Yunus-Modi Bimstec meeting: A small step in easing big tensions

Eight months after being sworn in as the Chief Adviser to the interim government of Bangladesh, Dr Yunus is expected to meet Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi for the first time on 4 April on the sidelines of the BIMSTEC summit in Bangkok, according to officials in both Dhaka and Delhi. 

This engagement comes amidst worsening diplomatic ties between the two nations, and could determine the trajectory of future Bangladesh-India relations.

Furthermore, the news comes on the heels of Dr Yunus' visit to China, where his factual comments about the landlocked nature of India's 'seven sisters' states sparked widespread criticism from Indian politicians and media, the most recent in a long list of benign actions by Bangladesh that India has objected to since the ouster of Hasina.

The relationship between India and Bangladesh took a nosedive ever since 5 August last year, when the student-led uprising brought down Sheikh Hasina, whose regime heavily favoured India's strategic goals. Hasina being offered safe haven in India, despite growing calls for her extradition by Bangladesh, increased the tensions between the two neighbours. 

To make matters worse, India has shown mostly belligerence towards Bangladesh and the interim government since last year, repeatedly undermining Bangladesh's attempts at restoring a functioning democracy after 16 years of autocratic rule. 

"While neither country has agreed to an agenda, I believe India will bring up the matter of how Bangladesh is treating minorities in the country. They will also potentially ask about Dr Yunus' comments about the seven sisters. From Bangladesh's side, one major point that will be raised is the status of visas to India. Other than that, Dr Yunus will take the opportunity to thaw the ice that has formed between the two countries, and improve relations so that in the future more substantial discussions can be held."

Faisal Mahmud, Press Minister, Bangladesh High Commission in New Delhi

The Indian media has also carried out a wide scale misinformation campaign against Bangladesh, creating narratives about the country being taken over by Islamist fundamentalists, the army losing control of the situation, and Dr Yunus deliberately attempting to postpone elections in the name of reforms. 

These have served to not only weaken Bangladesh's ties with India diplomatically, but also foster a sense of distrust towards India among the citizens of Bangladesh. Additionally, the misinformation campaign has resulted in harming the image of a precarious Bangladesh in the international scene, with narratives about minority persecution taking centre stage. This narrative, amplified by Indian politicians, appears designed to delegitimise the interim government and stir regional tensions.

On top of all this, India has also closed off visas to Bangladeshis and outright ignored any attempt by Dr Yunus to hold bilateral discussions with Modi. Where Indian politicians have spoken about Bangladesh, they have done so with an air of condescension and admonishment.

For months, Chief Adviser Yunus attempted to establish diplomatic channels with India, but his efforts were met with silence. 

Faisal Mahmud, Press Minister of the Bangladesh High Commission in New Delhi, told The Business Standard, "Chief Advisor Yunus, along with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs had attempted to establish bilateral discussions with India first before China, but they refused."

He added, "India is now practicing what is known as a 'working relationship' with Bangladesh, while Bangladesh is attempting to create what is known as a 'warm relationship' in diplomacy."

With no response from New Delhi, Yunus turned to China, where he was received with a warm welcome. During his visit, he highlighted Bangladesh's strategic geographical position, noting that seven northeastern Indian states are landlocked while Bangladesh has access to the ocean — an observation that India itself has previously acknowledged. However, Indian politicians and media outlets reacted strongly, framing the statement as a geopolitical provocation rather than a factual remark.

Against this backdrop of deteriorating relations, Modi and Yunus have finally agreed to have their long overdue face-to-face meeting.

So, why now?

According to Dr Lailufar Yasmin, professor of International Relations at Dhaka University, India may see this as a perfect opportunity to hold talks with Dr Yunus as it can be considered a win-win situation in a way. 

"This is not a direct bilateral meeting, it's a sofa-side meeting taking place in a third country during an important regional cooperation event. In diplomacy, the country in which the meeting is taking place is thought to have a home advantage, and the optics look good. Since the meeting is taking place in Thailand, neither country will have to give up their pride," she said.

Dr Yasmin further stated that just the fact that the meeting will take place is in and of itself a victory for both countries, with everything that has happened.

Dr Ali Ashraf, chairman of the International Relations Department at Dhaka University, explained that the July Uprising and the subsequent rhetoric from Bangladesh had taken India by surprise. It was not a situation they had anticipated, and they reacted belligerently, while they assessed the situation with the new interim government.

He added that Dr Yunus' revealing to the public that he tried his best to speak to India may have also played a role in Modi's decision to finally meet with him. 

"It would be awkward and a diplomatic embarrassment if India denied meeting Bangladesh yet again, given the fact that Bangladesh has publicly informed us that they sought bilateral discussions with India," Professor Ashraf further said.

The absence of China at BIMSTEC may make India more comfortable while holding discussions, he noted.

It also appears that Dr Yunus' visit to China and subsequent comments may have spurred India into action. 

Faisal Mahmud said that while this is not concrete, multiple sources have confirmed this to him. 

"The Chief Adviser received a warm welcome in China and went on to remind India about their landlocked states. His comments may have influenced Modi to finally meet him face-to-face as India may feel Bangladesh is getting out of line," he added.

What to expect

Despite acknowledging that the meeting taking place itself is enough of a success, Dr Yasmin requests that people temper their expectations. 

"We got an assurance that the meeting will happen, but if it does happen, since it is the first one, it will be more of a formality. I do not think we will be receiving statements about any of the more critical issues like Teesta or border security," she said.

Dr Ashraf agreed, stating that no agenda has been released from Bangladesh's side, making it difficult to know what kind of discussions will take place. He notes that this will be more of a formal meeting where two heads of state officially acknowledge each other. 

"My expectation is that both sides will try their best not to antagonise each other, given it is the first meeting," Professor Ashraf said.

Faisal Mahmud reiterates that this will be a small sofa-side meeting and not a full-fledged bilateral meeting. "This will be a small meeting for 15 minutes maximum on the side, with the true agenda being BIMSTEC. There is not enough time to discuss substantial matters too much, but will open a pathway for future bilateral relations."

However, Mahmud notes that some topics are likely to be brought up. 

"While neither country has agreed to an agenda, I believe India will bring up the matter of how Bangladesh is treating minorities in the country. They will also potentially ask about Dr Yunus' comments about the seven sisters.

"From Bangladesh's side, one major point that will be raised is the status of visas to India. Other than that, Dr Yunus will take the opportunity to thaw the ice that has formed between the two countries, and improve relations so that future more substantial discussions can be held," he said.

While this is a move in a positive direction, the experts caution that this is just a small start, and will not immediately turn around Bangladesh's fraught relationship with India.

Dr Yasmin believes that while this is a step towards normalising relations, it will not happen just yet; India is still figuring things out, trying to make sense of Dr Yunus as a state leader.

"Bangladesh may come out of this and say that India has accepted us, but India will not say that they have entered full bilateral relations with Bangladesh. They will claim that they are working with us, but they will also point out that they are keeping a close eye on us," she said.

Ali Ashraf said that at the very least, India will be less confrontational about Bangladesh in their rhetoric if the meeting goes well.