it is very clear that Hasina wanted the security forces to interfere and stop the protesters who were heading to Gonobhaban. 

According to sources, the security forces declined to avert further bloodshed despite Hasina blasting them for their "failure," ordering them to resist the people and declining to resign. 

They argued it would cause more casualties. There will be a sea of blood but no assurance of keeping people away from the Ganobhaban.